Sunday, November 29, 2009

Dubai World Crisis ? The beginning of a DOWNTREND ?

For the whole last week trading and before any announcement that Dubai World is facing a financial difficulty, our Malaysian share market has started to move down. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average manages to create new high but our share market (most of counters) is moving against the real trend.

From here we can see that the share market is getting weaker and weaker and if we check most of charts, what we can see is most the counters are moving slowly towards south and it is very bad. Not only they are moving towards downwards but they also created new low.

Dubai World crisis maybe the beginning of world financial crisis. But still we don't know the level of the damages might hit these regional markets. It is still too early to tell but this crisis might be the turning point or an excuse for the world equities market to move down after been moving up since the beginning of March 2009 until down. It might be the beginning of a downtrend.

Right now 1,230 points will be the next supporting level for FBM-KLCI. If this level been taken out then we would have to wait at the next supporting level at 1,200 points. If 1,200 points also been taken out, then we would have a new beginning of a downtrend.

These few days we might have some mild technical rebound as the prices have been moving down for quite some days already. Just watch out for any opportunity to occour. We might gain something from this technical rebound. Right now it is not a good time to buy for long.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Dow Jones Industrial Average Has Reaches Its Hurdle Points ?

Like it or not. Our Malaysian share market just like a dead fish. Nothing really interesting except certain counters that is moving. Dow Jones Industrial Average is creating new high with our FBM-KLCI also does the same but overall market still below most of the player expectation. Nothing interesting to write about.

Maxis Berhad is listed today with an opening price of RM5.46. Quite a good price and most of punters or investors are paying attention towards this counter.

From here what we can see the overall market didn't perform accordingly to the new high created by FBM-KLCI. Overall the world equities market looks a bit tired. It seems that they are moving side ways with most of the indicators staying neutral.

But one thing for sure the Malaysian share market still looks quite OK with nothing to worry about at these moments. Basically our share market will still follow our Big Brother indicators (DJIA) and their performances. But their indicators show more divergence sign and it is not a very good sign. Even there is a divergence sign, their share market still manage to push higher as there is no bad news that can bring down the DJIA. From the charts wise it seems that they have reached their hurdle point. Just be cautious when we trade at these moments.

I did went around and ask few of my friends about their recently involvment in trading in Bursa Malaysia counters. They mention to me, it is not easy to make money. One day you might make some profit but on the next day you will lose back. Some even can't make a profit at all.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

The Parallel Economy

Last week, we heard news that Robert Kuok, the richest Malaysian has sold his business interests in 2 sugar manufacturing and cultivating companies. He is selling to FELDA Global Ventures SB, which is wholly owned by FELDA. The price was said to be RM1.29 billion.

Robert Kuok is selling his 36.36 million shares in Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Co Bhd (MSM) and also selling 6 million shares in Kilang Gula FELDA Perlis SB also to FGV for RM26.31 million. That makes FELDA the biggest sugar manufacturer and supplier.

Robert Kuok is also selling his 49% interests in Grenfell Holdings SB to Tradewinds which is controlled by Tan Sri Syed Moktar Al Bukhary.

The sale of Robert Kuok's business interests in sugar has raised some discomfiture and uneasiness. FELDA is seen as a Malay dominated GLC and Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar is a Bumiputera tycoon of Arab descent. It is spooking many other Chinese business interests into believing they may be next in line for takeovers or forced to sell their interests.

Robert Kouk and his business advisers must have done their arithmetic. The selling price incorporates a premium that reflects maybe 15 years advanced profits. Imagine with this cash pile, he reinvests in China where he has extensive business interests. He may be able to get better returns there.

We are waiting for more revelations about this business deal. At the moment, we are interested in erasing the uneasiness which accompanied the sale. I am saying this uneasiness is largely unfounded. There may be justifiable reasons for the sale and purchase and that Robert Kuok's exit from the sugar business need not be generalized into a thinking that the government, is going after Chinese business interests.

Just as a point of debate, why should the Chinese business people be uneasy? They have had monopolies in many businesses for a long time that were not subject to Malay envy. Robert Kuok for example enjoyed a monopoly over sugar business for maybe more than 50 years without raising uneasiness and insecurity in Malay minds.

There is no cause for worries. The Chinese are a resilient lot who can overcome any 'administrative' and corporate actions which a Malay dominated government can muster. They are basically untouched by economic regulations.

I have been in Kuala Lumpur for almost a month visiting and observing the Chinese economy practiced in places like Old Klang Road and Balakong. I have come away concluding that the Malaysian Chinese is actually operating a parallel economy more vibrant than the official national economy. Those people behind Pearl Point, Wisma Shun Li and the ubiquitous manufacturing and trading establishments in Old Klang Road and Balakong are never in need of government assistance.

They have the best form of independence which is beyond the comprehension of the shrillest and bellicose of Malay voices – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE. What they value most is de -regulation. As long as they are permitted to do whatever they want to economically, the economic future of the Chinese lies in fact, in their own hands. Furthermore, 'permissibility' is a buyable commodity even from the hands of recalcitrant Malay nationalists.

Unfortunately, that cannot be said of the Malay economy which so far can only substantially exists in the form of GLCs.

Sakmongkol AK47 is the nom de plume of this blogger. His name is Mohd Ariff Sabri bin Hj. Abdul Aziz. He was ADUN of Pulau Manis, Pekan.(2004-2008)

Monday, November 16, 2009


The clear and present danger.

If the Doomsday prediction never comes true, New Zealand will remain as picturesque after a hundred years, with cows and goats roaming all over the country sparesely populated by humans.

A hundred years later, Singapore 's foundation will remain rock solid. The tiny city-state will continue to lure new immigrants, and many new-generation Singaporeans will see their lineages traced back to those of migrants.

How about Malaysia a hundred years from now? Lee Kuan Yew did not seem to see things that far. He only set his sight 20 years later. He said all constituencies in Malaysia would be dominated by the Malays in 20 years' time, and the leadership in this country would value the Chinese population less and less.

The Chinese population would continue to slide, he added, not because of the pathetically low fertility rates among the Chinese in this country, but because those who could afford would have sent their children overseas, who would decide not to come back.

"And those migrating to Malaysia will be from Islamic states, making the country's Islamisation inclination more and more pronounced." Statistics don't lie, and the current political and social ecosystems are not here without a reason. MM Lee's predictions are by no means novel. But his well-thought remarks have touched the hearts of many a Malaysian.

If this is what the country should look like 20 years from now, we can imagine Chinese Malaysians to be like apes in a forest sanctuary a hundred years down the road, where we need to sharpen our eyesight to carefully scan through the entire swathe of forest before we can catch a glimpse of one or two of them.

That comparison is, most certainly, exaggerated, but I really hope we will not be reduced to a rare species by then.

The ratio of Chinese population in this country has been on steady decline over the decades; so has their political status here. Very soon, they will be completely engulfed by the powerful waves of aggressive Islamisation.

This is the pessimistic side of the outlook of their destiny. But Chinese Malaysians cannot afford to go on this way, and wait helplessly for such a destiny to befall them. They have to take the initiative to accentuate their own strengths and be in firm control of their own fates before they can divert such a predestination.

The next ten years will be key to the future destiny of Chinese Malaysians. If the country's policies get more and more ethnically-oriented and religiously inclined, the future of Chinese community is well within our imagination, and Chinese Malaysians will exit the country in droves.

On the other hand, if community-centric ideologies get diluted, conflicts between mainstream and minority races get thinned down, the common Malaysian identity gets consolidated, and the spirit of secularity stays very much relevant, then Chinese Malaysians will have a much more promising future here.

So will Malaysia . Whatever happens to this country or our society, the most important element for new-generation Chinese to secure a place in this land, will be their very own competitiveness.

In this age of globalisation, when national boundaries are increasingly obscured, people will find a greener pasture beyond our shores if our internal conditions remain this bleak. We cannot afford to talk about what will happen to us a hundred years from now. We need to buck up and fight for our near-term opportunities.

Meaningless and unnecessary squabbles, like the one currently taking place within MCA, will only serve to bog down the pace of the Chinese community further, blurring their vision of the clear and present danger. What the Chinese community urgently needs right now is high-calibre and farsighted leadership, not one engrossed with endless infighting.

(By TAY TIAN YAN/Translated by DOMINIC LOH/Sin Chew Daily)

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Same Old Days .....Up And Down .... Not Moving Anywhere.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. It has been four days and our Malaysian share market still maintains its position quite well. We have some rotational play among some of the shares. But one needs to be very good in order to strike a jackpot. If we really look closely at the share market movement, we have some opportunity but not every counter is moving.

Now we need to ask among ourselves a very big QUESTION, whether we still have some opportunity in this share market? Looking at their movement couple with the volume done, our share market still needs more energy or some extra ordinary news to push them up. But it seems that our share market is lack of vitamin and they are not really moving at all. They are just moving side ways. Sometimes they went up and on the next day they will move down.

I really like to think positively on our share market but with the current share market condition right now, sometimes we can turn into a bit negative, it is just that we as a chartists sometimes need to follow some of the rules that has been set in. Right now I'm still watching how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to perform these few days because they are the one who is going to determine whether there are still some hopes for our world equities markets.

But if we take a closer look on the charts ........ they still didn't show any positive sign but rather a bit negative. In order to make sure that the DJIA trend still intact, they must not breach the 9,430 points level. If the level of 9,430 points has been taken out, then the whole uptrend will just be over.