Malaysiakini - 30 to 40 MPs Cross Over ? RPK Calculations

Here are some of the article and calculation made by Raja Petra Kamarudin on how he terms between 30 to 40 MPs to cross over.

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Raja Petra Kamaruddin: The ‘main players’ in Barisan Nasional are Umno (79 seats), MCA (15 seats), MIC (3 seats) and Gerakan (2 seats). But 13 of Umno’s seats are in Sabah. Therefore, in Peninsular Malaysia, Umno has only 66 seats against MCA’s, MIC’s and Gerakan’s 20 seats (Total 86 for Barisan Nasional versus Pakatan Rakyat’s 80).

Sabah and Sarawak are definitely the Kingmakers. And the fact that, by law, 25% of the Parliament seats must come from Sabah and Sarawak means they shall always be the Kingmakers. And this is even more so now since, in Peninsular Malaysia, Barisan Nasional’s and Pakatan Rakyat’s seats are almost split 50:50.

In fact, in Peninsular Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat garnered more votes than Barisan Nasional (51% versus 49%). Only when you add the votes from Sabah and Sarawak are the percentages reversed. The King of Kings would be PBB, Taib Mahmud’s party in Sarawak, which has 14 seats.

This is followed by Umno in Sabah, which has 13 seats. SUPP and PRS, both in Sarawak, have six seats each. UPKO in Sabah and SPDP in Sarawak have four seats each -- followed by PBS in Sabah (3 seats), SAPP in Sabah (2 seats) and PBRS and LDP, both in Sabah, with one seat each.

The bottom line is, there are 56 Parliament seats in Sabah and Sarawak. Umno controls 13 and the opposition (DAP) two. The balance 41 are controlled by the component members of Barisan Nasional East Malaysia. If you regard the 13 Umno Sabah seats as ‘component member’ seats, then the total ‘hostile’ seats in East Malaysia (within Barisan Nasional) would be 54.

Add the 20 from MCA, MIC and Gerakan, then Pakatan Rakyat would now have 74 seats to fish from. And 30 seats are all Pakatan Rakyat needs. So 74 are plenty. And that is assuming the 66 Umno seats in Peninsular Malaysia remain with Barisan Nasional and do not cross over. But there would be a problem if none of the 79 Umno Members of Parliament cross over.

Pakatan Rakyat has 43 Malay Members of Parliament opposed to 39 non-Malays. That is okay because then Umno can’t say that the non-Malays control the opposition. But if 30 non-Malay Members of Parliament cross over to Pakatan Rakyat, and they get to form the new federal government, then it would be 69 non-Malays opposed to only 43 Malays.

Herein lies the problem and that is why there is a delay in Pakatan Rakyat forming the new federal government. Anwar Ibrahim does have his 30. In fact, it is more than 30. But Anwar has to be very careful in maintaining the ‘balance’. He can’t afford to form the new federal government with 69 or more non-Malay Members of Parliament and only 43 Malays.

Umno would go to town with this and it will ‘prove’ what Umno has been saying these last many months: that the non-Malays have grabbed political power and the Malays have lost political power.

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To be honest if we take a look on these calculations, the possibility is there. So for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to Rock The Malaysia Market is likely to happen anytime from now. Be prepare PUTRAJAYA (government's administration office)