Thursday, September 4, 2008

Malaysiakini - 30 to 40 MPs Cross Over ? RPK Calculations

Here are some of the article and calculation made by Raja Petra Kamarudin on how he terms between 30 to 40 MPs to cross over.

Raja Petra Kamaruddin: The ‘main players’ in Barisan Nasional are Umno (79 seats), MCA (15 seats), MIC (3 seats) and Gerakan (2 seats). But 13 of Umno’s seats are in Sabah. Therefore, in Peninsular Malaysia, Umno has only 66 seats against MCA’s, MIC’s and Gerakan’s 20 seats (Total 86 for Barisan Nasional versus Pakatan Rakyat’s 80).

Sabah and Sarawak are definitely the Kingmakers. And the fact that, by law, 25% of the Parliament seats must come from Sabah and Sarawak means they shall always be the Kingmakers. And this is even more so now since, in Peninsular Malaysia, Barisan Nasional’s and Pakatan Rakyat’s seats are almost split 50:50.

In fact, in Peninsular Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat garnered more votes than Barisan Nasional (51% versus 49%). Only when you add the votes from Sabah and Sarawak are the percentages reversed. The King of Kings would be PBB, Taib Mahmud’s party in Sarawak, which has 14 seats.

This is followed by Umno in Sabah, which has 13 seats. SUPP and PRS, both in Sarawak, have six seats each. UPKO in Sabah and SPDP in Sarawak have four seats each -- followed by PBS in Sabah (3 seats), SAPP in Sabah (2 seats) and PBRS and LDP, both in Sabah, with one seat each.

The bottom line is, there are 56 Parliament seats in Sabah and Sarawak. Umno controls 13 and the opposition (DAP) two. The balance 41 are controlled by the component members of Barisan Nasional East Malaysia. If you regard the 13 Umno Sabah seats as ‘component member’ seats, then the total ‘hostile’ seats in East Malaysia (within Barisan Nasional) would be 54.

Add the 20 from MCA, MIC and Gerakan, then Pakatan Rakyat would now have 74 seats to fish from. And 30 seats are all Pakatan Rakyat needs. So 74 are plenty. And that is assuming the 66 Umno seats in Peninsular Malaysia remain with Barisan Nasional and do not cross over. But there would be a problem if none of the 79 Umno Members of Parliament cross over.

Pakatan Rakyat has 43 Malay Members of Parliament opposed to 39 non-Malays. That is okay because then Umno can’t say that the non-Malays control the opposition. But if 30 non-Malay Members of Parliament cross over to Pakatan Rakyat, and they get to form the new federal government, then it would be 69 non-Malays opposed to only 43 Malays.

Herein lies the problem and that is why there is a delay in Pakatan Rakyat forming the new federal government. Anwar Ibrahim does have his 30. In fact, it is more than 30. But Anwar has to be very careful in maintaining the ‘balance’. He can’t afford to form the new federal government with 69 or more non-Malay Members of Parliament and only 43 Malays.

Umno would go to town with this and it will ‘prove’ what Umno has been saying these last many months: that the non-Malays have grabbed political power and the Malays have lost political power.

To be honest if we take a look on these calculations, the possibility is there. So for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to Rock The Malaysia Market is likely to happen anytime from now. Be prepare PUTRAJAYA (government's administration office)


Nostradamus said...

To Be Or Not To Be, That is the Question. (Nak jadi ke tak jadi, Itu Soalannya)

Phrase from William Shakespeare's Hamlet, Prince of Denmark
To be, or not to be, that is the Question:
Whether 'tis Nobler in the minde to suffer
The Slings and Arrowes of outragious Fortune,
Or to take Armes against a Sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them: to dye, to sleepe
No more; and by a sleepe, to say we end
The Heart-ake, and the thousand Naturall shockes
That Flesh is heyre too? 'Tis a consummation
Deuoutly to be wish'd. To dye to sleepe,
To sleepe, perchance to Dreame; I, there's the rub,
For in that sleepe of death, what dreames may come,
When we haue shuffel'd off this mortall coile,
Must giue vs pawse. There's the respect
That makes Calamity of so long life:
For who would beare the Whips and Scornes of time,
The Oppressors wrong, the poore mans Contumely,
The pangs of dispriz'd Loue, the Lawes delay,
The insolence of Office, and the Spurnes
That patient merit of the vnworthy takes,
When he himselfe might his Quietus make
With a bare Bodkin? Who would Fardles beare
To grunt and sweat vnder a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The vndiscouered Countrey, from whose Borne
No Traueller returnes, Puzels the will,
And makes vs rather beare those illes we haue,
Then flye to others that we know not of.
Thus Conscience does make Cowards of vs all,
And thus the Natiue hew of Resolution
Is sicklied o're, with the pale cast of Thought,
And enterprizes of great pith and moment,
With this regard their Currants turne away,
And loose the name of Action.

RaceBuster said...

What a sad indictment of politics in Malaysia. Why is PKR playing the race game? Who cares if there are more non-Malays in government? You can't say we don't want the NEP and yet be concerned about the ratio of politicians based on race? This seems inconsistent. Does this mean then that in future there is an election and more non-Malay MP's win that it can't be allowed to happen? Damn the politics of race! You can't say we don't want to be racist but still are race-sensitive. It is time we do what is right for Malaysia than what is racialistic.

Jackie Lee said...

Racebuster, what you are saying just now should be considered by all the poilitical party because this might happen in the future.

I'm quite agreed with you.

Samuel Goh Kim Eng said...

There'll be speculations and calculations
Regarding all the circulations and formulations
With no end to balancing the intricate situations
But never forget the final need to find the best solutions

(C) Samuel Goh Kim Eng - 170908
Wed. 17th Sept. 2008.