Monday, December 28, 2009

Towards 2010 New Year Celebration, Time To Accumulate ?

Looking at the current share market movement, we can assume that the Malaysian share market is consolidating. At these moments, we have no interesting subject to discuss about our FBM-KLCI movement. But I still consider our FBM-KLCI still staying quite high at current level with no much correction for the FBM-KLCI.

As we can see from the chart wise, the FBM-KLCI is moving toward side way. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) still staying beyond reasonable level, there is nothing to worry at these moments.

But a closer look at the DJIA chart suggest that this week the DJIA must go higher or created new high with strong volume in order for the current up-trend still intact. With so many investors still on holiday mood couple with the 2010 New Year celebration, we can expect that there won't be so much volume done.

The FBM-KLCI will also face the same scenario with lower volume or turnover done for overall market. This might be a good opportunity to look for good counters as we can see there are so many counters right at these moments staying quite low. Usually towards year end, accumulate some these shares at this moment will bear more chances to gain profit before Chinese New Year celebration set in.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Share Prices Perform Badly ..... Quiet Market Ahead ?

It has been a week I didn't post anything inside my blog. Well I was in Guangzhou, China on a business trip to study and to analyze the investment opportunity in China seafood industry. Well it was a successful trip for me as I have the opportunity to get closer to know more about the China seafood industry closer.

For a minimum investment of RM10,080.00, we will have a return of about RM18,800.00 in two years time. Very good business trips over there where by we would be able to make another extra 80% return from our initial investment of RM10,080.00. The whole business module there is about a new technology to bread Crabs. A new system called Intergrated Crab System (ICS) and was located at Sepang, Selangor.

FBM-KLCI Performance

Let us take a look at the FBM-KLCI performance form last week until now. Basically looking at the chart, there is nothing for us to worry about the performance of FBM-KLCI but we must be well aware although the FBM-KLCI still look good at this moment, share prices for most of the counters are performing quite bad.

With many of them (share prices) inches slowly bit by bit towards the South Pole, it is quite impossible to buy any of these counters as we don't know how low they can go?

For the past one week I have been looking for opportunity to read and to study the next direction of our FBM-KLCI is heading to? But yet, it is not easy to determine where the FBM-KLCI is heading to as our market performance still has been supported by the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Basically if we want to compare and analyze the movement of the FBM-KLCI when the New Year is coming, one has to know that the FBM-KLCI will perform quite dull with no interest or any big participation from big investors or players. They will move quietly and started to show some positive sign once after the New Years arrive or maybe we will have a Chinese New Year rally.

Current market suggested that the share market is going through a consolidation movement and we might have an opportunity to collect at the end of the year but timing is quite important in order for us to make some small profit. If we buy it too early, we might lost the great opportunity but if we didn't trade it carefully enough, we might get burn.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

A Quiet Market Ahead For FBM-KLCI ?

As we can see there is nothing much we can talk about on our Malaysia share market performance. It is just like the same old story and the same old days. The share movement was stagnant with not much interest or involvement from the big players. We can see some rotational play but chances to make some profit out of it, is very slim.

Dow Jones Industrial Average still moving side way with the index still hovering around 10,250 points to 10,550 points. Nothing much also we can suggest where the DJIA is going to make its next move.

Currently looking at total overall charts on Malaysia equities market suggest that the trend is getting weaker and weaker and some even move slowly towards south pole. It seems that our market need to have a very good sharp drop in order to have or to build some solid base for the whole market to build up a new rally but in order for this happen, it would still take some time for the share market to experience this kind of situation.

Whether it can happen or not, it is quite hard to say at this moment and looking at the year of 2009 is going to end, we might be seeing a quiet market ahead. Maybe after new year we might have a new Chinese New Year Rally. Who knows ..... anything can happen.

Friday, December 4, 2009

What Is Dubai And Who Runs It ?

Dubai's government could soon be bankrupt if it does not receive support. The glittering city in the desert has gone from the pinnacle of the world economic boom to the brink of bankruptcy. Christopher Davidson of Durham University explains some of the background.

The inability of the government of Dubai to refinance the massive debts incurred by its largest state-owned company, Dubai World, has sent shockwaves throughout the world prompting many observers to ask not only how severe the economic crisis is, but also what exactly is Dubai and who is in control of it?

What went wrong in Dubai.

Dubai does not have the enormous oil wealth enjoyed by its neighbours such as Abu Dhabi. Its main source of wealth has historically been as a port. In recent years it has sought to make money from property development and luxury tourism, building impressive hotels such as the Burj al-Arab.

The global downturn left many financial workers unemployed. The population fell an estimated 17%, meaning there was little demand for new properties.

There was also less demand for luxury holidays. Dubai companies have borrowed money to fund huge building projects such as "The World" and are now unable to repay it.

There are jitters on financial markets about who lent all the money. European banks are estimated to have lent more than £50bn to the whole of the United Arab Emirates.

Dubai state-backed companies may also have to sell-off some of their assets overseas such as luxury property in London and the Turnberry golf course in Scotland.

Although frequently described as a city state or even as a country in its own right, Dubai is a constituent member of the federation of United Arab Emirates along with six other emirates.

Only one of these, Abu Dhabi, possesses substantial oil reserves, and as such it has dominated most areas of federal politics - including foreign affairs and defence - since the UAE was formed following Britain's withdrawal from the Persian Gulf in 1971.


Dubai, however, has always maintained an air of autonomy within the federation as a result of its long history as a successful free port. When the UAE constitution was drafted this relative independence was taken into account as each emirate was allowed to retain control over its own natural resources and economic development path. Gradually Dubai did allow itself to integrate more fully into the UAE, finally handing over its militia - the Dubai Defence Force - in 1996.

But this move was interpreted at the time as a means of transferring costly services to the federal government so as to allow Dubai to pursue its economic ambitions. With little oil, Dubai's only hope of maintaining a distinct identity from Abu Dhabi was to diversify at a fast pace, building up various non-oil sectors such as luxury tourism and real estate.


On paper it was succeeding, as by 2008 over 95% of its GDP was made up by such sectors. But with the onset of the credit crunch much of this success began to come undone as foreign direct investment and appetite for these activities faded.

Dubai had also badly overextended itself with most of its mega projects - including giant manmade islands - being financed by large debts. With most of these needing to be refinanced in the near future, the emirate's government spent most of 2009 trying to attract international creditors but was largely unsuccessful.

With Abu Dhabi providing some limited financial assistance, both in February 2009 and earlier this week, Dubai managed to keep afloat. But with Abu Dhabi's clear unwillingness to completely bail out Dubai, much attention has been placed on the relationship between the two emirates, especially since the recent default. If Abu Dhabi does not provide more help, then the government of Dubai will soon be bankrupt.


Although the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, recently told journalists to "shut up" and stop referring to Dubai and Abu Dhabi as being separate, and although the Al Maktoum family is of the same tribe as Abu Dhabi's ruling Al Nahyan family - the Bani Yas - the two dynasties nonetheless have a long history of rivalry.

In 1833, Dubai broke away from Abu Dhabi and had to rely on British protection. Even in the 1940s, there was armed conflict between the two neighbours.

More recently, there has been intense competition, including each establishing its own 'national airline' despite obvious overlaps.

As such, further assistance from Abu Dhabi is far from guaranteed. Beyond the government and the ruling family there will also be a broader impact of the crisis in Dubai.

Thousands of migrant workers, mostly from South Asia, are already stranded in the emirate, and there are likely to be more over the coming weeks as more companies cease their operations or face cutbacks. These men will have difficulty returning home.

Similarly many other expatriates, some of them Westerners, will also lose their jobs, and the many foreigners who invested in the emirate's much vaunted real estate sector may see substantial losses on the properties they purchased as investments, retirement homes, or holiday villas.

Christopher Davidson is the author of Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success