Sunday, August 31, 2008

Where Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Heading To ?

MERDEKA, MERDEKA .... Happy 51st Birthday to Malaysia.

Where is Dow Jones Industrial Average is heading to? If we look at the chart it shows that DJIA are forming a similarity pattern way back from beginning of the year 2008.

It went up a bit before tumbling down again. Hope this would not really happen. As this would again hurt the world market.

The charts shows that the DJIA still have more rooms to go up but I still doubt about what really happen in US economy.

As been suggested by some of the news that there have been some recent signs that US economy is beginning to improve.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, rose by 3.3 percent in the April-June quarter. This surprised analysts and was a significant rebound from growth of just 0.9 percent in the first quarter of the year.

Most credit was given to the $93 billion in economic stimulus payments the federal government has sent to households since May.

Do you think this will sustained, I'm quite doubt about it as I can see we might see another sell out in US market. Time will tell but how long, I don't know. Just watch. The reason is -.............

Other economic news this week showed that right after that second quarter, in July, consumer spending slowed to a crawl and personal incomes plunged.

With few stimulus payments still to go out, some economists worry consumer spending will continue to falter.

Since it accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, that could send economic growth tumbling again in the second half of the year, particularly given rising unemployment, a continuing credit crisis and the deepest housing slump in decades.

By the way, like to watch a movie? Please make your self free to watch DEATH RACE. For me it is a good movie.

I never knew it would be so interesting when they race and fight together for the first place because only one person is allowed to be alive.

It a bit different story. Watch it and you might not regret it.

The main actor is Jason Statham. He is a good actor. I have been following his entire movie and this time he is doing quite well in this movie.

Friday, August 29, 2008

KL Composite up 30.04 on Budget Day? Wah...

After a six days trip to Thailand from 24th August till 29th August, I was quite surprised that today the KL Composite Index went up +30.04 points to close at 1,100.50 points.

No doubt today was a Budget Days, it appear that this is the first time the market move up so much during a budget announcement.

I rather stay at the sideline until I have more confident towards the market. Today in Thailand the police clash with the protesters at the Government House in Bangkok.

Some of the protesters are blocking access in and out to Hatyai International Airport, Krabi International Airport and Phuket International Airport. Their countries are now in a huge problem.

Workers at Hua Lum Pong train stations in Bangkok are taking leaves in order to protest the government decision to take an action against the protesters.

Some rumours are circulation that the Thai International Airways' Labour Union has called for its members to take leave immediately to protest the police's use of forces against anti-government protesters. Their aims is to cripple the current Samak Sundravej Governments.

I still can remember when the Bank of Thailand announce that they impose 30% restriction (from taking out any investment in Thailand) in order to strengthen their Bath value. Many investors flee the country and find Malaysia is a safe place to bet and wait until Bank of Thailand lift up the restriction.

During that time our market gradually move slowly and shot up and create new high and new high. Can the current political situation in Thailand really help our Malaysia share market? Still too early to talk about that but I would say maybe or maybe not?

In my days as a blogger since June 2008, I did find there are few blogger who is quite good in terms of giving advice and giving prediction on where our KL Composite Index was heading to.

Some of the blogger like and They are good, they are really good. Their advice is giving me many clues and guide on how to trade and their point of view towards this market. I’m new and still learning.

Although my blog is about Malaysian Shares, I will write other article as well but will try to stay on concentrating writing as many article about Malaysian Shares as long as I could because I LOVE SHARE MARKET.

This article was prepare while my flight in the air from Bangkok to Kuala Lumpur (FD 3575) 18.45 pm - 21.50 pm.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Pakatan Rakyat Will Rock the Market One Day..........?

It appears that the market is heading to no where. At the moment what can really help the market to regain its momentum ? Its quite hard to predict.

Most of the investors already stay sidelines and are searching for a fresh lead following Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim huge majority wins at Permatang Pauh.

Political situation in Thailand almost the same in Malaysia. Their politics also in a mess. People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) briefly seizing control of a television station, invading government offices and occupying Government House.

They also tell their Prime Minister Samak Sundravej to step down. In Malaysia some of the UMNO leaders want our Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to step down.

In my experience involve in share market since 1988, I would say usually in order for the market staging a move, a sharp fall must exist in order to make it look attractive to speculators and investors.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is the new opposition head of Pakatan Rakyat. Still there will be a lot of story and movie to watch on.

It is quite important to follow their movement and activity because what ever they do, one day ……… sure one day ….. they will rock our share market and KL Composite Index.

Remember to watch on Sept 16, as Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has said, there will be a jump over from BN to Pakatan Rakyat.

But former Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad said that it is impossible to get the 30 MPs to cross over as it cost a lot of money to do it. Unless Datuk Seri Anwar have this .........$$$$$$$.......... amount to buy them ? What a day.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

UEM World Berhad Create New Lows Again.

How the market condition now ? Down -9.69 points at the moment at about 1,069.04 points. To be frank I'm still watching it. Not good, it is bad. MRCB Berhad started to post new low again. There is one counter, UEM World Berhad is making new and new low again.

Today the counter posted some losses of about RM-0.10 at RM 2.44 per share. A low never seen since 17.08.2007 when the counter create new low at RM 2.23 per share.

This will be the next supporting level for UEM World. If this level break the next supporting level will be RM 2.10 per share.

Today the outcome result for Permatang Pauh by-election will determine how our market will react tomorrow. Dare to buy any of these share ? For me it is not worth it if we have to take the risk to determine our income.

Just watch the movie. It might turn out to be a good movie after all, if Datuk Seri Anwar wins.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Can Anwar Follow Thaksin Shinawatra Step ?

How long Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will stay as MP in Permatang Pauh and in the parliament ? No one will know. This only happen if he win the Permatang Pauh by-election this coming Tuesday.

From my point of view, I don't think it will be an easy task for Datuk Seri Anwar to overcome the sodomy cases. But what to do, the hearing and the trial will begin on 10th September 2008. Thing look a bit different now as Datuk Seri Anwar is using his method to overcome the difficulty and allegation towards him.

When Saiful made a police reports against him, Anwar has been summoned to attend a court hearing on his case. In order to cover himself, her wife make a scacrifie by withdrawl from become an MP in Permatang Pauh.

"A man is innocent until proven guilty". What happen to former Thailand prime minister Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra ? He was overthrew by the military coup, come back to fight the court charges, allegation and now........ he has apply for asylum from the British government.

Will this happen to Datuk Seri Anwar as MP for Permatang Pauh, if this issue in court turn out to be ugly, it will the darkest politic history in Malaysia. He might try to seek asylum in other country if the court are against him....

Some special article to share with .........

Najib accuses Anwar of selling out the country

SEBERANG PERAI: Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has accused Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as one who would resort to all means to topple the government.

He said Anwar, when he was the deputy prime minister and finance minister, undertook all means to destroy the country’s economy, even when he knew it would result in the people suffering.

Najib alleged that Anwar did so in a bid to overthrow then prime minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

"He raised interest rates and also reduced the term for non-performing loans from six months to three months which had serious repercussions. He was even willing to hand over the country’s economic affairs and administration to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

“Now, he speaks as though he is the expert on the economy,” Najib said after visiting a BN operations centre at Taman Semilang.

He called on the voters not to be tricked by Anwar’s claims of a unified Pakatan Rakyat, which he described as just that, a pact and not a coalition.

“The parties in PR are not in there together because of the same struggles, there is a loose pact with each party having different ideologies and beliefs.

“It will be disastrous for them to attempt to rule the country,” Najib added.

Meanwhile, Najib lambasted the PR for playing up religious sentiments during their campaigning. He said the federal constitution clearly stated that Islam was the official religion in the country but other races and creed were free to practise their own.

“This is guaranteed in the constitution and we are firm about this and it should not be exploited. The opposition is desperate enough to do anything to gain extra points with voters, even if it means inciting religious sentiments,” he added.

He warned that opposition supporters would go all out to disrupt the voting process including resorting to scare tactics so that BN supporters would not come out to vote.

He expected the rogue mannerisms of the PKR supporters to worsen in the final hours tomorrow and warned that police would take the necessary action to face such a scenario.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Anwar Ibrahim to win by-election ? What Would Happen ?

Yesterday someone ask me about the possibility if Anwar win this by-election and become MP in Permatang Pauh, what would happen to our share market ? This is quite an interesting questions as I’m also looking forward towards these questions.

When we discuss about this matter, if Datuk Seri Anwar win then our share market will go down (or maybe go up) but if the Datuk Seri Anwar lose then the share market will shot up. How high will it go ? 20 points or 30 points up or maybe it might go down ?

But for sure, from the current situation Datuk Seri Anwar still the favourite, no matter how hard the BN government try to send their troops to the battlefield to win this battle but at last they sure will lose this war.

I’m has been reading a lot of article about Permatang Pauh by-election but it seems to be all the readers are supporting Datuk Seri Anwar to win these war. No matter Datuk Seri Anwar win or lose, the most important thing is that it will not bring any major changes to our current share market performance.

For me, if we want to see a stabilize and healthy share market is when Datuk Seri Anwar can form his own government with a majority of 2/3 or else it would still be the same as the current situation now. If he can’t form a government of 2/3 then the situation will turn even worst than we can think of.

A healthy share market to invest only happen when there is stability in our country politic.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Oil: Are You Sure, Is This A SUPPLY or DEMAND ?

Oil prices plummeted Friday, the biggest drop in 17 years, erasing the previous session's spike, as the dollar strengthened and investors worried that a decline in demand will spread outside the United States.

U.S. crude for October delivery dropped USD -6.59 to settle at USD 114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Yesterday there was a website arguing that Crude Oil prices moves because its was driven by SUPPLY and DEMAND. Now what has happen today, still want to call it a supply and demand ? "Its a SPECULATION by the speculators."

Yesterday the Crude Oil Prices surged more than USD 6 on Thursday to touch USD 122 a barrel, on a falling dollar and rising concerns about global supply. (that what the article write about)

U.S. crude for October delivery ended USD +5.62 higher at USD 121.18 a barrel, having reached as high as $122.04. Thursday's settlement price was the highest close since Aug. 4, when crude closed at $121.41.

Do you call this one is A SUPPLY or DEMAND again ? Yesterday up USD 5.62 a barrel and today drop USD 6.59 a barrel. Nothing happen in this world at the moment. Do you see any war going on ?

BE RELEVENT and understand that no doubt prices are largely driven by a supply and demand, without speculation there won't be a huge price jump different.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Anwar Ibrahim VS Arif Shah

Since Datuk Seri Anwar and Datuk Arif Shah trying hard to win some votes at Permatang Pauh, all the sudden the BN government strike another jackpot for the country.

Lowering the fuel prices from a RM 2.70 per litre to RM 2.55 per litre. A little bit discount of just RM 0.15 per litre for petrol. Diesel from RM 2.58 per litre to RM 2.50 per litre. A discount of RM 0.08 per litre.

This is great for the country because last month our country inflation rate hit 27 years high to 8.5% in July, way above analyst forecasts for 7.8% in a Reuters poll, and sharply up from 7.7% in June. This move sure will dampen inflation rate in the coming months. Hope so.......

With the deduction of fuel prices, no wonder why our share market today perform nicely. KL Composite Index went up +14.17 points to close at 1,085.60 points. The Index is also being help by the rise in Plantation stocks.

Some special article........

QUESTIONS put forward to both Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim

1. What is the significance of this by-election to you?
It is to enable me to represent the rakyat in Permatang Pauh with a clear agenda. The agenda is for change in the country and that is why we touch on the price hike issue, on national unity, economic programmes and advancement in good governance.

2. Some say this by-election is really a contest between you and Datuk Seri Najib Razak to be the next prime minister.
This is Pakatan (Rakyat) versus BN. What is critical is the agenda, not the personalities. It's what we stand for. Pakatan policy is obvious and I have mentioned it before. And what Umno stands for is known to the rakyat. They have condoned corruption and enriched a few in the name of the New Economic Policy (NEP).

3. What do you think of Arif?
He has served the Seberang Jaya (state seat) constituents, but he represents Umno. Umno condones racial politics, corruption and has mismanaged the economy.

4. Observers say you have the upper hand.
The majority Azizah (Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail) obtained in March was massive . But you know the whole cabinet is here, the entire federal government resources are here. And of course the mainstream media attack me. We have to work very hard.

5. Chinese votes are very significant in this by-election. Are you confident you can get most of their votes?
I am encouraged by the level of support. But we are working hard in the Chinese areas. I am sure the Chinese will choose a party that will represent all races.

6. (Former Parti Keadilan Youth chief) Ezam Mohd Noor is campaigning against you. Is he a problem to you?
He is a non-issue. He has to impress his master.

7. You have been criticised by Umno for your stand on the NEP.
The problem with the Umno-controlled media is that they are so biased that they do not report our views. I would suggest you read our Malaysia Economic Agenda. I stand by what I have said there. Our policy is to raise our competitiveness and to help the rakyat, the majority of whom are Malays. I oppose a policy which is enriching Umno leaders and their representatives.

Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah

1. What is the meaning of this by-election for you?
It's a blessing for the cleansing of the curse on Permatang Pauh. In the past 10 years, Permatang Pauh has been represented by the opposition. Federal assistance has been denied to the people here because it's an opposition area. It's because the opposition MP did not have good accessibility and relationship with the federal (government).

With this contest, the people of Permatang Pauh have been given an opportunity to choose between gambling their future for the next five years and voting for Barisan Nasional so that they can enjoy the benefits.

2. People say this is really an election between Anwar and Najib.
People can say what they like. To us and the people in Permatang Pauh, this is an opportunity for them to have someone who can provide service to them. It's not a fight between Anwar and Najib; it's a fight for the people to take back the seat from the opposition.

3. What do you think of Anwar?
He has some strength being a popular figure globally and in the state. But my strength is that the people now want change. I am an opposition member in the state. Even though I am the state assemblyman, I have no access to a lot of funding from the state government.

Therefore, it is vital for them to give me the opportunity to be an MP. Coupled with my good relationship with the prime minister, deputy prime minister and the federal government, I would be able to have access to federal funding.

4. Anwar says Umno is playing the racial card.
I am a person who subscribes to a multiracial (agenda), sharing of wealth and opportunities. But certain privileges that are for the Malays, no one, including myself, can touch on them. What we want is to enlarge the cake so that the non-Malays would not feel that they have been neglected.

You can see the changes in the federal government now; they have relaxed scholarship quota and assisted Chinese and Tamil schools. In the state assembly, I have fought for the Chinese to have a funeral parlour in Seberang Jaya. I have also asked the current state government to give RM1,000 every year to each "po tou" (hungry ghost festival). I don't have to speak for them, but I speak. (quite interesting........)

5. Anwar said you are a good guy but you subscribe to a racist Umno.
If I subscribe to racism, I won't send my children to Chinese schools. Anwar and other opposition members are purposely creating the impression that Umno is a racist party. No, if Umno is a racist party, it would not subscribe to have BN and share power with other component parties.

6. Umno leaders have criticised Anwar's views on the NEP. What sort of economic policy do you advocate?
The NEP has been made out to be a racist policy that promotes cronyism. The problem here is not the NEP. The NEP has also benefited other races. For example, if a construction (project) is awarded to a Malay company, 60% of its hardware supply has to come from the Chinese because there are no Malays in the hardware supply business. So if it's RM100 million, RM60 million goes to the Chinese. Anwar is portraying the wrong situation. The truth will prevail one day.

Which to choose Datuk Seri Anwar or Datuk Arif Shah ?

Anwar Threatens to ‘Open Can of Worms'

How good is Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in threatens to "open can of worms"? Few weeks back he use private investigator P.Balasubramanian to threatens Datuk Seri Najib political future and it appear it was a failure.

This time around, it seems to be the attack from both of them is going to get out of hand. Four days more before we knew who will represent the Permatang Pauh.

Haiiiii....... This is not good for our current political secnario. If thing turn ugly, another shock to Bursa Malaysia Index might trigger the falls. Talking about possibility of KL Composite Index reaching 980 points........might happen if current situation still instability.

BUKIT MERTAJAM: Don't push your luck with me or I will open your can of worms! This was the threat issued by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak following allegations which resurfaced here against him.

The latest was that of him ogling at the wife of Larut member of parliament (MP) and Deputy Housing and Local Government Minister Hamzah Zainuddin a decade ago.

At a gathering in Permatang Pauh (P44) on Tuesday night, Hamzah repeated the allegations which first also surfaced in 1998.

"I am being very patient all this time, but I would like to warn them not to push me beyond the limit. If I open my mouth on personal matters, Najib will be kept busy answering them for a very long time. I have refrained from doing so, as this is not a personal battle but about the political future of the country.

"Remember, I too was in the government and I was privy to a lot of information. Najib knows what I know and he knows what I am talking about. Don't push me to respond or he will regret it," Anwar said.

Anwar, who labelled the Barisan Nasional (BN) leaders as hypocrites, said they should be the last people to talk about morality.

On Tuesday night, at several ceramahs, Anwar warned Najib that he would not hesitate to expose "Port Dickson" if the latter did not stop the personal attacks against him.

He also criticised Hamzah and threatened to take legal action against him. "Why didn't he lodge a police report? How can a deputy minister use the campaign about his wife being ‘disturbed' and please tell me how or where was she ‘disturbed'?

"Don't be a hypocrite, and I know these people are being used to deflect the real issues here. What kind of a human being would make such allegations and I cannot believe Umno would stoop so low and I believe there is more to come.

"I wouldn't be surprised if there are video tapes distributed even in the villages now, videos of Sukma Darmawan's and Dr Munawar Ahmad Anees' admission of me sodomising them being distributed though this issue is 10 years old," Anwar said at a press conference.

Anwar added that despite the allegations being thrown repeatedly at him, he would proceed with his policy of good governance, fairness and reducing the hardships of the people.

Kings of Spartans - Bursa Malaysia 980 points ?

When I started to become a blogger about two months back, I never really knew there is such a huge share market bloggers around in Malaysia. Some of them quite good and some of is really good. Basically I can say I'm learning a lot from them.

Here one of the article I would like you all to share with. Why ? Because I like the movie title 300 Spartans. I still can remember, this is the best movie that capture me my surprised when I watch it at cinema. So come on Spartans, lets join the band wagon. "TO THE VICTORY"

Dear Spartans,

This afternoon while having my tea time at Kluang, (I am here in Kluang Johor for a 2 days working trip), sipping my hot Kluang coffee, suddenly I have a vision from Oracle and it told me that KLCI is heading below 1,000 points and to be exact, it is heading to 980 points. This will happen in 2 months time at most.

Therefore, I am sorry to tell you that, unless you can short the market, there is no way anymore for you to make money even with Catching Falling Knife Technique by King Edmund Spartan. In other words please, please, please stay out of the market.

Eventhough, I would like to seek Glory and Fame, to be embraced by my Spartans, and to be the number 1 Financial Blog in Malaysia, but 1 thing I will not do is to lead my Spartans to hell. Unlike the actual movie where the King lead the Spartans to hell for Glory, I, King Spartan Edmund will only lead my warrior to heaven or Iketeru Restaurant->my all time favorite restaurant in Hilton.

Therefore, I hope all my loyal spartans will trust me and my humble judgement + vision from the oracle and STAY THE FARKING HELL OUT OF THE MARKET. There is no way for you to make money in this market. The catching falling knife strategy is not usable anymore, and even it is usable, it is not worth taking the risk.

Thank you my loyal Spartans especially Lipyoong, CCDEV, Samnoballs, Benjamin Lau, DPC, Ningen for your continous support and Never Give Up attitude in Winbursa, especially in this hard time. You will surely be there with me, when I celebrate my 1st million by end of 2009.

For you all farking traitor and impostor out there who trying to destroy Winbursa-The number 1 Financial Blog in Malaysia, all I can say and do to you is this "May you live forever".

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Stay Sideline The Best Strategies At The Moment.

It appear that the anticipate of a continuing sharp falls didn't realize. So I would say that this time around I would still stay at the sideline. Still monitor.

We still need to remember that next week would be a week full of surprised, maybe fuel prices drop, BN MPs jump over to PKR, DAP or maybe PAS ? Who knows ? Budget announcement on 29.08.2008.

Right at the moment I'm not going to comment about some of the share listed because in my believe whenever KL Composite Index going down, counters listed will follow the performance of our index.

Datuk Seri Anwar and Datuk Seri Najib, both of them are playing cat and mouse game, trying to win some votes from the voters and there will be a lot of hot money involve. Donation, Fundings and Contribution.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Another Trading Halt at Bursa Malaysia ?

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to form a new government after the by-election ? Still remember how our market drop during the election results on 08.03.2008. Any similarity ?

The PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat) claims that 13 BN (Barisan Nasional) MPs in Sabah are waiting to hop over to the opposition if Anwar Ibrahim win the by-election and this will follow by the MPs in Sarawak.

So exciting our country current political situation. How true is the claims, we will wait and see. But for certain the effect on our share market will be great if this thing do happen.

Remember the 10% drop in KL Composite Index where by the Bursa Malaysia halt the trading ? We cannot say it can't happen but we must be alert all the time.

How nice if our the current political scenario is stabil rather than what had happen in Thailand government, the instability has cause so much trouble to the people in Thailand.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Condition For Catching a Knife ? Wear......G.... !

Today is Tuesday, still early to mention when is the right time. Still monitor the whole situation. I still prefer the market would drag down until next week after by-election.

Budget announcement is around the corner. KL Composite Index down -14.94 points to close at 1,069.42 points.

Today Crude Palm Oil Futures tumble again after opening high. At one time the CPO for November delivery fell RM-134.00 per tonne to RM 2,351 per tonne before close down RM-49.00 per tonne at RM 2,436.00.

If we take a look for a while and think for a moment, it seems to be the most of the commodities prices are heading south. Even equity market are also going down.

Selling pressure still very high. Possibility the selling will continue for tomorrow is very high. Talking about catching a falling knife, how we want to catch, which one is the right counter ?

Conditions to catch the right counter :

The counter drop for so many days.

Volume for that counter should be high all the time.

The best when the counter face some selling pressure, it should be following with the KL Composite Index sharp drop.

Don't go for the counter with lower turnover. (This only apply to those who have the ability to hold the share)

If you can, look for Profitable company, MMC Corporation, favourite counter among all the traders, MRCB and solid company like Resorts Worlds.

Actually there is still a few more conditions that I would like to write down but it is hard to explain how to use it.

That is YOUR Feeling, YOUR Guts, YOUR Capability and YOUR Believe. If we want to apply this thing on us at the right time and the right place, I can tell you it won't be easy.

I have gone through the whole situation and I can say how good you are as a trader, one day eventually....... or sometimes you will fell off also.

So better to do more homeworks rather than become like LILIAN TOO. Heee....Heeee....Heeee....

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is still campaining strong at Permatang Pauh. Hopefully the outcome of the by-election results will favour the markets or else a lot fund managers don't dare to invest their money in our country.

Need to posted some girls picture or else everytime if we look at the charts, our eyes might be like PANDA.

Picture : TATA YOUNG

How Sharp the KL Composite Index KNIFE ?

Yesterday the market indeed close at low and break the recently supporting level of 1,089.47 points (21.07.2008). The market down -10.69 points to close at 1,084.36 points. But if tomorrow the Index can climb up then the whole situation need to be reconsider. But I'm doubt about that.

Although the market volume remain low, there are so many counter posted double digit decline. Its looks attractive but I would prefer it go down some more, may be in a drastic way. If the market go down slowly, I would prefer to stay out.

At the moment it is too early to say that the market has already near to its bottom. Yesterday MRCB and MMC Corporation making new lows. Not only these two counters but some of them are making new lows. How far will they drop ? Where is their bottom ?

Yesterday afternoon before the market open I just mention about catching a falling knife and it appears that the opportunity has just arrive but it is not a right time to take an action now.

A careful watch on how the market will move this few days will determine whether time has arrive. I think this few days we need to glue our balls of eyes on to the screen to watch the whole situation.

"Opportunity do exist but how good you are in catching the right stock will determine your wealth."

Monday, August 18, 2008

Another Fall Like a Falling Knife ?

A check on the overall market suggest that the KL Composite Index is heading to the SOUTH. Basically if we look at most of the counter, some of them already started to move down. The so called rebound of 2-3 weeks has already been perform.

Still remember how to catch a falling knife? It is not easy to catch but a good timing to determine when is the right time to do it. From what I have seen here this market might be drag until the election date 26.08.2008.

Any rebound in Crude Palm Oil Futures will definitely help to ease some tension facing by KL Composite Index but for me to play and make some profit from this current market, we need to be patient and wait for the right timing.

Friday, August 15, 2008

KL Composite Index Heading for 1,000 Points ?

Situation turn out to be bad for KL Composite Index. The Index today tumble -14.38 points to close at 1,095.05 points. A break of below 1,100.00 points.

Plantation futures today face the most critical points when today the CPO for October delivery closed down RM -167 per tonne at RM 2,453 per tonne. At one time it drops nearly RM -228 per tonne at RM 2,392 per tonne.

Usually this scenario stated that the Crude Palim Oil prices are nearly to the bottom low. Just watch. A rebound might happen maybe in next week market. Small rebound.

In NYMEX futures trading the Crude Oil prices also went down nearly USD -2.00 per barrel at USD 113.00 per barrel. Everything is falling. (local time 6.00 pm)

Again MMC Corporation Berhad created new lows. Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Berhad was hit hard when in seven trading days from as high as RM 9.10 per share (06.08.2008) already fell more than RM -1.45 per share to close RM 7.65 per share (14.08.2008).

I would like stated that the current market still heading to no where. Stay out from this market. Monitoring the share market movement still maintain as a very good strategies at the moment. A 1,000 points for KL Composite Index still consider valid.

Tomorrow will be a nomination day at Permatang Pauh. There will be a bit of arguments here and there between the supporters. After this election, we must look ahead when the new government will be form. There so many question that we need to do some research in order to find out an answer.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Anwar Ibrahim to be like Thaksin Shinawatra ?

KL Composite Index is very week. How long this weaknesses will last ? The KL Composite Index close down -6.25 points at 1,112.53 points, 23 points above its lower level recorded at 1,089.47 points on 21.07.2008. If this level break, I can say bye-bye to our KL Composite Index. Our market are hopeless.

IOI Corporation Berhad create a new low today in tandem with the Crude Palm Oil prices decline. Once a darling counter among all the plantation stocks since 2005, this counters also cannot stand the selling pressure.

Today it break its support level of RM 4.76 per share (06.08.2008) but luckily it close above this level or else tomorrow it might turn out to be ugly. If we look at this market movement right now. Everything seems to be bad for the index although some of the share prices still remains almost the same.

Political situation in Malaysia still unstable. There is one question I would like to ask everyone ? If Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim win the by-election in Permatang Pauh and become a Member of Parliament and have to attend a court hearing in September for sodomy.

If the court rulling are against him, will Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim been jail for allegation of sodomy cases or he might do the same like former Prime Minister of Thailand Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra who is running away to seek asylum in England after they fail in their process of freeing themselves from all sort of allegations in the court.

How our share market would react then. This are the few thing that need to be consider.

Thai shares open higher or rose 19.48 points or 2.82 per cent following reports that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife fled to England instead of returning to be tried in a corruption case.

It might happen, it just that the different is Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra is a billionaire and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is just have million hair. Who knows ?

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Blames Spikes in Oil prices on Speculators

Speculators. What do we means by these words. It sound like they are the one who always mess up the whole thing but sometimes they also can bring cheer to the market.

One thing for sure when I start to become a blogger, I was inform by some of the article saying that the recently increase in Crude Oil prices are solely because of Supply and Demand. Do you all agreed ?

I can say that I'm totally disagree with the current Crude Oil prices increase or decrease got nothing to do with the Speculators.

In the terms of Supply and Demand, no doubt it play a major indicator as to the price of increase and decrease but one thing for sure Speculators are the main culprits among all these hoo-haa in Crude Oil prices.

We have to remember that once there is a market to trade, there always be a speculators and also a Supply and Demand will be involve. How can a Crude Oil prices increase so much when the demand for it are not increasing as many as the world needed. Remember when Saudi Arabia pump in more barrels to control the prices but the prices still keep on climbing ?

Do you know that some of the article posted by some of the blogger during the Crude Oil prices increase dismissed the notion that speculators were manipulating the oil market.

Some of their article is quite nice but some of them perhaps cannot accept that in this world of finance, when there is a money involve, there always be a speculators around. No matter an old speculators or a new born speculators.

Please read this article. Cantwell blames spikes in oil prices on speculators.

The U.S. senator from Washington and Portland economist Robert McCullough analyze recent market volatility.

The last time U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell and Portland economist Robert McCullough teamed up, they helped reveal the predations of rogue electricity traders at Enron.

Now, they're taking on an even larger and more politically connected target: the oil industry.

Cantwell, D-Wash., has for months been loudly accusing speculators of driving up oil prices. On Wednesday, she presented an analysis of the oil market's recent gyrations penned by McCullough. "Every member of Congress should read this report," Cantwell said at a news conference.

McCullough found that market fundamentals fail to explain the wild price spikes and declines of recent weeks. Oil futures prices soared nearly 10 percent in June, closing at a record $142.18 a barrel on July 3. Prices then reversed, declining 17 percent by the end of July.

That kind of volatility on the short-term spot market would be unusual enough. But these were futures contract prices for delivery in 2016. Traders of oil and other commodities typically buy and sell futures contracts, which are promises to buy specific quantities at a specified time.

"There is no evidence that a significant long-term change in oil consumption or production took place in June and then faded away in July," McCullough said.

"All available evidence indicates that the price spike of July 3 was a form of market failure -- most likely due to the significant concentration in the energy sector in recent years."

McCullough didn't go as far as Cantwell in blaming speculators for the price increases, saying he lacked the data to make such a leap. But that's part of the problem, he added: There's little useful information on oil trading.

Cantwell agreed, calling for greater transparency from the industry and its regulators, particularly the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, which regulators futures trading.

Oil prices have doubled in two years, people and businesses are going bankrupt and the CFTC is sticking its head in the sand," Cantwell said. Last month, a CFTC-led task force dismissed the notion that speculators were manipulating the oil market.

Cantwell and McCullough fought for years to convince federal electricity regulators that abusive trading by Enron staffers helped create and worsen the electricity shortage that hit the Western United States in 2000 and 2001.

Since then, the commission has insisted on more disclosure by market participants and has gotten tougher on enforcement.

When this article was posted, the Crude Oil prices in NYMEX drop USD -2.04 per barrel.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Another Sell Down Next Week on Plantation Shares ?

Light, sweet crude for September delivery settled down USD -4.82 to USD 115.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest close since May 1, when oil finished at USD 112.52.

Oil has fallen more than USD -32.00, or nearly 22%, from the record high of USD 147.27 set July 11. With strong dollar, the Crude Oil prices seems to getting weaker and weaker.

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 302.89 points to 11,734.32 points yesterday.

Hope this rally will help our share market a bit but what would happen to our plantation counters ?

Usually the Crude Palm Oil prices might follow with Crude Oil prices retreat. Hence there might be another round of selling in Plantation Stocks. Some of the big Plantation counter hold a few percentage points of our KL Composite Index.

It is not easy to monitor with so many things to consider. Political situation, Crude Oil prices, Crude Palm Oil prices and a bit of our current economy in Malaysia.

But one thing for sure, I guess. AIRASIA will fly higher again. Watch for next week whether this counter might be flying higher after the overnight Crude Oil prices tumbles.

One's must be brave to make a decision as a decision will eventually make things happen.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Airlines Stock In The World Are Creating New Highs. Wah Laaaa..

A tiring day and a boring day also for our share market. I was in Thailand on my holiday trip there. Will be back on Monday.

Today Axis Incorporation Berhad rebound a bit, Resorts World Berhad create a new high but not in a strong way.

Still I can see the market with most of the counter share prices still struggling to maintain at their level but one particular counter are moving very well and is preparing to fly higher again. That is "AirAsia Berhad"

Airlines stock in most part of the world are creating new high. Although their country share market index still moving at range trading but their airlines stock are getting better and better.

On your left is Continental Airlines Inc.

It happen because investor are feeling that the world Crude Oil prices has finally on the way to reach USD 100.00 per barrel. By the time I posted this article the Crude Oil prices tumble again and created new low.

On your right is Delta Air Lines Inc Del.

It went down more than USD-4.00 per barrel at about USD 116.00 per barrel. Basically this a good news for all the major airlines stock in the world and indeed it created an oppourtunity for those still holding the shares. At this moment people who has a strong holding power will eventually gain from this weakness in Crude Oil prices.

As I can see AirAsia will definately benefiting from the current downtrend in Crude Oil prices because if the current situation still maintain AirAsia might be announcing a huge profit for its current annual reports.

On your left is US Airways Group Inc.

To try to invest in this particular counter is worth it because from the way it move, its seems to be going against the trend of our KL Composite Index movement. Potential to move up is greater for this counter but anything can happen during our country "Malaysia" still facing political unstability.

Today Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim still announcing that on Sept 16, 2008 our country might be changing to a new government.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Where The KL Composite Index Wants To Head To ?

These two days our market reaction towards the performance of Dow Jones Industrial Average and a falling Crude Oil prices is a bit dissapointed. Overall peformance from yesterday move and today suggest that the focus will be solely or entirely on the by-election at Permatang Pauh.

Election date has been set on 26th August 2008. That is more than two weeks from now. It has been expected that the case will be the same as Raja Petra Kamaruddin.

Appear in the court, pledge not guilty, asking for a trial and out from the court after paying the bail money. This time Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim being released on a personal bond of RM 20,000 without a need for a guarantor.

My advice at this moment is to stay out from this market for a while until there is a very good indicator.

Although the KL Composite Index fall from recently high of 1,164.64 (31.07.08) points until now, a check on overall shares prices suggest it still trade within the range except for the plantation counter (new lows).

From my experiance, usually any counter before they can really move up they always went down first in order to hunt for some bargain hunters and make these counter looks more attractive and then they will slowly move up like what has happen in last month trade.

Just take a look on our market where this market wants to head to because I also don't know where this market wants to head to ? For me, most likely moving to the south in near term.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Buy MMC Corporation Berhad at RM 2.12 Per Share ? Can or Not ?

Today I also don't know what happen to MMC Corporation Berhad. Why all the sudden the share prices tumble so much in one day RM-0.61 per share to close at RM 2.12 per share. This is a good counter. Usually this scenario only happen when the share market crash but today this counter crash along with some of the plantation counters.

(Source from Kenanga Research - Company Update)

Proposed to buy Senai Airport for RM1.95 billion by issuance of 696.4 million shares at RM2.80 per share and Aliran Ihsan for RM238.6 million via a VGO for all its shares and RCULS for RM0.90 each.

Both companies are linked to Tan Sri Syed Mohkthar which in turn owns Seaport Terminal (Johore) Sdn Bhd, MMC’s single largest shareholder with 51.76% stake. As such, Seaport will abstain from voting.

Very, very long term value realisation. Senai Airport is made a net loss of RM24.8 million in FYJune08 with a NTA of RM295.5 million. The company which holds the 50-year (45 years remaining) concession to Senai Airport also owns 2,718.7 acres of freehold land surrounding the airport for future development which was valued at RM2.23 billion or RM18.80 psf. Based on P/NTA, the valuation would be high at 6.6x while against land value it would be 1.14x which is reasonable but development potential would probably be achieve in 5 years at the earliest.

Aliran Ihsan operates 16 water treatment plant in Johor which produces 70% of water supply. Its 20-year concession agreements will end in 2012 and 2014. The nationalisation of water assets under SPAN may result in Aliran selling its concession assets to the government in return for an operating contract extending beyond original concession period. Acquisition price is reasonable at 0.76x P/BV and FYJune08E PER of 6.8x but may not result in full acquisition.

Aliran Ihsan fits into MMC’s regulated asset expansion overseas. Given MMC objective to expand its power generation business overseas, the expertise of Aliran Ihsan is important part of its growth strategy as most power plants in Middle East is usually combined with a desalination water treatment plant.

Earnings dilution of 13% and 14% for FY08E and FY09E EPS to 20 sen and 21 sen respectively as an additional 22.8% increase in number of shares issued. RNAV falls to RM4.38 from RM4.70. Maintain BUY. Current depressed price has already factored in impact of windfall tax.

During this article was posted the research firm call a buy at RM 2.73 per share. Now at RM 2.12 per share, is MMC Corporation Berhad still attractive ?

Any Technical Rebound for Axis Incorporation Berhad ?

Crude Palm Oil prices tumble again in the afternoon session. When the market open in the afternoon the CPO prices jump to a new low RM-190.00 per tonne at RM 2,700.00 before closing for the day at RM 2,750.00 per tonne. What a day, it was a real roller coaster ride for the trader at CPO futures.

This is how our share market will react to the current Crude Palm Oil prices. In this kind of situation, anyone who are still holding their shares in Bursa Malaysia would like dispose it out. The whole market sentiment seem to be pointing to the south. Anyone who is not strong enough would be easily wiped out from the market.

Today I will be posting one of the interesting charts that tumbles until now without gaining any gain. It is all because of a dispute amount in Submission of the Audited Financial Statments for the financial year ended 31 March 2008.

Why this kind of thing happen to our share market. Where is our accountability in our system. From as high as RM 2.00 per share (11.07.08) to a low of RM 0.26 per share (05.08.08).

Axis Incorporation Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company's wholly owned subsidiaries include Asiapin Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in fabric knitting and dyeing; Chongee Enterprise Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in manufacturing of garments, and GBC Marketing Pte. Ltd., which is engaged in the trading of textiles.

In June 2008, the Company announced the disposal of the entire equity interest in Ganad Corporation Bhd. Anyone out there who would dare to try to catch a falling sharp knife will eventually make some pocket money. DARE TO TRY ?

Axis Issued and Paid-Up Capital : RM 152,906,719.00
Class of Shares : Ordinary Shares of RM 1.00 each