Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Quiet Market Ahead For The World Equities Market ????

Dow Jones Industrial Average is not doing well at this moment. Malaysia share market is not moving anywhere also. Shanghai Stock Exchange drop sharply yesterday -4.3%. Current sentiment is telling us that we still have to wait for more stability in the overall world equities market.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing more weaknesses rather than healthier sign, we should be staying out for a while and watch how our share market is going to react against current situation.

With the on going 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa, sentiment still looks a bit quiet with most of the share market player still pay more attention towards this world prestigious football. Everyone is talking about football but less people are talking about share market.

Right now I don't have any comments towards the FBM-KLCI movement because I didn't foreseen any interesting indicator that will lead the share market to move higher but if we take a look for the past 2 to 3 weeks share market movement, we can notice that the share market has been moving up for quiet some time. Maybe it is time for them to take a pause .....

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Thursday's Sell-Off: Bad News for Bulls - Dow Jones Industrial Average

After some constructive base building the last couple of weeks, the market failed an important test at its 50 day moving average. Unfortunately the market also failed at its 50 day moving averages back in mid May, setting up a test of the February lows. Since that rebuff, all three of the major indices have fallen below their 200 day moving averages, signaling a change in control from the bulls back to the bears.

It is a widely held notion that previous support becomes resistance. Last week the 200 day moving averages acted as a floor for the markets. Now it is likely that those averages will act as a ceiling that will be difficult for the markets to go above.

Obviously the 50 day moving averages have been impenetrable the last couple of months as well. Last Monday’s price action, when the bulls failed to seize the opportunity to rise above their 50 day moving averages on the heels of the most positive news of the month, raised the warning flags.

Both technical and fundamental analysis demonstrates a market rally that is broken and the odds now favor another retest of the S&P 1040 level. With the 50 day moving in the direction of forming a death cross under the 200 day moving average on all the major indices, it is quite possible that the markets will decline back down to 1040 and 2139 for the S&P and NASDAQ respectively. Should those levels be breached, a plunge down to 875 – 950 on the S&P witnessed last June and July, will most likely be targeted.

With the price of gold touching an all time high of $1260 per ounce in the past week, it is another of those flashing red lights that says all is not well with our economy. There is much discussion whether this price rise is signaling inflation or that global fiat currencies are collapsing, or perhaps a combination of both events. It must be stated that the price of gold has quadrupled over the past ten years, while the S&P 500 has remained basically flat.

Recall that one is just metal removed from the earth and the other is a reflection of the aggregate value of the largest 500 companies (employers) in America. This has created one of the most difficult investment environments witnessed in several generations.

Much of the economic data recently has been negative. The housing and mortgage figures appear to be predicting another leg down for real estate. The jobs picture is not improving either. This is not an environment where one should expect to be able to buy and hold. While I remain long term optimistic, in the short run there are too many obstacles that could result in a significant price decline to ignore. We remain in a short term complicated trading environment for now.

Article from Seeking Alpha

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

1,300 Points Still Stand As The Main Support For FBM-KLCI.

Waalahhh ...... the world equities market are moving higher and higher. I was in China for about a week and I don't have the opportunity to monitor the overall Malaysian share market movement.

Looking at recently huge movement, I was wondering whether the Malaysian share market was able to penetrate their strongest resistance level at 1,350 points. At these moments we might see some profit taking activities after recently upwards movement.

Overall volume or turnover done still didn't support that the bulls are coming but the good thing is the FBM-KLCI was able to stay above the 1,300 points. As long as this level was not broken then we might have some opportunity to search for any good counters to invest.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Can The Dow Jones Industrial Average Move Higher ?

The World Cup has just started. Just a very good weekend to watch some of these good games. At these moments the World Cup games is going on now, can we start to accumulate right now or stay at the sideline? For me I will prefer another week or two to determine whether it is a good time to go in or not.

Well let us see how our share market will fares this week? Basically if we take a look on the condition of the share market right now, they seem to be moving quite fairly. Move up bit by bit but lack of volumes to support their movement.

Looking at the FBM-KLCI, the index is touching at their resistance level, so we have to take a look on how the index is going to move this week. Whether they can move higher or make a consolidation move, it is important to monitor the index closely?

Without the volume to support the overall market turnover, we need more time to watch and to determine whether the share market can really sustain their movement right now? Judging from the overall performance of the world equities market movement, they look a bit stable but the European region financial crisis still far from over.

We have to be careful all the time. Lately there is an article who outline a few reasons why the Dow could charge higher and once again approach the level where the Dow started out 2010 (click to read). Whether this statement can be use as a guidance for us to trade, we have to judge it accordingly. For overall world equities performance, I still prefer the Dow Jones Industrial Average to perform in order for the share market to move higher.
++ Will not be around - went to China on 13th June ++

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Accumulate During World Cup Games Going On????

2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa is going to start tomorrow. I think we will be very busy watching Live World Cup matches every night. The games will run for a month but the world equities market might be experiencing some quite movement ahead. Maybe some consolidation moves.

Based on previous historical data - Sell Before World Cup Start, Accumulate During The World Cup Games Going On and Hold After The World Cup End. Can we use this statement to determine whether there would be an opportunity? We have judge it nicely. For me I have no idea at all ......

Basically we have to look on the overall basis on what had happened to the world equities market right now. Was it stable enough for us to go in? At these moments it is quite hard to determine whether it was a right time to accumulate when the World Cup started.

Financial crisis in the European region still look shaky. If we are not careful enough, we might get burn as well. For the FBM-KLCI movement, I don't have any comments on it because their movements didn't really picture the whole sentiments.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Malaysia Flag Was Raising Half Pole And Upside Down?

This is very bad. What has happened anyway? This picture was taken on 5th June, 2010 during the Birthday of Seri Paduka Baginda Yang Di-Pertuan Agong. What a shocking!!!

As we can see the flag was raise at half pole only and it was upside down. Being a collation of the Selangor state government (Pakatan Rakyat), it is an unacceptable way to respect our country.

As a service center for a town called "Pandamaran" putting up a flag upside down is showing that they didn't respect their country at all. As a representative and a Adun or Yang Berhormat he should have taken notice on that matters. This is embarrassing.

I still can remember when there was a blogger by the name of KICKdeFELLA. He was been jailed for few days for putting up the Malaysian flag upside down. He spent 4 days and 3 nights inside the jail.

Why was he being jailed ??? Here are some of his article that appear in his blog.

Nation In Distress (Article appear on August 2008)

Dear proud Malaysians,

No way we are going to raise the white flag, which is the symbol of surrender. We are raising our flag upside down because it is a sign of our nation is in distress.

It is not UMNO or BN who are in distress. UMNO is as bubbly as ever doing what ever their leaders know best for the country and BN as happy as ever playing supporting role to those UMNO leaders.

It is not the opposition parties who are in distress, they never been in a better state than they are now, governing five states and denying a two-third majority for BN in the Dewan Rakyat for the first time.

But it is the nation who is in distress. We are facing economic uncertainty and the citizens are facing all sorts of difficulties facing it. We are losing our competitive edge and we are losing our territories too.

It is sad to see our beloved Jalur Gemilang, the symbol of our Nation and its sovereignty flying upside down. I had anticipated the anger by my fellow countrymen watching our flag being raised upside down. It is internationally accepted that raising the flag upside down is a mark of state of distress. It is never a mark of disrespect.

I hope we can sway all the anger into trying to turn the situation so we can see our Jalur Gemilang flying high in the right way again.

But until we can do something about it, the reality is, our nation is in disarray. Let us not live in hypocrisy. Let us stare at the upside down Jalur Gemilang and let the reality strike us once and for all. If we do not join hand in hand in trying to make the politicians understand how we feel then how on earth can we blame them for saying they are doing what they think is best for us and the nation.

I do not ask you to take your protest to the street, I do not ask you to let your frustration kills the nation, I do not ask you to unleash you anger so it can burn down any chance of unification. But I beg you not to wait until we have to raise the white flag for our survival.

"Biar Putih Tulang, Jangan Putih Mata”.

Again I repeat, if you have a reason to disagree with the manner the country is heading, then you have a cause.

Raise your flag upside down and let those who can make the different know that this nation is indeed in distress.

However, you may not have the reason to listen to me, so why not you listen to what other fellow Malaysian has to say,

Hungary - Second Wave Of Financial Crisis Have Just Started ?

Last Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles -323.31 points to close at 9,931.97 points. Looking at the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it looks quite dangerous at these moments. With the on going financial crisis already hitting the European region and all the sudden Hungary also facing the same crisis, well it seems that the second wave has just begun.

Last week, fears that the debt crisis could migrate to central Europe were stirred Friday after a senior Hungarian government official said the previous government had manipulated budget figures and lied about the state of the economy.

Hungary is among the countries in Eastern Europe hardest hit by the international financial crisis. In late 2008 it was forced to approach the International Monetary Fund for $25 billion in emergency financing

Well what really happens in Hungary was a domino effect around that region. If this statement by one of its senior Hungarian government official was true, the domino effect will keep on continue towards other country.

With this kind of situation, what should we do right now? Just monitor how the European equities and the DJIA performance. They are going to decide how the global equities market going to perform.

This week should be a week for us to cool down and relax. Watch 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa and monitor how our Malaysian shares market reaction towards the world equities performance. Right now I have no comments on our Malaysian share market performance as we all can see last week was a technical rebound. Selling on the run was a right decision after all. This week we will monitor the momentum of the FBM-KLCI.

Right now I will be waiting for any opportunity arises. In a downtrend market you tend to lose more rather you can win a lot. So keeping more bullets is much more better as we can shoot anytime when the opportunity arise.

Anyway just watch this video clip to make our self relax and I will guarantee you that you will laugh all the way ......... but ....sorry it was in Malay languages. The title of this video clip called " DUIT KECIL ". Any comments on this video clip .... please give a comment ....

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Any More Rooms For FBM-KLCI To Move Towards South Pole?

Looking at current condition right now, where our Malaysian share market is heading right now? Frankly from this stage I have no idea where the share market is going to head to? If we take a look on the chart, we still have more rooms to head further to the South. How far the South Pole will be? I think it is better for us to be a trend follower rather than become a trend predictor.

When the bandwagon is coming down from the hill, we just have to follow. The whole scenario and the momentum at these moments didn't favour us at all. If we take a look on the FBM-KLCI chart: since March 2009 when the index touches the low of 836.51 points and climb all the way to create new high at 1,349.92 points in the early May, our index has gone up about 513.41 point (has gone up about 14 months).

At 1,280 points, our index just down about -65 points from its previous high. Can we consider that the FBM-KLCI has already finished its correction? We just have to wait and see how the FMB-KLCI is going to makes its move. World equities market still looks unstable and it is still not safe to make any wise decision to hold or to speculate at these moments.