Thursday, July 31, 2008

Anwar Ibrahim to contest Parliamentary Seats ?

I believe some of you all out there never look at the chart of our Malaysia Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices. Recently our Crude Palm Oil prices has drop quite heavily from about RM 3,500 to RM 2,900 per tonne in just two weeks of trading session.

Why the Crude Palm Oil prices drop so much ? If you would like to ask me, I would like to say that the Crude Oil prices play an important role. Its just like they are connected to each other. A look at the chart suggest that the Crude Palm Oil prices might fall even further.

At the moment the support level stays at RM 3,033.00 per tonne (01.04.2008). If this level been broken in this few days , there will be an impact on KL Composite Index. The current closing prices for Crude Oil Prices for October delivery today stand at RM 3,050.00 per tonne a gain of RM +58.00 per tonne.

Today the KL Composite Index added their gain +3.15 points to close at 1,163.09 points. A good closing for the market but what we need to pay attention is how well the market can adsorb the heavy deliveries.

Today will be T+3 for nearly 800 millions shares change hand on last Monday turnover and Friday would be T+4 (force selling). If the market can overcome this heavy delivery, it will be gaining strength next week. But remember..........and beware..........

Latest Buletin - Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim announces that he will contest a by-election for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat which will be vacated by his wife and PKR leader Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

Is this a good news or a bad news to the market ? Here is another Latest Buletin - Police investigations into the sodomy complaint against Anwar Ibrahim have been completed and the papers are now with the Attorney-General's Chambers for further action.

Wahhhhh, there is something for us to look into this matter and to consider whether this will affect the equities market because another news coming out Latest Buletin - Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may be arrested in the next 48 hours and charge him by Monday, a senior party official said today, arguing it was to stop him contesting a by-election.

Wah lau ehhhhhhh. I think I need to go back whether to take a normal Panadol or Panadol Act Fast. Our political situation in Malaysia is getting more and more interesting than ever.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Fly, Fly, Fly Up to the Sky...

Today I would say the market ended generally good. The KL Composite Index ended down just -3.29 points to finish at 1,150.80 points. Still I would like to stay on the track that the market still have a bit of potential to move up at the moment (hope that I'm right). I'm still holding my position as I can see there is still many counter not yet make its moves.

When I started posted this article, the Crude Oil prices for September delivery already break a new low and was currently down USD -3.26 per barrel at USD 121.47 per barrel. I think this might help the equities market a bit. But you won't know how the market will fare, it depends on its today closing. (Below USD 122.68 per barrel will be good)

To be honest the Crude Oil prices is still struggling to move up but a check on its charts should confirm that the Crude Oil is really heading to the south pole.

AirAsia is doing well in this couple of days. If the counter still stay at this level, I don't see why this counter cannot move up to RM 1.15 per share to RM 1.27 per share. Many analyst give a very bad impresion on AirAsia shares when the counter suffer huge sellout during the recent downtrend.

But now some of the analyst are saying that AirAsia counter will perform better accordingly with the current Crude Oil prices retreat.

While many other major airlines company's are cutting their cost and re-size their fleet and re-adjust their routes, AirAsia is still expanding its current fleets and routes. What a great job by Datuk Tony Fernandes.

" When there is a LOSER, there always be a GAINER "

Monday, July 28, 2008

What Happen ? Counter's Move Like Hot Cake.....

As I mention last week the KL Composite Index movement with some of the counters did show some strength even DJIA down sharply.

Most of the counters gain strength and indeed it perform tremendously today when KL Composite Index gaining +12.34 points to close at 1,154.09 points.

With most of previous sharp drop counters are gaining back but today overall performance is a bit overdone. I would like the market to move up slowly but not in a way like a jet speed. Sometimes when the movement is too fast, the next day it will slow down. (have to beware - trend still pointed downwards)

Today total volume was very good compare to last few weeks, nearly 800 millions shares change hand. Its was encouraging and its shows that there is a support towards the market. But I'm still doubt about the movement of this market. For me this is just a rebound, it is just that how far it will reach to the top, no one will know. In my previous comment the probability for the market to stay on the upside maybe at 2 to 3 weeks.

And please don't take this as an answer or yes to my opinion because the market still have potential to move up and please don't get your self burn when the trend is changing (moving south).

The market scenario most likely will follow the Dow Jones Industrial Average couple with the movement of the Crude Oil prices.

Watch Glomac Berhad. The counter today traded with a lot of volume and even traded at the low. This month the company make some few Share Buy Back. It is worth to consider on this counter as its share prices still at low (RM 0.75). Potential for it to move up. As you can see among all these sector, the property counter still lagger but today Equine already move to a level not even I can believe it.

Today it close up RM +0.23 per share at RM 0.68 per share. An increase that we usually can't find it for a counter share prices below RM 0.50 per share. What a great counter.

Glomac Issued and Paid-Up Capital : RM 219,241,750.00
Class of Shares : Ordinary Shares of RM 1.00 each

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Oil: What goes up...

After months of rising oil prices, crude has finally started to fall from record levels. Is it possible that oil below $100? At about $124 a barrel, crude is still up substantially from a year ago. But it's down 15% in just a couple of weeks, and the threat of $150 oil has faded for now.

The stock market has taken notice. Despite some not-so-great news from many banks, stocks overall have rallied. So why is oil falling? And can it continue to do so? Do you think Oil and Gas prices have peaked?

There's a simple answer to the question above: Oil prices are down sharply because oil prices were up sharply. The spike in oil has hurt consumers around the globe.

So demand for oil is finally starting to cool. Oil prices have fallen as a result. And stocks have gained ground. "It's a circular phenomenon. Oil prices go up and it affects consumer confidence and stocks go down. When oil goes down, consumer confidence increases and stocks go up. It's a little bit of a see-saw."

Eventhough yesterday closed still above USD 120.00 per barrel, we cannot judge it by saying the prices of Crude Oil cannot go up. It all depends on the whole situation to determine the next course of the movement. A break of the support level at USD 122.68 per barrel as I mention will eventually confirm the trend of the Crude Oil prices has change.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Roller Coaster Ride at KL Composite Index.

Basically from what I see at this market movement yesterday and today. The market perform very well. If we take a look at yesterday market, eventhough DJIA make some small gain, our market are trying to digest the recently +29.84 points gains with the movement of up and down. (Please refer to the charts 24.07.2008 KL Composite Index movement).

Today the market can be consider strong if we want to compare with the huge losses register by DJIA overnight sharp drop 0f -283.10 points. From the market movement, I would say that next week the market maybe gaining it strenght and post more gains if our current political situation are stable.

Some of the counter perform very well like Ranhill Utilities Berhad. Today the counter close at RM 1.27 per share, a gain of RM +0.305. Recently low that had been register by this counter four days ago is just at RM 0.80 per share. This is what I call a true and pure techinical rebound.

If we examine the Index movement couple with some of the few counters, it is likely there are still many more potential counter to move upwards. (i.e Sunway, Sunrise, IGB and don't left out the AirAsia counters) On your right charts - KL Composite movement for today's.

The Crude Oil prices currently still stay in the negatif zone with the up-side potential still limited. I hope that the Crude Oil prices will break below USD 120.00 per barrel in order to confirm the downtrend movement.

Malaysia's annual inflation rate spiraled to a 27-year high in June after a fuel price hike sent the cost of food and transport soaring. Consumer prices in June rose 7.7 percent compared with the same month in 2007, more than double the 3.8 percent annual inflation rate recorded in May, according to data released late Wednesday by the Statistics Department.

Central Bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz was noncommittal Thursday about whether the sharper-than-expected rise in inflation will prompt the bank to raise its key overnight policy rate -- used by banks to set lending rates -- which has been unchanged at 3.5 percent since 2006.

"We're going to do what is in the best interest of the country," Zeti told reporters, adding that the bank will consider factors such as whether inflation would increase and affect economic growth.

How far the interest will affect us will solely depands on the next Inflation data coming out in August. Many country with higher Inflation Rate could not avoid the increased in their key overnight policy rate set by their banks. What do you think ? Any increase in lending rates will more or less affect the economic growth.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Oil Tumbles USD 4 on Slumping Demand.

NEW YORK ( -- Oil prices continued to decline Wednesday, after a government report showed stronger-than-expected inventories and a Federal Reserve report showed a weakening economy. Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell USD -3.98 to settle at USD 124.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil has tumbled nearly USD -23 since setting a record of USD 147.27 just eight trading days ago on July 11. Prices have not been this low since June 4.

The September futures contract became the so-called front-month contract as the August contract, which fell USD -3.09 to settle at USD 127.95 a barrel in the previous session, expired Tuesday.

Oil settled down USD -3.51 from Tuesday's front-month settle. Oil futures contracts typically expire with seven trading days left in the month.

Hopefully the Barisan Nasional government will announce some special insentif in the coming month of August. May be a drop in fuel prices of about RM 0.10 to RM 0.20 per liter. Cross your finger. Any adjustment to the fuel prices will definately help the share market.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Wahhhhh KL Composite Index + 29.84 points with Volume ?

To my surprised I didn't expect today KL Composite Index to close up + 29.84 points at 1,139.41 points. The whole market movement performance was fantastic. Some of the counter even close higher from their previous high created on the rebound form in the last two weeks.

But one counter really impress me with the ways it move. That is AirAsia Berhad. Today the counter fly very high until it reach and close up RM +0.125 per share at RM 1.04 per share. Can be consider the darling stock of the day. Why today market react in this kind of way?

Previous article that I have posted stated that to predict a buy when a sharp fall occur and to sell when a rebound occur is not easy.

But to sell at a small rebound is easy for us to take some profit. This time around the rebound might be longer, it might took 2 to 3 weeks from now. (Roller coaster ride) Please refer to the chart given.

Basically if you look at Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as I mention in my article "Dow Jones Industrial Average at the BOTTOM" (17.07.2008) that the bottom had already been form and any rebound will bring the world market rebound together. From Thursday until now, indeed the DJIA fare very well. With the Crude Oil prices decrease, DJIA able to withstand any more falls in near term and oversold shares in Malaysia market indeed did help the market looking for bargain hunters (ChEaP SaLe)

From their current new low of 10,713.96 points (15.07.2008) until yesterday high at 11,692.79 points, a different of about +978.83 points. This is huge, nearly to 1,000 points gains.

For me my calculation is based on the charts. How high it will go, we will never know ?

But I assume that more or less it will climb up until around 12,000 points. Plus minus about 200 points to 300 points and DJIA might have some roller coaster ride in the coming weeks.

Crude Oil Bubble Burst ?

Today all the sudden, the Crude Oil prices for August delivery tumble across the board. This is a very good sign. From the charts reading, indeed it was a good scenario for the world economy. If we look back from last year Crude Oil Prices movement, it had never been the prices of the Crude Oil fell sharply in six trading days.

At 12.50 am (Malaysian Time) the Crude Oil Prices trade in New York Mercantile Exchange for August delivery down sharply USD -4.14 per barrel at USD 126.90 per barrel.

Usually when there is a correction, the Crude Oil prices will move in range trading in between USD 10.00 to USD 15.00 per barrel before any attempt to move higher. But this time the movement from the all time high created on 11.07.2008 at USD 147.27 per barrel down to USD 125.63 per barrel (lowest level). A minus of USD -21.64 per barrel.

Is this a huge correction or just a temporary downtrend movement for the Crude Oil (Oil Bubble) ? A careful look on its charts and a preview for the past few days movement suggest it maybe an OIL BUBBLE BURST.

This will create a temporary measure for the shares involve in Airlines Industry, reducing their losses on Jet Fuel prices and even to the whole economic around the globe.

"Many reasons are being cited for the oil price boom – speculation, fundamentals, dollar weakness, fuel subsidies, inflation, low interest rates. These factors are playing a part at some time or another, with different factors dominating at various times.

But one factor stands out as the biggest culprit – SPECULATION." - Dali

Monday, July 21, 2008

AirAsia is set to FLY Higher ? Or just "Now Everyone Can Fly"

Well today's market in the early hours drop sharply and even create new low at 1,089.47 points (third support level - 1,090.39 points) before closing down just -1.56 points at 1,103.48 points.

Most of the counter for the whole day looks good but the plantation stock still has a bit of selling here and there.

But today I did notice something different with one particular counter - AirAsia Berhad. I have been following this counter for quite some time and I notice this counter might go even higher with the current closing price (RM 0.92).

AirAsia Berhad is a company best known for its no frills airlines, low fares, quality service and dependability. With over 101 routes across 11 countries at 52 destinations, AirAsia is truly Asia’s leading airline with the widest route connectivity and largest customer base. With the unmistakable tagline, “Now Everyone Can Fly” , AirAsia has made flying affordable for more than 50 million guests.

A few days ago even our market went to some selling activities, AirAsia shares absorb it very well no matter what is happening to the market condition. There seems to be some funds buying and accumulating the shares.

What did you think, still a good buy at this level ? Watch for the Airlines Stock around the world. How will they fare with the current Crude Oil Prices ? If the current Crude Oil Prices show some weakness further, opportunity will arise.

Some people said " Opportunity never arise in front of us. It is how you see and grab an opportunities".

"Believe the Unbelievable, Dream the Impossible, Don’t take NO for an Answer!" Datuk Tony Fernandes

AirAsia Issued and Paid-Up Capital : RM 2,373,729,580
Class of Shares : Ordinary Shares of RM 0.10 each

Saturday, July 19, 2008

What has happen to KL Composite Index ?

Top Losers for Plantation Stocks.

Wah, some new development happens to our market. Yesterday KL Composite Index tumble -16.13 points at 1,105.04 points. Why the index drop so much? What has happen? Still remember how our market went up during last year?

It is all because of our Crude Palm Oil futures prices. Basically our market KL Composite Index last year went up so much and event creates new all time high because of the increase of prices in Plantation stock. Once the price of the plantation counters start to move down, it will have an impact on our KL Composite Index.

If we take a look at the Crude Oil prices for yesterday closing. The Crude Oil prices for August contract already fell for four days. Its has drop for almost USD 17.77 per barrel from its high of USD 147.27 per barrel (11.07.2008) to the close yesterday ( USD -0.41 per barrel) at USD 128.88 per barrel. The Crude Oil prices seems to be getting weaker and weaker. The decline has a litte impact on Crude Palm Oil prices.

In order for the Crude Oil prices to be sure or confirm for its downturn (heading south), a break of its supports level of USD 122.68 per barrel will signal a downturn.

Any future decrease will have a significant impact on the commodities prices. How far the Crude Oil prices will fare? It all depends on the supply and demand or the hedge fund or maybe the speculators.

Special bulletin - Last week various analysts said there was talk that Mexico, the world's fifth largest oil producer, was hedging its bets - the country was said to be signing contracts to deliver oil several years into the future at today's prices. Essentially, it was betting oil prices have peaked.

One analyst, speaking on background only, said he had confirmed Mexico was locking in futures contracts. He said it was being done at the behest of the Mexican government, eager to balance a long-term budget, rather than a bet by state oil company PEMEX, that prices will fall.

But could Mexico's move inspire similar steps from other oil producers, and cause oil prices to fall further?

"Absolutely," said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co., a New York-based energy investment boutique. "It could create a top in [oil prices] in the near term."

Dingmann said about 50% of the production from the firms he covers - mostly small firms - has been sold for future delivery at today's prices.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Dow Jones Industrial Average at the BOTTOM ?

Checks on Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from the previous week trading until this week trading suggest that the bottom (short term) should be form already. From the bad news to the worst news, from almost collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest US purchasers of mortgages to a collapse of US 10th largest bank, IndyMac Bank.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fare the battle in a hoo-haa situation for a weeks before it settle down. A look at the charts on DJIA, the index has drop from previous high of 13,179.97 points (19.05.2008) to 10,731.96 points (17.07.2008). In just took about two months for the index to drop -2,439.01 points. Yesterday the Index climb +276.74 points to close at 11,239.82 points. Do you think a rebound will happen in the first place ? ..................????

If the DJIA did form a bottom at this point, chances for the world market to rebound will be there ? Will KL Composite Index join the Band Wagon ?

A careful technical approach on news and analyst on the current Crude Oil prices need to be included in order to make a wise decision. (from the chart of the Crude Oil prices until 16.07.2008, suggest that the Crude Oil prices are heading south) - will the price go down ? Many analysts still searching for that answer. If the price of the Crude Oil still going down watch for the share of Airlines Industry.

Tension between Israel and Iran. More financial problem will exits in US market. Some even suggest who is going to be the next Bank to collapse after IndyMac Bank. More reports on losses occur from the sub-prime crisis from the big banks and etc…. These are the negative impact that should be included in our judgement and decision.

Proton and The Sale Of M.V. AGUSTA

It is shocking to still hear that Proton made a profit by selling M.V. Agusta which it bought for 70 million Euro and sold for one Euro. The buyer, Gevi Spa did take over the debt of M.V. Agusta but Proton's share of the debt is 57 per cent i.e. 57 per cent of the total debt of 107 million Euro or 61 million Euro.

But M.V. Agusta also had assets in the form of;
1) factories/land/building (80 million Euro - not revalued)
2) stocks/finished products (40 million Euro) Total is 120 million Euro.

Proton's share of these assets would be 57 per cent of 120 million Euro or 68.4 million Euro. When Gevi Spa sold M.V. Agusta's Husqvarna division for 92 million Euro it is not known how much of the debt was taken over.

But Harley Davidson bought Cagiva, an Agusta brand motorcycle and M.V. Agusta for 70 million Euro together with debt of 45 million Euro i.e. the puchase cost by Harley Davidson is really 115 million Euro. So how much did Proton lose? It lost 70 million Euro in purchase price and 68.4 million Euro in assets.

By buying M.V. Agusta together with debt and assets for one Euro and selling the company, assets and debts for Euro 92 million + 70 million + 45 million (debt), Gevi Spa made a profit of 207 million Euro. Basically Proton lost this money by selling at one Euro.

At 5.13 Ringgit to one Euro, Proton lost one billion and sixty-one million Ringgit (1,061,000,000 Ringgit).

At the time when I queried why the Securities Commission did not investigate this loss, I was told the sum was small by comparison to Proton's value and the management had every right to lose this money.

The minority shareholders did not lose anything. For reasons which I cannot understand the minority shareholders actually did not complain. I am not a shareholder but I complained because the deal questioned my integrity and that of Tengku Mahaleel, the CEO.

The Government talks about going for the big fish in our campaign against corruption. Are people who deliberately lose RM 1 billion small fish or big fish?

If indeed we have an independent Anti-Corruption Agency, shouldn't it institute a full investigation of this case? I am told Credit Suisse First Boston advised the management to sell at one Euro.

And the chairman did not examine the advise carefully and implemented it. Both the CSFB and the chairman should be investigated for a very shady deal especially as the buyer was not a welll-known automotive company but an unknown and unlisted company.

Could somebody mysterious be behind Gevi Spa? The stench is very bad.

Statement from Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad Blog.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

KL Composite Index Breaks New Low !

Things get a little bit excited. Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has been arrested with a convoy of 15 police vehicles, Malaysian best blogger in politics Raja Petra Kamarudin has been issued with a warrant of arrest and has been told to surrender to the police by 10.00 am tomorrow morning.

These is what we call instability in our country current political situation. With this thing going around from time to time, anyone who consider to invest in our Malaysian share market should think twice before jump in.

Today KL Composite Index create new low at 1,118.36 points breaking the previous new low set on 04.07.2008 at 1,119.97 points and the index close down -8.18 points at 1,119.42 points. With the new lows set in, anything can happen to the share market.

Tomorrow if the Index heading south, the next supporting level will be at 1,090.39 points. At this moment if we analyst the whole situation in our country, things are not going to get better in our share market. Even after our KL Composite Index rebounded on 09.07.2008, it just stay for a week only.

Stay out from the market, its not wise to send " a batalion of troops to the battlefield if we can't win this Wars. "

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Shame to the Proton Board of Directors............

Cagiva is an Italian motorcycle manufacturer. It was founded in 1950 by Giovanni Castiglioni in Varese, originally producing small metal components. It went into the motorcycle industry in 1978. The name is a portmanteau derived from the founder and the founding location, (i.e. CAstiglioni GIovanni VArese.) Cagiva purchased the MV Agusta name trademarks in 1991 and in 1997 it introduced the first new MV Agusta motorcycle.

MV Agusta is a motorcycle manufacturer founded in 1945 near Milan in Cascina Costa, Italy. MV Agusta was founded in 1907 by Count Giovanni Agusta as an aircraft manufacturer. Motorcycle production began after the Second World War, alongside that of helicopters. From the 1950s, his son, Count Domenico, determined to build the world's fastest racing motorcycles.

But after Count Domenico's death in 1971 and with increasing competition from Japan both on and off the race track, MV Agusta slid into years of decline, financial difficulties and bankruptcy. The marque was resuscitated in the mid-90s after its purchase by Cagiva, another Italian motorcycle maker.

In 1999 for strategic purposes, the company got restructured. MV Agusta Motor became the main brand comprising Cagiva and Husqvarna. The company currently operates under the name MV Agusta S.p.A.

Purchase and Sale by Proton

Heavily indebted, the manufacturer was bought by Malaysian carmaker Proton in December 2004 for 70 million euro. In December 2005 however, Proton decided to cut its ties with MV Agusta and sold it to GEVI S.p.A, a Genoa-based financing company related to Carige, for a token euro excluding debt.

In 2006 the financing company, GEVI S.p.A, with 65% of the share capital, had refinanced MV Agusta, and by so doing allowed the company to continue, and brought MV Agusta ownership back to Italy.

Husqvarna sale to BMW

In July 2007 MV Agusta Motor S.p.A, sold the Husqvarna motorcycle brand to BNW Motorrad for a 90 million Euros. According to MV Agusta president Claudio Castiglioni, the sale was a strategic step to concentrate all of the company's resources in order to expand MV Agusta and Cagiva presence in the international markets having more financial resources for new models development.

Acquisition by Harley-Davidson

On July 11, 2008 Harley-Davidson announced they had signed a definitive agreement to acquire the MV Agusta Group for 70 million Euros ($109 million USD). The acquisition is expected to close in the coming weeks.

Jim Ziemer, chief executive of Harley-Davidson, said: “Motorcycles are the heart and the soul of Harley- Davidson and MV Agusta. They make great products and have a close relationship with an incredibly faithful group of customers.

“MV is synonymous with very beautiful Italian motorcycles of superior quality. The acquisition of MV Agusta will enable us to strengthen the position of Harley-Davidson as a global leader that aims to turn its clients' dreams into reality by offering them an extraordinary experience.”

From this article and research that I have done, truly is not worth of 1 Euros (RM 5) to be sold off. What ever happen to current Proton Holdings Berhad management, it seems to be they are steping in the wrong way.

Today the truth has come out and I understand now why all the time Tengku Mahaleel and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad defend and objected the sales of M.V Agusta. Shame on our current Proton Boards of Directors and shame also to our current Prime Minister Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

M.V. Augusta Sold for 70 Millions Euros

Milwaukee, Wis., July 11, 2008 - Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) announced the signing of a definitive agreement to purchase the Italian motorcycle maker MV Agusta Group (MVAG). Under the agreement, Harley-Davidson will acquire 100 percent of MV Agusta Group shares for total consideration of approximately 70 million euros ($109 million), which includes the satisfaction of existing bank debt for approximately 45 million euros ($70 million).

In addition, the agreement provides for a contingent payment to Claudio Castiglioni in 2016, if certain financial targets are met. MV Agusta Group is privately held, with the Castiglioni family owning 95 percent of MVAG shares.

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad comments:

1. Proton bought this Italian motorcycle maker for 70 million Euro (about RM350 million).

2. Its savvy management sold it for 1 Euro (RM5) to an unknown company in Italy.

3. Some months ago Husqvarna, a division of M.V. Agusta which manufactures scrambler sporty off-road motorcycles was sold to a German company, BMW for 90 million Euro (RM450 million). Now the rest of M.V. Agusta has been bought by Harley-Davidson Motor Cycles of the United States for RM350 million.

4. So Proton lost approximately RM800 million selling M.V. Agusta for RM5. The buyer invested one Euro and made 160 million Euro.

5. Do we need a Royal Commission to look into this or should the ACA investigate this matter particularly the role of Credit Suisse who was paid a huge consultancy fee to advise Proton's management who executed it.

6. Or maybe we do not mind losing RM800 million because we have so much money.


" It quite a surprised to known that something is going wrong with the sale of M.V. Augusta (57.75 %) held by Proton Holdings Berhad previously. Why selling for 1 Euro (RM 5) where by other company are buying it at 70 million euros for 100 % ??? " I'm so curious to know what is really happen to the new management of Proton Holdings Berhad.

Monday, July 14, 2008

KL Composite Index Moving Side Way........

Basically today I did try to learn something new about studying the trend or the movement of the share prices after recent sharp falls. I did notice after the recent sharp falls the market show some sign of strength particularly for those recently sharp drops counters even though Dow Jones Industrial Average close sharply down on Friday market (11.07.2008).

With the instability political situation in our country, the share market today show some interesting movement after two hours of trade. A bit up but overall performance can be consider either mixed or either bad. The KL Composite Index close down -6.39 points at 1,144.00 points.

Last time I do not care that much because I never record it down but now the situation is a bit different. I’m trying to be a blogger. I need to learn and study the whole market movement before giving a comment. Some people might say that I’m very lucky this time (making some returns during recently sharp falls) but for me whenever I’m involve in the share market, particularly during a sharp falls, I always learn that whenever there is a sharp falls with the RSI (relative strength index) oversold couple with some very bad news, the share prices would eventually try to adjust by digesting the overall selling in the market and moved up.

Since last week some of the counter already out of energy to climb up to a higher level, but some of these good counter are still moving forwards. Today Resorts World climbing to a new fresh high at RM 2.70 per share with YTL Power at RM 1.83 per share and Gamuda at RM 2.61 per share.

Watch out for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Rakyat. Some rumour stated that there will be some major development coming in this August or September.

Also watch out for financial site in US. The first Bank to collapse in US. IndyMac Bank FSB, the largest savings-and-loan in Los Angeles and the 10th-largest in the U.S., was taken over on July 11 by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. It had assets of $32 billion and $19.6 billion in deposits at the end of March. The bank is a subsidiary of IndyMac Bancorp Inc. The collapse is expected to cost the FDIC between $4 billion and $8 billion dollars. This does not come as much of a shock, as the 99% plummet in the bank's stock price indicated that failure was a strong possibility. However, there are fears that other regional banks face collapse.

Wahhhh .... there is a chances that more financial institution are facing the same problem in other reginal banks. Is this a TIME BOMB ??? " Still remember Black Monday, Oct 19, 1987 ??? "

Friday, July 11, 2008

KL Composite Index Rebounded. How far would it go ?

When I first started to brought some share during last week sharp fall it would like " catching a fallen knife." Frankly I'm telling my self that this is the only chances for me to make some return. It would like catching a fallen share prices without knowing whether it would burn my returns and I survive with some small returns.

"A survey to the whole market situation suggested that the market will stage a rebound by next week. How far will it go, it's all depend on the political situation in our country. The entry points is very important in order to make profits. How about today ? Is today is an entry points ? (make your own judgement). " remember this article........It was posted on 4th July 2008 (Friday) title "Accumulate or Not to Accumulate ?"

As I mention our market indeed make a remarkable rebound and close higher to end this week with a gain. The KL Composite Index gain +14.90 points to close at 1,150.39 points on Firday. A gain of +16.25 points versus the last week close of 1,134.14 points (1,150.39 minus 1,134.14). For me I'm already consider the market has done it jobs (rebound).

Next week market movement will be based on current fundamental, political news, crude oil prices, economics, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and etc. At this moment I would stay away for a while and examine how the market will react with the whole current unstablity political enviroments.

Beware of the Bears Market that's going to take control of the share market. Stay on the sidelines will be the best strategy to adopt and watch how the Bears will rule the market. The Bull is currently resting in order to gain some energy and will charge towards a Super Bull run in the future when the Bears is exhausted.

'It often requires more courage to dare to do right than to fear to do wrong.'

Abraham Lincoln

"I'm not trying to be a hero but to share my knowledge and experiance that I have gain from all these years studying the trend pattern, investing or speculate in the share market."

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Steinhardt Says Stocks Will Extend Drop on Banks, Oil

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Steinhardt, the investment pioneer whose hedge funds returned more than 20 percent a year for almost three decades, said U.S. stocks will keep falling even as ''contrarian'' buy signals abound.

Record oil prices and the credit-market slump that spurred more than $400 billion in asset writedowns and loan losses at banks worldwide will prevent the market from rallying, Steinhardt, 67, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 19.99 percent from its October record through yesterday, just short of the 20 percent threshold of a so-called bear market.

''There are genuine, solid, fearful reasons for a bear market,'' Steinhardt said. ''I don't think we're at a bottom.'' He added, ''I can think of only one quick fix, which is a dramatic, substantial drop in the price of oil.''

Steinhardt was 19 when he started his Wall Street career as a securities analyst after graduating in 1960 from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. In 1967, he opened New York-based Steinhardt Management Co., which produced hedge-fund returns averaging 24 percent a year for the next 28 years.

He closed the firm in 1995 when it had $2.6 billion under management to pursue philanthropy. He is chairman of WisdomTree Investments Inc., a New York-based asset-management firm that offers exchange-traded funds. 'Inexplicable' Advance.

Crude oil surged 88 percent in the past year and reached a record $145.85 a barrel on July 3. Some of that advance is sustainable, Steinhardt said.

''A lot of it's political, a lot of it is inexplicable, but I don't think oil at $100 a barrel is very difficult to imagine,'' he said. ''If there were a will in the key centers of power in this country to get the price of oil down, it would come down.''

The Federal Reserve, which cited rising oil prices last month after ending its most aggressive monetary easing in two decades, should raise interest rates ''a little bit'' to restrain inflation, which is on the verge of accelerating, Steinhardt said. Consumer prices in the U.S. climbed 4.2 percent in the year through May and probably rose at a 4.5 percent pace in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Rising bets against U.S. stocks and growing pessimism among investors, usually indicators that it's time to purchase shares, are giving a false buy signal, he said. 'This Time It's Different'

''There is rarely a moment such as this where as a contrarian, one sees so many reasons technically, stock market- wise to be bullish. I can't imagine a circumstance where a market is more available, more ripe for a rally than this one,'' Steinhardt said. Still, ``this time it's different,'' he added.

General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., airlines, banks, mortgage lenders and brokerages, "companies and industries that heretofore had been sacrosanct,'' are in jeopardy amid higher inflation and slowing economic growth, he said. GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, retreated 72 percent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average's biggest loss since the measure's record high in October.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

KL Composite Index make a Remarkable Rebound !

From my calculation and projections, indeed the market has temporary bottom out. A check with all the counter prices from my previous blog suggest that any individual who dares to buy from last week Wednesday, Friday and Monday markets (07.07.2008) stand to gain from today closing.

Yesterday I sold off a little bit of shares because of the current market conditions didn't allow me to hold quite a number of my positions. Still making gains but not much. KL Composite Index gain +18.56 points to close at 1,139.81 points.

The points is that I still remember and recall one of the top remisier said that " If there is a sharp drop in the market, the chances for us to make money will always be there (rebound). A lot of them who are buying at high now suffer the most, how about the people who brought the share at low, will they suffer or face the same situation ? I don't think so. " But basically this statement is all about the right timing - The Entry Points.

Charts never lies to us, it just show you and guide your analysis to the overall market movement and make an asumptions on it, to move up or to move down. Today I might be right but tomorrow its will all depend on how the US market perform and our capability to hold and sell at the right price. A rebound already taken its tolls. It has just started, how many days it will last ? I don't know, but for sure it will be like a roller-coaster ride. To sell or not to sell ?

I'm only capable of tracing when is the right time to buy but cannot always be judge as an answer to accumulate any counter. I might be wrong one day, I'm just only a human being.

Here are some of the few counters that need to pay some attention from the recently sharp drop. Resorts World Berhad, YTL Power International Berhad, Sunrise Berhad. Check on these charts. Do their share prices consider cheap at this level ? Looks attractive but I'm still cautious.