Wednesday, December 31, 2008

KL Composite Index To Break the Major Resistance ?

Although the KL Composite Index went up so much and close higher with a gain of 14.28 points, it is still early to say that the market has already make it move. A check on the individual counter suggests that they are still moving around their consolidation level.

The true picture will only appear by next week. It means that there will be another three weeks from now before Chinese New Year arrive to determine whether the KL Composite Index is changing course.

Any significant breakout from the major downtrend (resistance) channel will pave a new way of a new course for the KL Composite Index.

At this moment it is very important to keep an eye on how the KL Composite Index will react. Will the index manage to bring up a new life to Malaysian share market ? By calculating the percentage of losses (accumulation) that might be occour during this time is likely to be very low but in terms of profitability, it is likely to be very high.

Any accumulation been done right now would be the right time to do it but we cannot treat it as an opportunity to make a huge accumulation. It will depend on which counters to accumulate and whether the KL Composite Index movement is solid enough to support the share prices but sometimes our observation might be wrong. The share market might be heading south without any reason ?

One more thing we need to remember that yesterday the KL Composite Index rose 14.28 points, or 1.7 per cent, to close at 881.63. The index was likely being push by the government agency in order to make it close higher for a lovely window dressing for the year 2008.

We must not feel very excited about the index movement yesterday but rather an acknowledgement for us to monitor and to watch closely whether the move created yesterday was a genuine one ? ....... Whether the move was a genuine one or not, something telling me that the market might be heading north ........ Who knows ?..... Anything can happen lately with the recession already hits so many countries around the world.

What is your suggestion or your opinion towards the Malaysian share market right now ? Any idea ..... ???????? Anyway I would like to wish all my readers A HAPPY NEW YEAR.

***** HAPPY NEW YEAR *****

Monday, December 29, 2008

Most Tension Day SEPT 16 2008 - Malaysiakini

Today the world market performance until this afternoon is almost quiet. No major movement at all. Talking about any new sign of bad news right at the moment, I will consider all the major bad news have already came out with some still hidden inside waiting it to be explode.

Two more trading days before we celebrate New Year. How the market will react in these two trading days? I'm expecting it to be quiet and dull. Basically it will depend on how the U.S financial market will perform towards three more trading days.

Currently our country political situation is normal with nothing much to write about. Since the unsuccessful events on Sept 16 to topple Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has kept his mouth silence since. Form all the happening happens in Malaysia, I would call the most tension situation of all the time was the Sept 16, 2008.

Basically I would rather says that because of our political turmoil after March 8, 2008 General Election, it has really help many investors and individual from getting burn and hurt in the share market during the world financial crisis strike that occour in the month of September. Since the election many investors and individual have stay away from the share market because of political turmoil in Malaysia.

Let us recall back one of the press statement issue on Sept 16 by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in order to celebrate the historical day in Malaysia * Malaysia Day * but it never materialized.

Today Malaysians celebrate Malaysia Day – the day our country became whole and our people become united. This day has a new meaning. After years of struggle, after fighting against a system that is corrupt and unjust—we affirm that victory is finally at hand. Our vision of rebuilding this country and bringing its people together, as the founding fathers envisioned, is within reach.

The economy is in turmoil with runaway inflation and joblessness creating widespread discontent. Racial tensions have been rising, exacerbated by the propaganda spread in the government owned mainstream media. The administration has offered no vision to steer the nation out of this quagmire and there is manifest erosion in confidence in the current government.

We in Pakatan Rakyat believe we can save Malaysia from economic ruin and the dangerous politics of racism. We will do so prudently, legally and in doing so we will not jeopardize the security and stability of the country and the safety of its people.

We have received firm commitments from members of Parliament in excess of the number required to form a new government, and our government will reflect the diverse makeup of Malaysian society.

It has been our concern to ensure a peaceful transition of power. We do not wish to see a repeat of what transpired in the Selangor and Perak State governments, where following the victory of Pakatan Rakyat on March 8th, documents were shredded and removed by the outgoing administration.

We furthermore advise radical elements within BN against the abuse of state power to unlawfully harass and detain our supporters. The immediate investigation by the ACA of Dato Seri Yong Teck Lee after the announcement by SAPP of its intention to move a motion of no-confidence against Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is another example of the tactics we reject. The use of the ISA, as has happened to MP Teresa Kok, would be an unlawful impediment to the transition process.

In light these serious concerns, yesterday leaders of Pakatan Rakyat sent a letter to the Prime Minister at 2:30 PM requesting a meeting to discuss the future course of the nation’s leadership and to seek his assurance on the following important matters:

That the BN shall not hinder or prevent their BN MPs from acting in accordance with their conscience, constitutional rights and independent judgment;

That the BN government shall not invoke the Internal Security Act to detain any of the MPs who will join Pakatan Rakyat, or any of the present 82 Pakatan Rakyat MPs;

That the BN government shall not invoke emergency or police powers, or suspend the constitution, or dissolve parliament in response to our intention to form a new government;

That the Barisan Nasional government shall not impose road-blocks and impede the MPs from gaining access to the House of Parliament and the institutions of government.

We believe the Prime Minister will share Pakatan Rakyat’s concerns for the welfare of the people and security of the nation. We are confident he will ensure the BN will act constitutionally and democratically to ensure that the transition will be peaceful, and there will be no actions taken to sabotage the wishes of the people or play on racial tensions in the country.

We appeal to all quarters in Malaysian society to understand our intentions are for the betterment of Malaysian society. The mainstream media, in particular, should accept the reality of these historic times and report fairly, accurately and without bias. The irresponsible tact that is used by the media to obfuscate issues, attack opposition supporters and instigate racial tensions must end immediately.

Following our meeting with the Prime Minister we intend to proceed within the framework established by the Federal Constitution in the formation of a new government, with the assent of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.

ANWAR IBRAHIM
Leader of Opposition
De-facto leader, Keadilan

Saturday, December 27, 2008

CHINESE NEW YEAR RALLY. WILL THEY HAPPEN ?

Overall the Malaysia share market performance can be considered quiet. Nothing very special happens in this few trading days. We have about two more trading days to go before we celebrate the countdown to The Year of 2009. Here I would like to share my view what would really happen usually when the share market is going to close for their window dressing.

Basically the share was unlikely to perform well during the year end. They tend to move side way or we call it as consolidation move. The volume create is very low because investors tend to enjoy their holiday during Christmas and New Year celebration. No doubt the Chinese New Year is just one month from now, the question surrounding us right now is whether there would be a Chinese New Year rally?

Based on the current performance and the volume created in Bursa Malaysia market, it looks like it was unlikely there would be a rally to emerge but I still can remember when the share market start to trade in the beginning of a new year, the share market started to build up some interest with some of the speculation counters started to show more interest.

At the moment I would rather call an accumulation on this market instead of selling. Technically the share market still didn't show any sign of buying signal but right now they are performing or creating a base or a stronger support at their current level. If there is any selldown occour then it would be great as this would be an opportunity to acumulate at lower price.

In order to build up our confident well and to have a rally to emerge, this market need to have a leader to leads their movement couple with the increase in volume traded. No doubt the world financial market performance are dull including the Dow Jones Industrial Average in these few trading days still there is some potential lies ahead on us.

Now I'm thinking how the Malaysia share market is going to perform if the current situation would remain the same unless there is something very special that the government is going to announce. Something special like an announcement of an abolishment of Windfall tax among the plantation company including the IPP company.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

KNM GROUP BERHAD. A GOOD BUY AT RM 0.40 ?

Today the market was quiet. Nothing really happen. It just that Green Packet Berhad is up almost 50 percent already. Today the counter went up another 19 cents to close at RM 1.07 per share.

I didn't expect it to shot up that fast. At the moment the P1 W1MAX business is growing everyday.

KNM Group Bhd a Malaysian oil and gas equipment company. Lately KNM share prices has been getting a lot of support when ever it reach RM 0.40 per share. A check on Bursa Malaysia website stated the company is conducting a huge share buy back program.

Recently the company accumulating about 3,000,000 units total number of shares. Until today they have a total number of shares retained in their treasury 36,290,200 units. With this kind of share buy back by the company, it is a good time to accumulate and follow the bandwagon.

With this kind of support, I would suggest that this is a good level to accumulate. Based on the charts suggest that this counter is already moving out of the downtrend channel and now KNM is moving side way.

It appear that this counter was building up it base before any significant move is being made in these few days.

Anyway I would like to wish a Merry Christmas to all my readers and my friends. To all the bloggers friends around the Malaysia and especially to all the share market bloggers.

* MERRY CHRISTMAS *

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

MK Land Berhad. Good To Invest ?

Yesterday morning the market reacted strongly and went up about 12 points before the KL Composite Index closing with a decline in the evening. At first I was so surprised when the index moves so fast in the morning session but in the evening I didn't expect the KL Composite Index to go down.

With the index decline, most of the share prices post a little bit of decline and some even posted some gain. It's a mix market. For today overall afternoon market closing, it went bad a little bit.

No doubt the share market has been react to all kind of bad news recently and moving like a roller coaster (up and down) still there is some potential for the market to move higher.

As I use to mention in previous article, accumulate on weaknesses. Don't rush in so fast, pick any of your favourite counters and wait for next year rally to appear (Chinese New Year Rally). During this time we might see an unstable market with Dow Jones Industrial Average still playing a very important role to determine the course of the market.

Last two days I have brought a newspaper: The Edge Daily and inside there was an article about MK Land Berhad. Although we all knew that the share prices of MK Land is around RM 0.16 per share; after reading the article and examined it briefly the share prices of MK Land is worth more than it suppose to be. Anyone who is looking forward to invest in this counter needs to read this article in order to understand further about this company.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Malaysia Stock Exchange. Accumulate On Weaknesses ?

Although the Malaysian share market didn't perform well on Friday after their recently huge run up on Thursday, many of the share prices still staying at their comfortable level. With three more trading days before Merry Christmas the share market will likely to behave quietly towards a long holiday for many investors.

A quick check from the charts already suggested that the Malaysian share market is in the process of building up it base and moving towards the north pole.

An indicator call Parabolic SAR indicates that it is time to accumulate any of our favourite counters as the KL Composite Index also showing some sign of moving forward.

If nothing really happen in the world financial market, the market movement will likely to last until March 2009 (UMNO General Election 2009). Still we need to remember that the KL Composite Index still inside the downtrend channel and we need to be careful when we want to choose our favourite counters. (not all counters will move)

On January 20, 2009. The President-Elect Barack Obama will be taking office, it will be a great history in America because he will became the first African-American president. For this occasion I don't think anything bad will happen during the month of January as it will be a start for the new president to address more measure to counter their country financial crisis.

(My 200th articles)

Friday, December 19, 2008

START YOUR ENGINE. Accumulate for CNY Rally ?

Yesterday performance by most of the individual counters started to show sign of moving forward. Even without the help from overseas market, the KL Composite Index managed to climb +18.00 points and close high at 880.50 points. Most of the share prices are advancing accordingly and some of them even show more strength to close with a double digit gains. It was a surprised move by KL Composite Index.

Yesterday without any doubt I have started to accumulate some of these shares. KNM Berhad, Genting Berhad, HeveaBoard Berhad and Kinsteel Berhad.

From the charts point of view, most the share prices movement has already started to show sign of accumulating. Not only that, with these kinds of movement yesterday all the major indicator has started to point its movement to the sky.

I didn't expect it to move very fast but the indicator suggest that the market is building up its base to move further. This might be the starting point or the entry point for the preparation of the coming Chinese New Year rally.

The game has just started. Try not to be too aggressive in accumulating some of shares because next week we will be celebrating the Christmas and I'm expecting the market will move slowly and steady. Eventually it will move higher and higher towards the Chinese New Year day.

Why I have to point out that it is time to accumulate ? During the month of October 2008 our Malaysian equities market including the overseas share market have experiencing a huge sell down before stabilizing for more than a month. Starting from the second week of November until now, the KL Composite Index have already started to build its base for almost 6 weeks.

A check on the charts again shows that many of the share prices have already bottom out and their share prices have already started to move higher.

This is just my personal point of view and it cannot be treat as a buy or a sell in Bursa Malaysia equities. I think the BULL is coming BACK. In order to have a smooth sailing, the performance of Dow Jones Industrial Average still play a very important element in order to support the KL Composite Index movements.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

MMC Corporation Berhad - Highly Oversold.

What has really happen to MMC Corporation Berhad ? Lately we can see that the MMC share prices has been going down until its break the RM 1.00 level. The stock had been sold down recently due to rising corporate governance and growth concerns as MMC would be paying RM1.7 billion cash for the proposed acquisition of airport operator Senai Airport Terminal Services Sdn Bhd (SATS) and land.

Recently MMC Corporation Bhd is in the advanced stage of negotiations for a proposed disposal of a minority stake in Pelabuhan Tanjung Pelepas Sdn Bhd (PTP), the country’s second largest container port. The selling of a minority stake is to fund its expansion plans. MMC currently owns 70% of the port.

The acquisition of SATS will be paid in cash instead of a share issue. The new acquisition price of RM 1.7 billion comprised of RM 580 million for airport operations and RM 1.1 billion for SATS' 2,718 acres of freehold land.

Whether this acquisition is worth of money to invest by MMC but some of the MMC Corporation shareholders feel it the different ways. The share prices has been sold down continuously without making any gain these past few tradings days. Yesterday selling have created a large volume traded among these few days transaction.

I was thinking whether there would be any technical rebound been perform by this counter ? Since the share prices has been highly oversold lately any technical rebound will likely to happen in these few days.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

KL Composite Moving Side Way to Consolidation ?

Lately if we take a look on how the KL Composite Index movement, there is nothing interesting for us to write about. With nine more trading days to go before we celebrate Happy New Year 2009 ..... Still the KL Composite Index didn't show any sign to advance.

Usually the market will be quiet when Christmas and New Year are near by. If we want to calculate the Chinese New Year from now on, it would be 25 trading days. It is not long if we thinking of Chinese New year rally.

The question is there are two types of Chinese New Year rally. One is before and another one is after the Chinese New Year. Which one will take place and when it will happen ?

I still can recall usually the market will only show some reaction when the year end finish. Just have to wait but history has already shows that a major collapse in the share market was not likely to happen around January.

These few days our market share prices are moving in a mix situation. If we take a look on most of the share prices that were traded yesterday, some were moving higher and some were moving lower and lower. Yesterday share prices movements were not encouraging, most of them were showing sign of weaknesses or I would call them a consolidation move.

World financial markets are moving quiet stable but our market behave just like a little kid. Don't know how to learn to walk and run, just only know how to crawl. That is one of the bad things in our Malaysian share market. Always react just like an old man. Still we need to be patient.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Green Packet Berhad. Future Blue Chip ?

Yesterday I went to KLCC (Kuala Lumpur Convention Center) for year end PC Fair. My main point there is to have a look on how P1 W1max doing. P1 W1MAX was a subsidiary of Green Packet Berhad. I was amazed with their promotion and their ability to promote their products. I still can remember when Green Packet Berhad first listed and went up as high as RM 7.50 (after bonus issue).

During that time most of the people were talking about this share, the future of this share and where is this company is heading to. During their 3 days promotion in the PC Fair, they had a tremendous sign up among all the visitors who had visited them.

This is going to be one of the sleeping giant that is going to wake up. If I not wrong, P1 W1MAX one day will take over Streamyx market as well. It just like how DIGI slowly take over the MAXIS customer.... from zero to hero.

I have sign up to subscribe with the P1 W1MAX (2 years) although my house has already been install with Streamyx. During the sign up, I have been entitled to participate in a money chamber competition, to grab as many money as you can. Manage to collect and grab RM 243.00 in total. Not bad ...... RM 100 (1 piece), RM 10 (2 pieces), RM 5 (9 pieces) and RM 1 (78 pieces). Everything happen in just 30 seconds only. There is a reason why I want to subscribe with P1 W1Max - read further..

Green Packet one of the most darling share when the share went up to a level that most of us couldn't believe it and now today the share prices merely trade at RM 0.70 per share.

What has really happen to this share ? Since the company has been awarded to operates WiMAX in Malaysia, thing don't look really good at all after that.

In March last year Green Packet Bhd, YTL e-Solutions Bhd, Asiaspace Sdn Bhd and REDtone International Bhd have been awarded the 2.3GHz broadband wireless access spectrum (WiMAX, which stands for World Interoperability for Microwave Access, is a wireless digital communications system that is intended for wireless broadband access.). The first three are licensed to offer WiMAX service in Peninsular Malaysia, while REDtone’s area of operation is Sabah and Sarawak.

Until now it seems that only Green Packet really make the move. With its P1 W1MAX branding and sales efforts, Green Packet has by far the most visible service roll-out among the four. It is a company with a serious game plan. It began preparing for a big push into the wireless broadband business well in advance. This included raising funds when the stock was doing well and hiring former TM Net Sdn Bhd CEO Michael Lai to head the WiMAX business.

It got Intel Corp to come on board as an investor and is looking at other foreign partners. It has also recently proposed another private placement.

Yet, even with such planning and drive, Green Packet is finding it tough going because of the slow take-up rate and delays in putting up base stations. The company has revised its year-end subscriber target from 40,000 to 10,000.

No matter how tough it will be for Green Packet Berhad, time will tell that the P1 W1MAX system been offer by Green Packet is great. The system is fast and friendly user. Not only that, I can bring it all over to any places that got wireless broadband access coverage (P1 W1MAX) and it is not necessary to plug it at home only. You might bring it to the hotel, restaurant, work place or any other places that been cover by the wireless broadband access (P1 W1MAX). How nice.... The only bad thing is we need to find a plug point in order to run the modem ...

Watch it closely.... one day I won't be surprised if P1 W1MAX - Green Packet can become one of the darling share once again. It might be the next mirror of DIGI. Who knows ?

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Vision 2020 Doubtful. Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad

Article from my friend - Jesper Lee. Written by Fauwaz Abdul Aziz and Hafiz Yatim .

Former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said that Malaysia will probably not be able to become a developed nation in 12 years’ time - the key target his Vision 2020. The 83-year-old statesman, whose administration had set the target in 1990, painted this bleak picture at an economic forum in the administrative capital Putrajaya.

"I have a feeling we are not going to achieve that (vision)," Mahathir said when answering a question from the floor after speaking on the future of Malaysia in light of the global financial uncertainties. Mahathir said the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the current global economic crisis were unanticipated factors preventing the achievement of the vision.

But he also pinned the blame on the country's new leadership which took over after he stepped down in 2003. The former premier was one of two speakers - the other was 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economics Robert F Engle - addressing a forum on the current financial market volatility which was jointly-organised by the Perdana Leadership Foundation and the Putrajaya Holdings Bhd.

In his speech, Mahathir described the current government as a "weakened" entity faced with a situation unprecedented in the country's 50-year history of political instability. According to him, the present government has mistakenly tried to appease "extremists, racists, and other discontents” instead of making the necessary - though unpopular - decisions.

During his time, said Mahathir, the government rebuffed calls by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to liberalise the economy and increase competition among all the ethnic groups in return for the fund’s loans. He said the government's move then - which was a continuation of its past policies - was taken in order to maintain social cohesion while maintaining economic growth on its own terms.

"For 50 years, political stability was what attracted investors, both foreign and local. Now, a weak government has tried to regain popularity by pandering to the demands of extremists. "The floodgates have been opened, and all kinds of sensitive issues are being debated. The result is not the kind of liberal society that the policy was supposed to (achieve).

The result is the resurgence of racism on the part of all ethnic groups. "In this atmosphere, the government will find it difficult to handle the oncoming financial and economic instability. The fear of political repercussions will prevent the government from seeking decisive, if unpopular, measures," he said.

Though unsaid, Mahathir appeared to be arguing for the government to maintain a tight grip on civil liberties. Economic stimulus package a pittance Admittedly, said Mahathir, the current global financial and economic crisis is a very difficult one to handle. But the government had erroneously thought it could tackle the accompanying problems "by making a few billion dollars available", said Mahathir in reference to the recently announced RM 7 billion economic stimulus package.

It is not impossible to weather through the crisis, but the government must be serious about handling the issues by identifying "the problem areas", understanding "the underlying causes" and devising "plans to counter" the damaging effect of the global crisis. Mahathir also said the economic development corridors launched by the government in several regions across the country will not resolve the problems as there is a critical lack of infrastructure and basic amenities such as water and electricity supply in those areas.

Later during the question-and-answer session, a participant asked Mahathir whether he thought government leaders were spending too much time and resources tackling the problem of political instability to the detriment of addressing the economic crisis. In response, Mahathir said: "Unless we resolve that (political crisis), we cannot focus on (putting back on track) the economic growth of our country."

Once that is done, he added, the government must concentrate on pinpointing all the issues pertaining to the economic and financial problems and devising ways to tackle them. "During the 1997 financial crisis, we sat down everyday from 9am to 1pm" to understand all the data relating to the problems then and formulating and implementing a plan of action to resolve them, he said.

Friday, December 12, 2008

One More Sharp Downturn For KL Composite Index Before Trend Reversal ?

Yesterday night I was doing my research on KL Composite Index past history. I trace the chart back to 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and compare with the current 2008 World Financial Crisis.

I don't know how true the movement will be but if we want to compare the time frame of the down turn created in 1997, it appear that the movement almost the same with current 2008 chart.

We can use it as a guidance for us to trace where the bottom would be perform but we cannot use it as a guide to determine that the bottom has already been perform.

We must make use of these charts as a guide to trade but not as a guide to determine where would be the next course of the KL Composite Index. Based on the charts, use your judgement to determine where KL Composite Index is heading to ?

As we can see right at the moment everyone is watching what would really happen in U.S. economics. Every financial market in the world still takes Dow Jones Industrial Average as a guide to determine their next course of their financial market. Any huge movement in their index would cause the financial market to react.

To cut it short I would rather say that if the U.S. economics or if something really happen in the U.S., it can bring down the whole world financial market tumbling again if there are great news occurs (e.g. bad news, financial collapse, maybe terrorist attack in U.S or assassination of a president in U.S). Who knows ? Anything can happen in overnight.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Bursa Malaysian Exchange To Move Upwards ?

Yesterday performance was tremendous. The KL Composite Index went up +19.49 points to close at 854.66 points. After a few days of sell down, finally the KL Composite Index move accordingly towards the world share market movement.

I was so surprised with the world share market performance especially the Hang Seng Index. The HSI is seems to be keep on continuing its trends and moving upwards to break its hurdle and obstacles.

Whether yesterday movement can be consider a technical rebound or a trend reversal, we still need to monitor it closely. From the chart indicator and trend, it was likely the KL Composite Index is going for short term trend reversal. Maybe an early Chinese New Year rally has already emerged ?

No matter how the share market will react these few days, world financial market appears to be in stabilize situation. Lately interest rate cut by few central bank around the region did help out the confident level around the globe.

Will the Malaysia share market keeps on continuing with its current trend ? I would prefer the Bursa Malaysia share market to build up its base first before any significant move was made.

Currently the share prices in Bursa Malaysia Exchange looks very cheap. Anything can happen in these few days. I would like to accumulate some of these shares but my confident level is not that high. I would rather monitor for few days more in order to build up the confident level. My article here is just my own opinion and cannot be assume as an indicator to buy or to sell any of these shares.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Disappointed Movement From KL Compodite Index...

Like it or not, this is how our Malaysia share market performance. Yesterday was a disappointed move by the KL Composite Index. After opening up as high as +15 points, the KL Composite Index close down -3.11 points to close at 835.17 points.

If we take a look on some of these few counters traded in the Malaysia share market yesterday; Resorts World Berhad (-0.09, 2.15), Genting Berhad (-0.10, 3.66), MMC Corporation Berhad (-0.10, 1.15) and AFG Berhad (-0.11, 1.62), all of them are trading at their new lows and some even break their previously low recorded some 2 months back.

This is not a very good indicator but rather an opportunity to capture much cheaper price set by these few solid fundamental counters if these counters still keep on going down. Keep on monitoring the market movement from now on and it would eventually bring some fruits in the beginning of the new calendar year of 2009.

This month of December would be a perfect month to determine how our Malaysia share market will lead us to. As we can see the share market is still very weak. So trade it carefully.

Right at the moment we need to be patient in order to control ourselves not to get too excited once the world financial market move up strongly. I have been caught few times these two to three weeks.

It is not an easy share market to make some money. (E.G - Ramunia and AirAsia). I have lost on these trade. I will take this as a lesson for me in order to sharpen my skill in the future trading.

Latest development ; Sony Corp. is slashing 4 percent of its worldwide work force, reining in spending and shutting plants as it tries to ride out a looming worldwide recession that is battering Japan's export-reliant manufacturers. Tokyo-based Sony, which is cutting 8,000 of its 185,000 jobs, said it will shut five or six plants -- about 10 percent of its 57 factories.

Another company Ford Motor Co's Volvo Cars division will cut 3,401 full-time jobs, or 14% of the workforce and eliminate more than 1,000 temporary posts as the Swedish unit is prepared for sale by its US parent. Volvo will cut 2,721 employees in Sweden, including 2,367 blue-collar workers, and fire 680 outside the country. The car maker will also terminate the positions of 1,215 contract workers.

With this kind of news still pouring outside the world financial market it would eventually bring a huge disaster to the share market if the unemployment figure is still keep on rising without a Full Stop on it.

Photo : Maggie Q

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

World Market Are Shining. Time To Accumulate ?

Yesterday the world share market performs very well and indeed it had performed better than we can expect.

Whether this is an indicator to accumulate into the Malaysian share market still lies on today KL Composite Index performance. Lately most of our shares prices have perform badly and didn't follow the exact trend according to the world share market trend.

Basically the rally or the uptrend around the world were mostly trigger because of Barack Obama, the U.S. president-elect, said over the weekend he planned the biggest increase in infrastructure since the 1950s with the goal of creating at least 2.5 million jobs, while the White House and congressional Democrats were finalizing a USD 15 billion proposal to bail out automakers.

I really have no idea whether it is the right time now to accumulate for short term play but I would rather let the bandwagon run by it self. I'm not going to catch this bandwagon unless I feel there is a solid indicator tells me to do so.

No doubt most of the counter still at low and some even perform a double bottom, it is still early to tell whether the Chinese New Year rally is just around the corner......

KL Composite Index still stuck inside the downtrend channel. That didn't mean that any trend reversal towards upward cannot be perform. It is just that we need to monitor for a few days before any decision can been made towards our Malaysian share market performance.

Until today there are still many big firms in U.S. starting to cut jobs with the latest from Dow Chemical Co. The company slash 5,000 full-time jobs, about 11 percent of its total work force and close 20 plants and sell several businesses to rein in costs amid the economic recession. Dow Jones Industrial Average is moving near to 9,000 points. A positive sign yet it is too early to tell .....

Photo : Maggie Q. Birth Date: 22nd May 1979. Asia Top 10 Mixed Beauty.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

HEAD AND SHOULDERS FOR AIRASIA ?

The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well.

Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance.

Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.)

Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again. Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline.

(Volume has a greater importance in the head and shoulders pattern in comparison to other patterns. Volume generally follows the price higher on the left shoulder. However, the head is formed on diminished volume indicating the buyers aren't as aggressive as they once were. And on the last rallying attempt-the left shoulder-volume is even lighter than on the head, signaling that the buyers may have exhausted themselves.)

New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the market breaks the neckline. (Volume should increase on the breakout.)

Recently AirAsia Berhad has announced lost money on trades held by the bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and on wrong-way bets on oil prices. AirAsia posted a loss of RM 465.5 million in the third quarter as it had a charge of RM 215 million to cover costs from unwinding hedging contracts and the likely non-recovery of collateral for trades held by Lehman.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

AirAsia Boss Fernandez Eyes Singapore Airlines ?

This is something we need to look forward into the future when I read an article about it. It is quite an interesting article about an ambition by our Datuk Tony Fernandez. This article appear on The Sun.

Malaysian budget airline AirAsia's boss Tony Fernandez has said his long-term goal is to one day "take over" Singapore Airlines (SIA), the national airline of the neighbouring city state.

The maverick entrepreneur revealed his company's ambitions at the end of a slide presentation at an event where he was conferred an award by Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak.

To the amazement of those present, he showed two pictures - one of aircraft livery and the other of AirAsia's new uniform for its stewardesses. He told his audience that he would name his new company Singapore AirAsia.

Fernandez kept the audience in stitches throughout his one-hour presentation, ending it with the remark: "And this is the uniform the stewardesses on board Singapore AirAsia will wear." He pointed to a picture of a smiling woman wearing a combination of the famous SIA baju kebaya and striking red AirAsia skirt.

While many in the audience laughed it off, aviation industry observers said it was a signal from Fernandez following news reports of Malaysia Airlines being in talks for a strategic alliance with British Airways and Qantas.

A Malaysian news portal said that owing to global economic pressures, the airline industry was going through a consolidation period, with talks of mergers, acquisitions and bankruptcies dominating the business pages.

Lately AirAsia Bhd’s proposed privatisation is not taking off as its major shareholder Tune Air Sdn Bhd has been hampered by limited financing options due to the global credit crunch. AirAsia also announce they posted a loss of RM 465.5 million in the third quarter as it had a charge of RM 215 million to cover costs from unwinding hedging contracts and the likely non-recovery of collateral for trades held by Lehman.

Friday, December 5, 2008

U.S. Economic Data Is Much Worst Than Expected.

Since the beginning of the new introduction trading system being implemented on Bursa Malaysia, our share market have been experiencing a decline in volume. Not only that, no matter whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average is moving up or down still our share market reacted negatively for the whole trading day.

A check on this week movement shows that most of the counters are starting to show more weaknesses rather than stabilizing. A look on Top Ten volume traded today - Resorts World Berhad, KNM Berhad, TM International Berhad, Ramunia Berhad, Genting Berhad and AirAsia Berhad are trading at their lows.

This is not a good sign but still we need to wait and monitor the whole situation. I can't really give any suggestion right now as there was no strong indicator stated that it was a right time to make an entry.

A latest news released by Yahoo Finance. Oil prices were near four-year lows below USD 44 a barrel Friday in Asia as more bad U.S. economic news soured the outlook for global growth and demand for crude. The data released shows that the damage to the economy by the financial turmoil is much bigger than the market initially thought. The economic data now is much worse than what an analyst expected a few months ago.

Oil prices have fallen about 70 percent since peaking at USD 147.27 in July. Dismal economic data in the U.S., pointing toward a sharp contraction of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter and weakening demand for crude products, such as gasoline. Now some analyst expecting the crude oil seems headed below USD 40 a barrel.

The government of U.S. said the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits last week reached 4.09 million, the highest level since December 1982, while the proportion of workers receiving benefits matched a level reached 16 years ago, in September 1992.

Factory orders plunged a bigger-than-expected 5.1 percent in October caused by big cutbacks in demand for steel, autos, computers and heavy machinery. It was the largest decrease since an 8.5 percent fall in July 2000.

Investors will be eyeing the Labor Department's November unemployment report on Friday (today), which economists expect will show that the jobless rate rose to 6.8 percent and that companies cut another 320,000 jobs. Like it or not but this is the facts that we need to face what really happen in the U.S. economies. These numbers will really have an impact towards the Dow Jones Industrial Average.....

Photo of Taiwan Actress and Model : Kelly Lin Xi Lei. She was hailed by FHM as "Asia's Sexiest Woman" in 2002. Date of birth: 29.10.1975

Thursday, December 4, 2008

KNM Below 50 Cents, A Good Buy ?

Article appear on The Edge Daily.

Kenanga Research is maintaining a buy on KNM Group Bhd, with a target price of RM 1.10 per share, following the latter’s axed agreement to buy Ellimetal NV. KNM yesterday confirmed a report by The Edge Financial Daily that it and Ellimetal NV Belgium had mutually agreed not to proceed with KNM’s proposed acquisition of Ellimetal for € 20 million (RM 92 million).

The stock fell to a low of 49 sen, but closed at 49.5 sen, down three sen from the previous close.

However, KNM said it was in the midst of discussions for a commercial cooperation agreement with Ellimetal NV instead in relation to engineering, construction and delivery of aluminium silos within certain territories.

KNM had reasoned that Ellimetal’s owner and key management team would not be staying in the company after KNM’s takeover for the termination of the proposed acquisition. Under the original agreement, Ellimetal managing director Lamber Geerkens was required to continue serving in the same capacity for two years, while similarly identified key personnel needed to sign a minimum of two years’ service contract with the company from the date of the completion of the acquisition.

“This is a win-win situation where KNM funding requirement is lowered but yet is able to extend its reach and product offering,” Kenanga said in a note yesterday. “We remain positive as KNM will look to consolidate its global reach and work at enhancing the synergistic effects which should be advantageous in the current environment given the group’s ability to value add to its clients more than ever before,” said the research unit.

Kenanga Research said KNM’s acquisition of Brazilian companies HZM Industrial Ltda, HZM Servicos Ltda and HZM S A Industria e Comercio de Equipmentos garnered about RM 5 million in savings due to favourable currency position.

It also said that KNM’s order book of RM 4.3 billion was still intact while its tender book totalled RM 22 billion with oil sand bids at about RM1 billion. However, Kenanga Research is expecting new bids to take longer to materialise given the volatility in crude oil prices and other commodities.

Kenanga noted that KNM’s goodwill impairment exercise from the planned acquisition of Berlin-based process equipment maker Borsig was not complete, with KNM targeting to finalise the exercise by this month. The research house slashed its projections on KNM production by 5% for FY08 and 13% FY09, attributing the reductions to the absence of Ellimetal’s capacity.

Further, Kenanga Research predicted that in 2009, KNM would be impacted by delays in its Canadian workshop phase two as KNM would be guided by the oil sands development in Canada. Kenanga’s net profit forecast for KNM Group stands at RM 341.73 million for FY08 and RM 544.18 million in FY09.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Dow Jones This Friday's Job Report Important to Economic ?

Another roller-coaster move from KL Composite Index. Lately we are experiencing some uncertainty over the KL Composite Index movement. It is not easy to determine whether the time has arrive ? Yet we still need to keep on monitoring the entire of the Bursa Malaysia share market movement.

This morning Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 270 points after fluctuating sharply. Yesterday investors got an additional lift after the Federal Reserve said it will extend the life of key programs aimed at loosening the credit markets and restoring stability to the financial sector. That helped make financial stocks, the hardest hit sector since the credit crisis began, among the market's biggest gainers.

On your right: THE DOW BIGGEST LOSSES - TOP 12 (Losses more than 500 points and above)

Yet the market remains uncertain about what might lie ahead, from how long the recession might last to more troubles in the struggling financial sector.

Wall Street this week is uneasy about a number of reports due to be released, primarily Friday's jobs report that is widely considered the most important economic reading of the month.

Anyway talk about some of the share prices movement, it appears that MRCB Corporation Berhad has shown some leadership in this few days movement. Just watch it. Maybe this counter might become a leader in the up coming Chinese New Year rally ? Who knows ?

With the uncertainty surrounding the DJIA, I would prefer to wait and have a look what would be the next course for the DJIA movement. It is not worth it to put your money when there is uncertainty surrounding the world financial market....

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Wall Street's Still Play An Important Role ?

The KL Composite Index tumble -17.71 points to close at 848.43 points. It was a surprised for me when the KL Composite Index open and all the sudden the index fell about -10.00 points during the first hours. Yet the falls didn't mean anything yet or a call to Buy.

It seems that the blue chip has experiencing some selling activities with Sime Darby lead the biggest falls (-0.75 cents to close at RM 5.10 per share). Genting Berhad and Resorts World Berhad were also not spare from yesterday selling activities. This month of December will be an important month to determine whether Chinese New Year rally will emerge or not.

Any continuation of selling will be treat as an opportunity to accumulate the share prices at the lower level. When the selling activities covering the whole market or broad-based, that would be the right timing to monitor whether an opportunity has arise. Yesterday movement will be consider as an usual activities and most the share prices still consider at their comfortable level.

There have been rumours circulating around that something very bad will happen to America, Wall Street or Dow Jones Industrial Average this month. I think we just have to wait whether any of this rumours is true or not. What are the rumours ? It is still early to tell what the exact rumours are ? Hopefully nothing really bad will happen to U.S. financial system.

Remember we still need to be patient and cautious when we want to trade in the share market because the whole movement of our share market performance and the world financial markets would still depend on the performance of DJIA (Wall Street's)

This morning a sharp sell-off in the stock market Monday snapped a five-session winning streak in DJIA as inventors digested a weak manufacturing survey, the possibility that the Federal Reserve may buy longer-term Treasuries, word that the U.S. economy officially entered recession in December 2008 and concerns regarding financials.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Flip-Flopping Fairy Tales: Malaysia Will Not Have 3.9% Growth In 2009

Today when I was reading an article and searching some new, I found a very special article that we need to share about it. This article was appear in Malaysiakini website. So I decided to make a search on the original material which is come from Future Fast Forward by Matthias Chang.

Flip-Flopping Fairy Tales - Malaysia Will Not Have 3.9% Growth In 2009 - Accepting Reality Is Not Pessimism, Giving False Hopes Is Not Optimism - By Matthias Chang (18 November 2008)

Let’s put some money in our mouths. In the past I have challenged those who disagreed with me, that if they can prove me wrong, I would gladly pay them a RM5,000 cash reward. There were no takers. None could prove me wrong!

In the past few days, the mass media have gone out of the way to interview politicians and the Governor of Bank Negara to project a rosy picture that somehow our economy will overcome the severe pain and disruption from the on-going global financial tsunami.

I am willing to take on anyone from the Badawi regime and Bank Negara that by H1 of 2009, the KLCI will drop below 700. If I am wrong in my analysis, I will pay the first five individuals from the said Badawi regime and or Bank Negara the sum of RM 5,000.

These five individuals must within a week register at my website that they are willing to take me on in this challenge.

They have to provide their full name and address in accordance with their NRIC/MyKad and their designation.

If they lose to me, they must pay me the same amount!

Fellow citizens, don’t listen to the Badawi regime’s fairy tales. Prepare for the worst and the worst is yet to come. You owe it to your family.

The best way to save our family and our country is to be prepared for all eventualities. We must tighten our belts, save for the stormy days that will surely come and not spend, spend as advocated by the Badawi regime’s ministers.

Use common sense. What do you tell your children as responsible parents when the family is going through hard times – spend, spend, spend or be thrifty, thrifty, thrifty?

Remember the flight safety rules when flying – when the oxygen mask falls from the overhead compartment, you are to wear the mask first before attending to your children. If you cannot save yourself, you are not in a position to save anyone.

This is a fundamental principle of survival for everyone when a plane is about to crash! Apply the same principle to economic woes and we will all be saved.

Here are his warnings for 2009:

By 2nd Half of next year, the automobile industry will go into a tailspin and suffer massive losses.

By 2nd Half of next year, credit card debts will soar, credit limits will be drastically reduced (worse than 1997/1998) and interest rates on outstanding will increase sharply. It is already happening!

By 2nd Half of next year, shipping rates will drop drastically and this is also happening. Our ports and shipping companies will suffer.

By 2nd Half of next year, our housing market bubble will burst notwithstanding all the stimulus and pump-priming. Arab investors will not be coming. Dubai and Abu Dhabi is already in a financial / property gridlock! Why would they come here when they have to save their own asses?

By 2nd Half of next year, our exporters will be in tears, when Letters of Credit (L/Cs) will not be honoured and inventory stacks up at ports and in factory premises. Chinese exporters are already stipulating what LCs from which global banks will only be accepted.

By 2nd Half of next year, FELDA settlers will also be in tears. Having spent their windfall early this year (because of Badawi regime’s false optimism), their savings will be down and they will bleed.

By the 3rd Quarter of next year, corporate NPLs will shoot up! Relaxing mark-to-market rules will not help.

Malaysia will have a huge immigration problem when these hardworking people are thrown out of work and have to compete with the swelling ranks of Malaysian unemployed. In the meantime capital outflows will continue.

Let’s see whether the statement that Malaysia has more than enough reserves (since according to Bank Negara, we need only have US$30 to US$40 billion reserves) will provide sufficient confidence to foreign investors to continue to invest in Malaysia.

You can call the above observations – rubbish, pessimism, gloom and doom etc. but that won’t change reality. Pause and think. In my previous warnings and alerts, I have stated that by the latest – the 1st quarter of 2009, things will get ugly and scary!

If I am not right, why did the leaders of the just concluded G-20 summit in Washington, in their so-called “Action Plan” stipulated that their policies, remedies etc. must be implemented by the end of the 1st Quarter 2009?

My articles were all written BEFORE THE SUMMIT and obviously I have no control over the leaders of G-20. So ask yourself – “Why Oh Why Must the First Action Plan Be Implemented by the First Quarter of 2009?

This is only the first tentative steps by the G-20 leaders and there is no guarantee that the measures will work. The original Bretton Woods initiatives took almost two years to be formalised and put to work. There is no magic wand to be wielded by the leaders for instant cure. It will be a long hard grind. In the meantime, more shits will hit the ceiling fan. That is a given!

I hope the Badawi Regime and Bank Negara are not accusing the G-20 leaders and Obama’s financial and economic advisers as being pessimists!

You be the judge!
..................................................
WANT TO BE RICH BY ANOTHER RM 5,000.00 ? HERE IS YOUR CHANCE ........... Jackie Lee

Friday, November 28, 2008

Russian Professor Predicts Breakup and Decline in USA

This is a very good article come out yesterday. It was send by one of my friend Mr. Jesper Lee. Worth of reading it. This is something that we usually can't find from a professor that can foreseen what would happen in U.S. Read it and you will understand.

A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts. Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily Izvestia published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything.

The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded USD 2 trillion. Now it is more than USD 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." On the fate of the U.S. dollar, he said: "In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar. The one-hundred dollar bills that have flooded the world could be simply frozen. Under the pretext, let's say, that terrorists are forging them and they need to be checked."

When asked how Russia should react to his vision of the future, Panarin said: "Develop the ruble as a regional currency. Create a fully functioning oil exchange, trading in rubles... We must break the strings tying us to the financial Titanic, which in my view will soon sink." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

KNM Berhad. Can This Counter Become A Market Leader ?

These past few days if we analyst the movement of world financial market including the DJIA; it seems that the KL Composite Index might eventually move up to a higher level. Most of the world share market are showing sign of strenght and also our share prices counters in these past few days have been staying quite stable at their level. There is some indication that the market is going to move higher and higher.

Right at the moment we can assume that most the bad news has been pour out but yet there are still many bad news being kept quite inside the vault.

What ever it is, the most important element in order for the market to move is the volume. Without the volume being built up, the chances for the market to move higher will be equivalent to zero.

Another element would be a market leader. This is one of the factors that would bring this market to move up and if we take a look at the current situation, there isn't any counters that can be a potential leader unless KNM Berhad. With the current share prices of KNM stabilize at RM 0.55 level and with a highly volume done over these few days, don't be surprise if KNM Berhad would become a market leader.

This is not a recommendation to buy or to sell. It is just for us to share our taught. As I use to mention, this is just my own points of views. It cannot be considered accurate. It was based on my charts reading method. However we must always be remember that the KL Composite Index still inside the downtrend channel.

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 8,726.61 points up +247.14 points. For the four days, the Dow is up more than 15 percent and nearly 1,200 points. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 is up 18 percent. But no one seemed ready to declare the Wall Street carnage over. Still we need to be careful because we need to face the on going financial meltdown crisis.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Bangkok In Chaos. Any Immediate Effects On Us ?

Bangkok paralyzed. The most recently newly build airports Suvarnabhumi Airport had to be shut down due to the safety. With the current political turmoil hit our country neighbour; will this political turmoil bring any effects to our country? I was wondering whether this morning the KL Composite Index went down has to do with Thailand political turmoil ?

Here are some of the articles from The Nation website.

The Airports of Thailand still kept the Suvarnabhumi Airport shut Wednesday evening, leaving some 3,000 passengers stranded. AoT decided to close the Suvarnabhumi airport Tuesday night after PAD protesters blocked an entrance, entered passenger terminals and scuffled with airport officials.

video

"We will gather at the airport until Prime Minister Somchai resigns," said PAD spokesman Panthep Wongpuapan, repeating the words of PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul. Speaking to his followers Tuesday night, Sondhi apologised for the great inconvenience to travellers but said the PAD had no choice with regular bomb attacks that killed and injured many protesters but drew no reaction from the government.

It was a big political gamble by the PAD, which has seen its support declining lately because of controversial, provocative moves. Its die-hard following, however, has been galvanised by deaths and injuries of PAD members since October 7, when police fired tear gas at protesters marching to Parliament. After October 7, the PAD protesters have been targeted for some mysterious bomb attacks that increased the casualty toll.

Army chief Anupong Paochinda, who had been appointed chief of a task force to monitor the PAD and recommend measures to the government, has become a man in the most awkward position. Earlier, he had strongly criticised the government for using violent measures against PAD protesters on October 7, resulting in many deaths and injuries. And on Tuesday afternoon, he reiterated the military's stand that there will not be another coup.

But the latest PAD campaign, which will generate great repercussions on many fronts including security, economy and tourism, Anupong will be under heavy pressure to take some action.

This is a lesson for all the Malaysian. Frankly I against the use of Internal Security Act (ISA) in our country (Malaysia) but if we want to have a peaceful country we need to maintain it. What really happens in Thailand is that their country don't have a system to maintain their public order.

Crude Palm Oil Prices Might Rebound In Near Terms ?

All the while most of us have been thinking of the negative element that will strike our world financial market; will the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks it recently low? Will the banking system in every country facing the worst scenario of collapsing? German is the latest country to announce their country has enter into a recession. Will Malaysia face the same situation next year?

How about the performance of the world share market in these few months to come; that also including the performance of the KL Composite Index? To be exact, I don't know whether I'm sitting in a comfortable chair and waiting for the KL Composite Index to tumble or to fall again from a 100 storey high rise building before it crash just like million pieces of glasses. It happens three weeks ago and I'm waiting for another one to happen. Will it happens or I'm just dreaming only?

Yesterday I went through some of the charts and I found out some of the counters are trading at their recently lows. In this case anything can happen once the share prices reaches their recently bottom.

First scenario : when the double bottom been perform, it is likely the share prices will move up.

Second scenario : breaks the recently lows and straight away create new low before they rebound. In order for this to take place, the performance of the KL Composite Index will play an important role to determine the course of way.

Let us take a look at one of the example here. Crude Palm Oil prices has shown a little bit of promising sign to move up. In this case if the Crude Palm Oil manage to breaks its resistance level of RM 1,723 per tonne then it might help the plantation stock to move higher. When the plantation stock move higher the KL Composite Index will move higher. Will it happens?

Will this be an opportunity for the next up trend to occour? Next year will not be a good year for the share market around the world and it is likely to be worst than this year but we cannot assume that it will always be bad through out the year. Any possibility of another up trend to occur anytime for now on cannot be denied. All we have to do right now is keep our eyes open and monitor the market movement.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

OPPORTUNITY IN CRISIS FOR EPF ?

When I went through some article I found something interesting article about EPF. The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) is a national social security organization operating through a provident fund scheme in Malaysia. Their principal members are the private and non-pensionable public sector employees. This article below was taken from The Edge Daily online website.

The word crisis connotes danger and opportunity in mandarin. A market swarmed by sellers has given the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) the opportunity to be aggressively buying into stocks that appear to have been oversold and are fundamentally strong. The statutory fund had been raising its stake in a number of blue chips, including plantation stocks, from Oct 28 to Nov 10.

Notably, it emerged as a substantial shareholder in Kulim (M) Bhd after buying a total of 15.78 million shares between Nov 6 and 11 in the open market, giving it a 5.12% direct stake in the plantation company. The fund raised its shareholding in Tenaga Nasional Bhd to 635.14 million shares after buying a total of 14.56 million shares between Oct 28 and Nov 4, raising its stake to 14.65%.

Sime Darby Bhd, whose shares had been seeing a selling spree lately following the fall in crude palm oil price, saw EPF acquiring 10.31 million shares and lifting its stake to 935.04 million shares or 15.56%.

EPF took up a total of 9.58 million shares in IOI Corporation Bhd between Nov 3 and 10 via portfolio managers. It now has a total of 758.32 million shares or 12.86% stake in the plantation firm.

Among other counters, EPF was also a net buyer in AirAsia Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, TM International Bhd (TMI), Public Bank Bhd, YTL Corporation Bhd and YTL Power International Bhd.

From my point of views, no doubt that EPF has started to accumulate some of these stocks at a cheaper price still they are investing it for a long term run. That will be a good opportunity for EPF to make a huge return once the KL Composite Index has make a comeback. This only will happen once the share market has started to bring more confident and people are start buying it without any fear, then only the share prices will raise.

We as a player, punter or maybe an investor have a limited fund to turn around. If the share prices go up then it will be great for us but what if the share prices can't even go up and beginning to fall and fall until a stage that we have already out of fund to go in and invest some more ?

We are not like EPF where by they can continue to accumulate these shares if the share prices go down further. They can average up their share prices but we can't because most of us have limited fund only. Do you think that the KL Composite Index will touch 700 points ?????? Make your own judgement .............

Monday, November 24, 2008

KL Composite Index Still Very Weak. A Roller Coaster Move?

Overall today market performance can be consider dull. Nothing to talk about. Everything is about the same things. Last Friday movement was just a technical rebound only.

I still stick with my decision to wait and to see how the market will react in tandem with overall world market performance especially Dow Jones Industrial Average. Today the KL Composite Index went down -11.49 points to close at 855.39 points.

Share prices seem to be going down further after their recent run up. More and more counters are facing further selling pressure. MMC Corp was the next victim that facing the selling pressure today. IOI Corp also faced the same problem. Today downwards turn cannot be consider as an opportunity to buy but rather an opportunity to study how the share market movement and behavior after their recently side way movement for almost two weeks.

From my experience in monitoring the share market movement, I always found out that usually in order for the share market to make a solid U-turn (moving up); they must always tumble first for a few days before they managed to climb up. Can we consider today share market experiencing the sharp falls today ? Not yet. It is still early to assume that the market almost near the bottom. No doubt most of the share market went down today but tomorrow morning it might go up as well. It might be a roller coaster ride.

Tonight the DJIA performance will depends on how the investors will react against the announcement of a massive rescue package for Citigroup.

The U.S. federal government on Sunday announced a massive rescue package for Citigroup - the latest move to steady the banking giant, whose shares have plunged in the past week. The plan has two key features:

First, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will backstop some losses against more than $300 billion in troubled assets. Second, the Treasury will make a fresh $20 billion investment in the bank. The government has already injected $25 billion into Citigroup as part of the $700 billion bailout passed by Congress in October.

Citigroup is the second largest bank in U.S. Any massive rescue package will sure lift the confident of the U.S. financial banking system. Anyway stay away from the share market will be the best option to adopt. Any risk taking right at the moment will not benefit us in the long run as our KL Composite Index still in the downtrend channel.