Towards 2010 New Year Celebration, Time To Accumulate ?

Looking at the current share market movement, we can assume that the Malaysian share market is consolidating. At these moments, we have no interesting subject to discuss about our FBM-KLCI movement. But I still consider our FBM-KLCI still staying quite high at current level with no much correction for the FBM-KLCI.

As we can see from the chart wise, the FBM-KLCI is moving toward side way. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) still staying beyond reasonable level, there is nothing to worry at these moments.

But a closer look at the DJIA chart suggest that this week the DJIA must go higher or created new high with strong volume in order for the current up-trend still intact. With so many investors still on holiday mood couple with the 2010 New Year celebration, we can expect that there won't be so much volume done.

The FBM-KLCI will also face the same scenario with lower volume or turnover done for overall market. This might be a good opportunity to look for good counters as we can see there are so many counters right at these moments staying quite low. Usually towards year end, accumulate some these shares at this moment will bear more chances to gain profit before Chinese New Year celebration set in.

Share Prices Perform Badly ..... Quiet Market Ahead ?

It has been a week I didn't post anything inside my blog. Well I was in Guangzhou, China on a business trip to study and to analyze the investment opportunity in China seafood industry. Well it was a successful trip for me as I have the opportunity to get closer to know more about the China seafood industry closer.

For a minimum investment of RM10,080.00, we will have a return of about RM18,800.00 in two years time. Very good business trips over there where by we would be able to make another extra 80% return from our initial investment of RM10,080.00. The whole business module there is about a new technology to bread Crabs. A new system called Intergrated Crab System (ICS) and was located at Sepang, Selangor.

FBM-KLCI Performance

Let us take a look at the FBM-KLCI performance form last week until now. Basically looking at the chart, there is nothing for us to worry about the performance of FBM-KLCI but we must be well aware although the FBM-KLCI still look good at this moment, share prices for most of the counters are performing quite bad.

With many of them (share prices) inches slowly bit by bit towards the South Pole, it is quite impossible to buy any of these counters as we don't know how low they can go?

For the past one week I have been looking for opportunity to read and to study the next direction of our FBM-KLCI is heading to? But yet, it is not easy to determine where the FBM-KLCI is heading to as our market performance still has been supported by the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Basically if we want to compare and analyze the movement of the FBM-KLCI when the New Year is coming, one has to know that the FBM-KLCI will perform quite dull with no interest or any big participation from big investors or players. They will move quietly and started to show some positive sign once after the New Years arrive or maybe we will have a Chinese New Year rally.

Current market suggested that the share market is going through a consolidation movement and we might have an opportunity to collect at the end of the year but timing is quite important in order for us to make some small profit. If we buy it too early, we might lost the great opportunity but if we didn't trade it carefully enough, we might get burn.

A Quiet Market Ahead For FBM-KLCI ?

As we can see there is nothing much we can talk about on our Malaysia share market performance. It is just like the same old story and the same old days. The share movement was stagnant with not much interest or involvement from the big players. We can see some rotational play but chances to make some profit out of it, is very slim.

Dow Jones Industrial Average still moving side way with the index still hovering around 10,250 points to 10,550 points. Nothing much also we can suggest where the DJIA is going to make its next move.

Currently looking at total overall charts on Malaysia equities market suggest that the trend is getting weaker and weaker and some even move slowly towards south pole. It seems that our market need to have a very good sharp drop in order to have or to build some solid base for the whole market to build up a new rally but in order for this happen, it would still take some time for the share market to experience this kind of situation.

Whether it can happen or not, it is quite hard to say at this moment and looking at the year of 2009 is going to end, we might be seeing a quiet market ahead. Maybe after new year we might have a new Chinese New Year Rally. Who knows ..... anything can happen.

What Is Dubai And Who Runs It ?

Dubai's government could soon be bankrupt if it does not receive support. The glittering city in the desert has gone from the pinnacle of the world economic boom to the brink of bankruptcy. Christopher Davidson of Durham University explains some of the background.

The inability of the government of Dubai to refinance the massive debts incurred by its largest state-owned company, Dubai World, has sent shockwaves throughout the world prompting many observers to ask not only how severe the economic crisis is, but also what exactly is Dubai and who is in control of it?

What went wrong in Dubai.

Dubai does not have the enormous oil wealth enjoyed by its neighbours such as Abu Dhabi. Its main source of wealth has historically been as a port. In recent years it has sought to make money from property development and luxury tourism, building impressive hotels such as the Burj al-Arab.

The global downturn left many financial workers unemployed. The population fell an estimated 17%, meaning there was little demand for new properties.

There was also less demand for luxury holidays. Dubai companies have borrowed money to fund huge building projects such as "The World" and are now unable to repay it.

There are jitters on financial markets about who lent all the money. European banks are estimated to have lent more than £50bn to the whole of the United Arab Emirates.

Dubai state-backed companies may also have to sell-off some of their assets overseas such as luxury property in London and the Turnberry golf course in Scotland.

Although frequently described as a city state or even as a country in its own right, Dubai is a constituent member of the federation of United Arab Emirates along with six other emirates.

Only one of these, Abu Dhabi, possesses substantial oil reserves, and as such it has dominated most areas of federal politics - including foreign affairs and defence - since the UAE was formed following Britain's withdrawal from the Persian Gulf in 1971.

Control.

Dubai, however, has always maintained an air of autonomy within the federation as a result of its long history as a successful free port. When the UAE constitution was drafted this relative independence was taken into account as each emirate was allowed to retain control over its own natural resources and economic development path. Gradually Dubai did allow itself to integrate more fully into the UAE, finally handing over its militia - the Dubai Defence Force - in 1996.

But this move was interpreted at the time as a means of transferring costly services to the federal government so as to allow Dubai to pursue its economic ambitions. With little oil, Dubai's only hope of maintaining a distinct identity from Abu Dhabi was to diversify at a fast pace, building up various non-oil sectors such as luxury tourism and real estate.

Overextended.

On paper it was succeeding, as by 2008 over 95% of its GDP was made up by such sectors. But with the onset of the credit crunch much of this success began to come undone as foreign direct investment and appetite for these activities faded.

Dubai had also badly overextended itself with most of its mega projects - including giant manmade islands - being financed by large debts. With most of these needing to be refinanced in the near future, the emirate's government spent most of 2009 trying to attract international creditors but was largely unsuccessful.

With Abu Dhabi providing some limited financial assistance, both in February 2009 and earlier this week, Dubai managed to keep afloat. But with Abu Dhabi's clear unwillingness to completely bail out Dubai, much attention has been placed on the relationship between the two emirates, especially since the recent default. If Abu Dhabi does not provide more help, then the government of Dubai will soon be bankrupt.

Competition.

Although the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, recently told journalists to "shut up" and stop referring to Dubai and Abu Dhabi as being separate, and although the Al Maktoum family is of the same tribe as Abu Dhabi's ruling Al Nahyan family - the Bani Yas - the two dynasties nonetheless have a long history of rivalry.

In 1833, Dubai broke away from Abu Dhabi and had to rely on British protection. Even in the 1940s, there was armed conflict between the two neighbours.

More recently, there has been intense competition, including each establishing its own 'national airline' despite obvious overlaps.

As such, further assistance from Abu Dhabi is far from guaranteed. Beyond the government and the ruling family there will also be a broader impact of the crisis in Dubai.

Thousands of migrant workers, mostly from South Asia, are already stranded in the emirate, and there are likely to be more over the coming weeks as more companies cease their operations or face cutbacks. These men will have difficulty returning home.

Similarly many other expatriates, some of them Westerners, will also lose their jobs, and the many foreigners who invested in the emirate's much vaunted real estate sector may see substantial losses on the properties they purchased as investments, retirement homes, or holiday villas.

Christopher Davidson is the author of Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success

Dubai World Crisis ? The beginning of a DOWNTREND ?

For the whole last week trading and before any announcement that Dubai World is facing a financial difficulty, our Malaysian share market has started to move down. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average manages to create new high but our share market (most of counters) is moving against the real trend.

From here we can see that the share market is getting weaker and weaker and if we check most of charts, what we can see is most the counters are moving slowly towards south and it is very bad. Not only they are moving towards downwards but they also created new low.

Dubai World crisis maybe the beginning of world financial crisis. But still we don't know the level of the damages might hit these regional markets. It is still too early to tell but this crisis might be the turning point or an excuse for the world equities market to move down after been moving up since the beginning of March 2009 until down. It might be the beginning of a downtrend.

Right now 1,230 points will be the next supporting level for FBM-KLCI. If this level been taken out then we would have to wait at the next supporting level at 1,200 points. If 1,200 points also been taken out, then we would have a new beginning of a downtrend.

These few days we might have some mild technical rebound as the prices have been moving down for quite some days already. Just watch out for any opportunity to occour. We might gain something from this technical rebound. Right now it is not a good time to buy for long.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Has Reaches Its Hurdle Points ?

Like it or not. Our Malaysian share market just like a dead fish. Nothing really interesting except certain counters that is moving. Dow Jones Industrial Average is creating new high with our FBM-KLCI also does the same but overall market still below most of the player expectation. Nothing interesting to write about.

Maxis Berhad is listed today with an opening price of RM5.46. Quite a good price and most of punters or investors are paying attention towards this counter.

From here what we can see the overall market didn't perform accordingly to the new high created by FBM-KLCI. Overall the world equities market looks a bit tired. It seems that they are moving side ways with most of the indicators staying neutral.

But one thing for sure the Malaysian share market still looks quite OK with nothing to worry about at these moments. Basically our share market will still follow our Big Brother indicators (DJIA) and their performances. But their indicators show more divergence sign and it is not a very good sign. Even there is a divergence sign, their share market still manage to push higher as there is no bad news that can bring down the DJIA. From the charts wise it seems that they have reached their hurdle point. Just be cautious when we trade at these moments.

I did went around and ask few of my friends about their recently involvment in trading in Bursa Malaysia counters. They mention to me, it is not easy to make money. One day you might make some profit but on the next day you will lose back. Some even can't make a profit at all.

The Parallel Economy

Last week, we heard news that Robert Kuok, the richest Malaysian has sold his business interests in 2 sugar manufacturing and cultivating companies. He is selling to FELDA Global Ventures SB, which is wholly owned by FELDA. The price was said to be RM1.29 billion.

Robert Kuok is selling his 36.36 million shares in Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Co Bhd (MSM) and also selling 6 million shares in Kilang Gula FELDA Perlis SB also to FGV for RM26.31 million. That makes FELDA the biggest sugar manufacturer and supplier.

Robert Kuok is also selling his 49% interests in Grenfell Holdings SB to Tradewinds which is controlled by Tan Sri Syed Moktar Al Bukhary.

The sale of Robert Kuok's business interests in sugar has raised some discomfiture and uneasiness. FELDA is seen as a Malay dominated GLC and Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar is a Bumiputera tycoon of Arab descent. It is spooking many other Chinese business interests into believing they may be next in line for takeovers or forced to sell their interests.

Robert Kouk and his business advisers must have done their arithmetic. The selling price incorporates a premium that reflects maybe 15 years advanced profits. Imagine with this cash pile, he reinvests in China where he has extensive business interests. He may be able to get better returns there.

We are waiting for more revelations about this business deal. At the moment, we are interested in erasing the uneasiness which accompanied the sale. I am saying this uneasiness is largely unfounded. There may be justifiable reasons for the sale and purchase and that Robert Kuok's exit from the sugar business need not be generalized into a thinking that the government, is going after Chinese business interests.

Just as a point of debate, why should the Chinese business people be uneasy? They have had monopolies in many businesses for a long time that were not subject to Malay envy. Robert Kuok for example enjoyed a monopoly over sugar business for maybe more than 50 years without raising uneasiness and insecurity in Malay minds.

There is no cause for worries. The Chinese are a resilient lot who can overcome any 'administrative' and corporate actions which a Malay dominated government can muster. They are basically untouched by economic regulations.

I have been in Kuala Lumpur for almost a month visiting and observing the Chinese economy practiced in places like Old Klang Road and Balakong. I have come away concluding that the Malaysian Chinese is actually operating a parallel economy more vibrant than the official national economy. Those people behind Pearl Point, Wisma Shun Li and the ubiquitous manufacturing and trading establishments in Old Klang Road and Balakong are never in need of government assistance.

They have the best form of independence which is beyond the comprehension of the shrillest and bellicose of Malay voices – FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE. What they value most is de -regulation. As long as they are permitted to do whatever they want to economically, the economic future of the Chinese lies in fact, in their own hands. Furthermore, 'permissibility' is a buyable commodity even from the hands of recalcitrant Malay nationalists.

Unfortunately, that cannot be said of the Malay economy which so far can only substantially exists in the form of GLCs.

Sakmongkol AK47 is the nom de plume of this blogger. His name is Mohd Ariff Sabri bin Hj. Abdul Aziz. He was ADUN of Pulau Manis, Pekan.(2004-2008)

http://sakmongkol.blogspot.com/2009/11/parallel-economy.html

HOW MR. LEE KUAN YEW SEES MALAYSIA IN 20 YEARS' TIME

The clear and present danger.

If the Doomsday prediction never comes true, New Zealand will remain as picturesque after a hundred years, with cows and goats roaming all over the country sparesely populated by humans.

A hundred years later, Singapore 's foundation will remain rock solid. The tiny city-state will continue to lure new immigrants, and many new-generation Singaporeans will see their lineages traced back to those of migrants.

How about Malaysia a hundred years from now? Lee Kuan Yew did not seem to see things that far. He only set his sight 20 years later. He said all constituencies in Malaysia would be dominated by the Malays in 20 years' time, and the leadership in this country would value the Chinese population less and less.

The Chinese population would continue to slide, he added, not because of the pathetically low fertility rates among the Chinese in this country, but because those who could afford would have sent their children overseas, who would decide not to come back.

"And those migrating to Malaysia will be from Islamic states, making the country's Islamisation inclination more and more pronounced." Statistics don't lie, and the current political and social ecosystems are not here without a reason. MM Lee's predictions are by no means novel. But his well-thought remarks have touched the hearts of many a Malaysian.

If this is what the country should look like 20 years from now, we can imagine Chinese Malaysians to be like apes in a forest sanctuary a hundred years down the road, where we need to sharpen our eyesight to carefully scan through the entire swathe of forest before we can catch a glimpse of one or two of them.

That comparison is, most certainly, exaggerated, but I really hope we will not be reduced to a rare species by then.

The ratio of Chinese population in this country has been on steady decline over the decades; so has their political status here. Very soon, they will be completely engulfed by the powerful waves of aggressive Islamisation.

This is the pessimistic side of the outlook of their destiny. But Chinese Malaysians cannot afford to go on this way, and wait helplessly for such a destiny to befall them. They have to take the initiative to accentuate their own strengths and be in firm control of their own fates before they can divert such a predestination.

The next ten years will be key to the future destiny of Chinese Malaysians. If the country's policies get more and more ethnically-oriented and religiously inclined, the future of Chinese community is well within our imagination, and Chinese Malaysians will exit the country in droves.

On the other hand, if community-centric ideologies get diluted, conflicts between mainstream and minority races get thinned down, the common Malaysian identity gets consolidated, and the spirit of secularity stays very much relevant, then Chinese Malaysians will have a much more promising future here.

So will Malaysia . Whatever happens to this country or our society, the most important element for new-generation Chinese to secure a place in this land, will be their very own competitiveness.

In this age of globalisation, when national boundaries are increasingly obscured, people will find a greener pasture beyond our shores if our internal conditions remain this bleak. We cannot afford to talk about what will happen to us a hundred years from now. We need to buck up and fight for our near-term opportunities.

Meaningless and unnecessary squabbles, like the one currently taking place within MCA, will only serve to bog down the pace of the Chinese community further, blurring their vision of the clear and present danger. What the Chinese community urgently needs right now is high-calibre and farsighted leadership, not one engrossed with endless infighting.

(By TAY TIAN YAN/Translated by DOMINIC LOH/Sin Chew Daily)

Same Old Days .....Up And Down .... Not Moving Anywhere.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. It has been four days and our Malaysian share market still maintains its position quite well. We have some rotational play among some of the shares. But one needs to be very good in order to strike a jackpot. If we really look closely at the share market movement, we have some opportunity but not every counter is moving.

Now we need to ask among ourselves a very big QUESTION, whether we still have some opportunity in this share market? Looking at their movement couple with the volume done, our share market still needs more energy or some extra ordinary news to push them up. But it seems that our share market is lack of vitamin and they are not really moving at all. They are just moving side ways. Sometimes they went up and on the next day they will move down.

I really like to think positively on our share market but with the current share market condition right now, sometimes we can turn into a bit negative, it is just that we as a chartists sometimes need to follow some of the rules that has been set in. Right now I'm still watching how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to perform these few days because they are the one who is going to determine whether there are still some hopes for our world equities markets.

But if we take a closer look on the charts ........ they still didn't show any positive sign but rather a bit negative. In order to make sure that the DJIA trend still intact, they must not breach the 9,430 points level. If the level of 9,430 points has been taken out, then the whole uptrend will just be over.

FBM-KLCI - A Bit Bearish. Waiting for DJIA Indicators ?

FBM-KLCI - Breaks it Major Supporting Lines. With the major supporting lines being breaks, it is quite bearish right now for the whole sentiment. Yesterday prices still look bit stable although we have some small selling activities in the morning session. A technical rebound might be just round the corner.

But if we examine the share market movement especially the FBM-KLCI, most of the time they were traded accordingly to the Dow Jones Industrial Average movement.

Right now the DJIA play an important role to determine whether our share market still have more spaces to hang on at the current level. A break of below 1,200 points will confirm that the current trend has turn to bearish sign. However at current level and with most of the indicators turning south, it is quite important to stay out or to reduce our exposure in order to safe guard our investment.

Very Bad Sign From Dow Jones Industrial Average ?

I'm back after having my holiday for about one week in Thailand. During last Sunday when I look through all the indicators and review most of the charts moving pattern, it is obvious that the share market is losing its momemtum and some of them even moving down and created new low.

If we take a closer look, it is not worth it to get involve as the FBM-KLCI might be heading for a correction or profit taking. We have to be careful on this matter.

An updated on the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart also suggested that the DJIA is heading for profit taking or maybe a correction as the indicator - Parabolic SAR is showing some selling signal sign.

What we can see from here is; the FBM-KLCI might be heading for a real correction. It is still early to mention what would happen as most of the counters might have some technical rebounds after slowly moving down bit by bit.

Tomorrow we will review what is happen to the FBM-KLCI chart? Form my point of views, it seems that FBM-KLCI also appear to have an indicator of Parabolic SAR selling signal coming out.

So it is quite important also to look on how the DJIA movement these few days. If the DJIA can stay on near to the 10,000 points level then it will be a good sign or else it will turn very bad for the whole world equities market.

We Have Some Volume ... Bad Performance From The Share Market ?

Still the same old day ....... No doubt the volume has increased more than 1 billion turnover per day, still we can see the share market movement not much different with certain counters only moving.

FBM-KLCI is creating new high each day but most of the counters performance still like ...... what should we call ..... like sh*t only.

Frankly we can say that this is not a very good market to play along. It seems that the share market is waiting for something to happen. Either they are waiting for some Market Leaders to emerge or they are waiting for something bad to happen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Looking at the latest chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average, it seems that the Dow still have some potential to move on as the DJIA has cross above the 10,000 points level. This level is quite important as it will act as a supporting level. If the DJIA manage to stay at this level for few days ( +,- 200 points) then it will have the strength to move higher. Right now they still didn't post any risk yet. But remember the DJIA has moved since March 2009 until now and I would consider quite dangerous also. Just beware and be careful in each of our trade.

This early morning I will be travelling to Chiang Mai, Thailand and will be back by next week Tuesday. I will keep on monitoring the movement from there and will post some article if there is a need to do so.

FBM-KLCI Higher With Volume Increase ?

Looking at the charts and couple with the total volume done in FBM-KLCI, we might have a small rally coming in. It seems that there isn't any bad news that is going to take down the current Bulls Market.

We still can play along with the sentiment but choosing a right counter would be consider as the best bet in this market because the share market has been moving quite long already and they might be heading for correction in near term?

Looking at the current sentiment, who will going to be our market leader ? Right now it seems that UemLand has the potential to become our market leader.

However based on the world equities market charts, we still have to be careful because many of them seems a bit tired trying to move higher and higher. No doubt the volume in Malaysia share market has increased, a careful approach need to be implement in order to safeguard our profit margin.

HAPPY DEEPAVALI .

HAPPY DEEPAVALI TO ALL *1* MALAYSIA

Wooow. FBM-KLCI At New High. Volume Increase. A Good Sign.

Yesterday the Malaysian share market for the first time breaks and reaches its 1 billion turnovers. This is a good sign and a very good sign but we have to remember that the turnover needs to be sustain through out the uptrend market.

If the turnover just build up for a day or two (above 1 billion) and the next day the turnover touches about 500 - 800 million then we must be on alert.

Volumes build up are very important in order to sustain the current share market movement. A lower turnover would means that they are lack of interest and don't have any interest to invest in this share market.

Speculation counters have started to show some positive sign with many of them have started to move higher. With this kind of situation we need to monitor very close for the whole time as the share market has already shown some positive movement.

With the volume and the turnover starting to build up, I would still prefer if there would be any potential counters that can become our market leaders. Right now our share market especially the speculations doesn't have any leader to leads the market.

Market Leaders can always maintain the uptrend movement of the speculation counters. No doubt the Dow Jones Industrial Average has touches their 10,000 mark or points for the first time since October last year, one would have to bear in their mind that the current Bullish sentiment in DJIA may have reaches it highest points. (Read this article *With Dow Near 10,000, Stocks Might Get Stuck*

So what we need to do now is " Be A Trend Follower Not A Trend Predictor "

Market Looks Better But Counters Didn't Perform ...

The Malaysian share market performance right now looks quite stable with the ability to move higher each day. Overall market seems still not really promising yet with no big volume and turnover to support this share market. Only certain counters are moving. As we can see, in the past few days, some of the counters move higher because of technical rebound after slowly going doing down for two weeks.

The abilities to hold and wait would be the main key to win in this market. A check on the whole share market counters and charts suggested that most of the counters are moving side way with a small gap movement.

I was wondering whether it would be the right time to accumulate but after considering that the FBM-KLCI has been moving since March 2009, I need to change my strategies of playing. Just choose certain counters or some of our favorite counters that have some potential to move on. By the way if we take a closer look the share market now is experiencing a rotational play.

Half month already passed in the month of October and the Dow Jones Industrial Average still performing like BULLS run. The October effect seems didn't occur at all. Any how the world equities market performance still consider quite safe.

FBM-KLCI Close At New High - Volume Traded Still Low ?

As we can see, the Dow Jones Industrial Average really bring some hope to the world equities market with our FBM-KLCI also moving along in tandem with the regional market performance but it is still early to mention that the share market is in the bull run as the volume traded didn't support this theory at all.

Based on the chart, the FBM-KLCI is moving nearer to the next resistance level of 1,242 points level and the Parabolic SAR is showing buying signal again.

Even though we can see some of the speculation counters are moving these two days but the volume or the turnover done still not encouraging yet but certain counters started to make new high. What we can see from here although some of share prices are making new high but the overall market is not really moving in a promising way.

I will assume that these two days advance would be mainly because many counters were moving down for almost two weeks and this time around they are moving up (technical rebound) but we cannot assume that most of counters are going for a technical rebound. Some of the counters are really moving and they really move to break their strong resistance and created new high.

We really need to pay lots of attention in searching for solid counters that can really make huge gains out of it. One has to know that the on going BATTLE is still keep on going and we will never know who will win in the end of this WAR as the FBM-KLCI still staying above the 1,200 points level.

Dow Jones Still Have Strong Resistance To Break Through ?

Well the Dow Jones Industrial Average perform quite well these two days but still the DJIA still have a major hurdle to penetrate their strong resistance at 9,850 points to 9,900 points level. Even if the DJIA have the capabilities to penetrate the strong resistance level, still our share market performance are not moving accordingly (especially the speculation counters).

Some even created new low. With the FBM-KLCI still staying at high, it is quite difficult to understand why our share market is not moving? No doubt the DJIA seems to have the ability to bring the world equities market to move higher but still we need to be well alert on our Malaysia share market performance (when the share prices keep on going down and created new low, it is not a healthy sign) or maybe an opportunity to buy at low ?

GOLD

Gold futures hit a new high on Tuesday, lifted by weakness in the dollar after Australia hiked interest rates and after a report that Gulf-area oil producers, along with China, Russia, Japan and France, are planning to eventually end dollar-based oil pricing. Gold for December delivery rose as high as USD 1,045.00 an ounce in electronic trade, topping the previous record of USD 1,033.90 in March 2008.

If the Gold prices went up and created new high, was it a right time to buy and invest in PohKong shares? From the chart wise, it seems that PohKong share is building up its base and prepare to move higher .......

October Month Usually Bad Month For The Dow Jones ?

Two October trading days past by and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) perform negatively. As most of us knew that the Dow Jones usually performs very badly during the month of October every year. On the 1st of October the DJIA for the first time went down more than -200 points since July this year.

Was it a bad sign or a starting point of a turn around (trend reversal) for the DJIA? Judging from last year performance until now, the DJIA seems to be running for a rest after being running up for quite sometimes (March 2009 until September 2009). Hence we must be well alert on this matter. October month is usually an unstable month for the DJIA.

Checking on the FBM-KLCI movement suggest that the index still staying at the positive zone. Although the Dow Jones down more than -200 points on Thursday, our index still behaved quite positively. Many of our readers or traders knew that the FBM-KLCI seems to be control by the governments' link funds. I will not call that our FBM-KLCI look negatively as the index still stays above the 1,200 points level.

But looking at most of the speculation counters; I would rather say that they look a bit ugly. Either they are waiting for the Time Bomb to be exploded or they are waiting for the perfect time to climb even higher. My suggestions - I will choose to say out unless there is some great news coming out.

Parabolic SAR Selling Signal Appear ?

Well what do we think about our share market performance right now ? No volume to support the overall market movement and indeed the market just like a dead fish only. Only certain counters are performing very well. We only can make money if we really buy at the low and have to wait for certain days and timing then only we can really make some profit.

A quick check on the FBM-KLCI suggest that the trend might take a pause. There is a signal or an indicator showing that the Parabolic SAR already shown a selling signal after yesterday the FBM-KLCI move down. But looking at the FBM-KLCI still staying above the 1,200 points level, we can consider that the index is sitting quite comfortable at this level.

Yesterday also saw the FBM-KLCI touches its major strong supporting line, so we need to be well alert these few days whether the index still can stay at its uptrend channel. Any break down from the uptrend channel will signal that the trend might take a reversal pattern.

Crude Oil Prices Breaks USD 67 Barrel

Basically looking at this market movement today, I would rather say there isn't anything special going to happen to our Malaysian Share Market. The market have already move for quite sometimes and as usual we can't really find any counters going to behave just like a market leader.

If we exam the share market movement it seems that most of them look really tired but the world equities market just won't go down. Looking at current Crude Oil prices (USD 66-67 per barrel), this is not really a good indicator or a good sign for the world equities market.

I have been monitoring the Crude Oil prices movement since last year although I'm not one of the player but whenever Crude Oil prices went down, we have to be careful with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Most of the time Crude Oil prices move accordingly with the DJIA. It happens most of the time but not always. If the DJIA follow the exact trend of the Crude Oil (going down) then it would really a bad sign.

Right now we just can't say that the Crude Oil prices are heading towards the downtrend channel. They need to be confirm if the Crude Oil prices still going down further (break the USD 62.70 per barrel) but we have to monitor it closely in order to preserve our profit margin if the DJIA really follow the Crude Oil prices movement.

Who know ? Anything can happen ..............

FBM-KLCI Still Moving Up But No Market Leaders ?

Well after two days of holiday, we are back to the share market. Current sentiment is a bit active with most of the share prices still hovering around their share prices. I would still prefer the volume done in the market to increase or there will be someone becomes the market leader.

Right at these moments, we still can't find if there is any potential counters would become the market leader. We still have few more days left in the month of September before we are entering in the month of October. As usual in the month of October, DJIA always perform very badly. Usually we call it BLACK OCTOBER. I don't like to behave negatively but rather be cautious ahead in the month of October.

There are still some counters or particular counters that still can moves. It is just that we need to search and eyeing our favourite counters whether they can move or not? These few days the Dow Jones Industrial Averages performing quiet well with the DJIA moving towards the 10,000 points level. Looking at the world sentiment, we can say the equities market are heading up with the lead from the DJIA. It seems that there isn't any bad news to stop the share market from moving up.

Speculate wisely and we can gain something out of it.

SELAMAT HARI RAYA

Selamat Hari Raya. May This Is The Best Hari Raya Celebration For All Of Us.

Some Positive Sign For Few Speculation Counters, Can They Move ?

Looking at today prices, it seems that our market did bring some hope. But how far this hope will bring us to ? Usually if we exam the current trading patent when the share market traded with low volume, it is advisable to buy any of the share prices when they turn to red and whenever they turn to green (if there is some handsome profit), then we should sell it.

Few indicators started to show more positive sign of recovering or maybe they have just started their engine to move forward (maybe moving sideway). But sometimes whenever we think that the share market has some potential to move up, all the sudden they just come down.

Judging from today movement couple with the FBM-KLCI creating new high, maybe I would consider to invest a bit but not in a large scale. Volume traded still consider low, so if any of the profit margin that can be created, we can treat it as an opportunity to take profit. This just my point of view and we cannot take it as it will happen.

KNM Group Berhad seems to show more sign of recovery and the indicator also showing some buying signal. As we use to say, if we want the speculation counters to move we need to have a Market Leader to lead this market, so whether KNM will be the market leader or not or maybe other counters will become a market leader, we still need to wait for further confirmation.

P*S .... I still prefer the total turnover for FBM-KLCI to touch above 1 Billion Shares a day in order to confirm their current uptrend.

FBM-KLCI Perform, Speculation Counters Are Dead ?

Well the FBM-KLCI still at high and indeed we can call it there is still no dangerous sign that can jeopardized the FBM-KLCI movement but if we take a look on most of the speculation counters .... most of them tend to have depreciated near to their recently low.

As I have mention few days back if the FBM-KLCI move towards upward and without the volume improving as a back-up then it is not wise to speculate at these moments. It is quite tricky to get involve right now as there is no indicator or some other good news to push the market up especially for the speculation counters.

Yesterday we might be seeing most of the shares went down but today they might be moving up. Who knows ? As long as the V O L U M E done are not increasing, it is advisable to stay out unless we are really keen on certain counter that really can move.

These few weeks transaction done can be consider quite hard for us to earn some profit as the overall counters especially the speculation counters are not really moving although the FBM-KLCI is moving quite well. It seems that the bulls are fighting it very hard with the bears in order to maintain the FBM-KLCI above the 1,200 points level.

Bravo For The FBM-KLCI, But With No Volume Increase ?

Sorry guys. It has been too long I didn't post any new article about our Malaysian share market. Just come back from Bali, Indonesia. Let us take a look on the current sentiment of the FBM-KLCI.

It was really a surprised that our Malaysia FBM-KLCI managed to cross over above the 1,200 points level. Indeed we as a market player will view it as a positive sign.

After last week bad performance by most of speculation counters, this week they move in tandem with the performance of the FBM-KLCI. One thing for sure, the confident level is still not really high yet for us to jump in.

If we examine the volume and every transaction done for most of the day, it is still not convincing yet for us to invest or to speculate in this market unless we are going for good counters or we can say the blue chip counters.

Volume done each day for the FBM-KLCI play an important part to determine whether we have some space or confirmation in order for us to play along with the current uptrend movement.

One thing we must remember we still need to respect the Dow Jones Industrial Average. At these movement the DJIA might be facing some strong resistance level at 9,650 points. So it is quite important to see whether the DJIA can penetrate that level for the second time.

I would like to be in a positive position and move along with our market sentiment but with the volume done not really convincing yet, a careful trade need to be implement in order to safeguard our profit.

Malaysian Share Market Just Won't Die..

As we can see the share market just won't die. No matter how bad or good the world share market perform still our market just won't die. It is quite hard to determine whether our share market still have the capabilities to move forward?

If we check the market condition and turnover done right now, the volume still not really encouraging. Basically we are still looking at the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They still act as our Big Boss. Basically our market movement will still based on the world equities movement.

If we check on the chart, the DJIA still face some resistance. No doubt these few days the DJIA perform quite well but they need to cross over above their Strong Resistance line in order to confirm that their trend still continuing upwards.

Well I can't post too many article because I was in Bali, Indonesia since last Thursday and will be back on Tuesday.

Time To Get Out From The Share Market ?

Right now there are more and more confirmation surrounding that the current Asia equities market are heading to the south pole. It is quite important to make a few decision whether we want to unload some of the shares that we are still holding it at.

For the last two days the Singapore Straits Times performed very badly with the Hang Seng following the same course. If we take a look on chart, both of their indexes were heading towards the south pole. Either they are going to move sideways or not, the chart suggest that they will move even lower.

Dow Jones Industrial Average still play an important role in keeping the world equities market performance but if we take a closer look at overall world equities market performance, they are not performing accordingly. It is very dangerous right now as the Shangai Stock Exchange already take an early step and plunge all the way down to went even lower from the previous low they created.

My suggestion; unload some of the shares if we feel uncomfortable with it because; who knows, maybe we might brought it at even lower prices.

Can The Dow Jones Industrial Average Touches 10,000 Points ?

As we can see until now most of the world equities market are following the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. With our current market situation right now moving side ways, we have nothing to cherish about. They seem to be hanging around waiting for any new direction before any attempt to move higher or lower.

Basically our share market performance always moves accordingly with the world equities market performance and what we can do right now is to examine the current movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Based on the chart the DJIA is facing a very strong resistance. The resistance level would be around 9,650 points level given a plus minus of around 50 points. Any attempt to break this Strong Resistance level will bring the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to 10,000 points level. So right now it is quite tricky to play around with the current sentiment as the Dow Jones Industrial Average is doing quite well with the volume traded improving.

Either the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go up or go down; we will have to monitor their current movement these few days. But if we check at the volume done, it seems that they have more opportunity to move higher. But sometimes when the Dow Jones perform quite well our share prices cannot perform and it is quite hard to trade with our current sentiment so dull. If the Strong Resistance cannot be break then it will pull down the world equities market performance.

This is just one of my opinion and we cannot take it that it will happen. It just that we need to share more opinion on the current sentiment.

FBM-KLCI Moving Side-Way ?

As we can see, the Dow Jones Industrial Average play an important role in keeping up the world equities market intact. They even went up and created new high with promising increasing volume traded. How far they would go ? It is still early to determine that situation.

No doubt the FBM-KLCI went up but still most of the shares prices still cannot perform accordingly. With the volume traded still going lower and lower, it is quite hard to get a closer look whether our market is going for correction or just moving side-way?

Last week most of the share prices were moving side-way with no indication that they are going to move higher. From my point of views, I would rather stay at the sideline and wait for further promising indicators appear before any recommendation can be made. But sometimes if we re-think about previously rally (last one month), it seems that our share market was creating a SUCKER rally especially for the speculation counters.

FBM-KLCI Targeting 1,100 Points Level ?

One day up and another day go down. If the share market behave with this kind of situation, it is quite hard to look for a technical rebound. It seems that the market sentiment still dull with no volume to support the market movement. Volume build up is quite important in order to support the share market momentum.

Lately these few days the Dow Jones Industrial Average play a very important role in bringing up the share market sentiment but still it didn't help us a lot. With the current sentiment going up and down, it won't be easy to look for an opportunity to strike (buy at low). PATIENTS will be the key word for us in order to look for an opportunity at the downside.

I would rather wait and consider when the index reaches at around 1,100 points level where by this level would react as a strong supporting level. In order for a pure technical rebound to happen the share market must experiencing a huge sharp drop then only the share market can rebound perfectly.

Now the question is, can the FBM-KLCI going down to 1,100 points level ? If can but when ? If no where would be the next course for FBM-KLCI ? It all depends on how the world equities market performance.

Right now it seems that we are playing a cat and mouse game where by at the end, no one is winning but ending up we are losing our time and money. I'm not trying to be bearish but rather to stay at the sidelines as the sentiment right now didn't allow us to speculate more.

The Bears Have Taken Over The Bulls ?

Judging from today movement, it seems that FBM-KLCI has ended its uptrend wave. We are still in the battlefield but if we can hold on and wait, we will have a chance to win this big war (technical rebound). Basically looking at the sentiment right now, I would like to say that the Malaysian share market has turn bearish. This just one of my opinion and we cannot assume that this opinion is correct.

It seems that there so many indicators showing that the blue chip counters and most of the second and third liner counters are not creating new high but instead they are moving lower and lower. World equities market are not performing well. They are breaking their recently low and this is really not a good sign.

Whether the world equities market are moving into a profit taking or a correction, it is not worth it to put our money inside as the percentage of winning is very low. I'm really looking forward for a pure technical rebound. Whether it will happen or not, we will have to wait and see.

My last advice, it seems that the BEARS have taken over the BULLS. So this is not a good time to invest or to play along with the current sentiment which is so bearish.

FBM-KLCI Suffer The Most After Few Weeks Of Up. End of Up-Trend ?

It seems that the Malaysian share market has ended it uptrend wave. Whether the trend is over or not, what we really need to worry now that the current trend has turn into very negative sign. We might be seeing some rebound after a big scare and a sharp fall from Shanghai Exchange.

Shanghai stocks dropped 5.8% Monday, suffering their biggest percentage drop so far this year, as lower commodity prices, persistent worries over tightening in bank loans and weak economic data dampened investor sentiment.

No doubt this the second time that the Shanghai has bring down the Asian equity market into a panic selling situation still the indicator suggest that most of Asian equity markets are entering into a profit taking or correction mode.

Right at these moments what we really can do right now is to look for a technical rebound. Some of us might be losing this opportunity to win recently BATTLE as most of the speculation counters are not moving but still it is not the end for us to win a WAR. Try to find an opportunity and look for pure technical rebound. Who knows ? Maybe this technical rebound will win us a WAR.

Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to be heading for correction after climbing for few weeks. We need to respect our big brother as they will decide where the world equities markets are heading to. But judging from their recently move, they seem to be exhausted.

Pull Out From The FBM-KLCI ?

Like it or not, it seems that more and more counters are performing badly and some even appear to have some selling indicator. Should we pull out from the market at these moments?

Based on the chart indicator, right at these moments we should be well alert whether this share market still has potential to move on as we can see there are so many counters that have been trying to push higher especially the speculation counter for the past one week but they were unable to penetrate their resistance.

It appears that current movement in FBM-KLCI have more potential to move down rather than going up as the Asian equity markets are showing more sign of profit taking or correction. Our former leading market leader - KNM Group Berhad, seems to be going down bit by bit and even created new low. Bad sign.

What we can see from here is; it is not worth it to pump in more funds or money inside the Malaysian share market. Current market sentiment has started to show more bearish sign and it is quite dangerous if we are not careful enough. Cut loss would be the last option that we need to use if there is anything bad really happen.

FBM-KLCI Selling Signal ?

Seeing the share market performance yesterday they move quite nice but when we really put our money inside, on the next day the share market performance behave negatively. It has been happen quite some weeks already. It is not an easy market for contra player.

For those who really can pick up the share, they tend to win in the end. Looking at the market sentiment right now, we still can consider that the Malaysian share market still can perform but we need to be careful because some counters didn't perform quite well. Some even went to create new low (KNM).

One more thing I need to address to most of the market player. I don't know how far our Malaysia equity can perform but based on the chart indicator reading, we need to be well alert. Some selling signal emerged. But sometimes we cannot take this as an indicator to determine that the share market is gone. We just need to be pre-cautious. Form my point of view it is not worth it to pump in more money inside this market.

FBM-KLCI Still Week ?

Current share market performance can be considered quite ok. The blue chip shares are not moving anywhere right now. They seem to be consolidating at these moments. Quite a number of counter still moving and creating new high.

Most of the famous speculation counters still not moving anywhere. I'm still thinking whether the speculation counters will end just like that after this uptrend has finish its story. Until now I still can't find the answer why most of the speculation counters is not moving at all. Maybe this is the last uptrend wave and it is quite tricky.

Last Friday I did post a chart stated the FBM-KLCI is posing a round pattern. I hope that it will not happen because it will drag quite sometimes and for long. Please refer HERE for last week article. The world equities market performance currently especially in the Asian region are taking a pause and consolidating. Well maybe the FBM-KLCI is doing the same thing, following the region performance.

Though Time For Speculation Counters ?

Last Friday the overall Malaysia share market performance reacted quite negatively but the Dow Jones Industrial Average perform very well. Frankly I have no idea why all the sudden the speculation counters close lovely on Thursday but on Friday evening the share prices (speculation counters) close so badly.

Sometimes when we brought and pick up the shares waiting for it move up but all the sudden the share market performance was so bad even we have a bit scared. Although the DJIA close so lovely but sometimes our share market performance did not react positively.

My suggestion on Thursday that most of the speculation counters shown more chances heading to the north but I was wrong. It is not an easy market to play or to invest in this share market unless we really want to go for medium term. But looking at FBM-KLCI staying at 1,184.88 points, I would rather call off my medium term investment.

Will there be any hope for the current share market to move on higher? I would rather say that most of the blue chips counters and certain counters still have more rooms to move on but for the speculations counters I would rather not to comment whether they can go up or go down. They seem to be moving sideway. We can call it "Range Trading". Buy at their low and sell at their high. That is how their current movement right now.

FBM-KLCI Losing Strength ?

Yesterday evening the Malaysian share market reacted quite positive especially the speculation counters. From my point of view, I think that the speculation counters have potential to move up. Based on their movement yesterday, it seems that they have the ability to move higher.

As we can see the FBM-KLCI perform quite well these few days. But their movement showing that they are losing some strength. At these moment the sentiment still quite bullish with more and more shares are creating new high. If we want to follow the sentiment right now, we have nothing to worry about.

But based on the FBM-KLCI movement, we need to monitor further how the FBM-KLCI going to move these few days because based on the chart wise, they seem like forming a round. FBM-KLCI need to go higher is order to cancel that particular pattern. This just a pattern only and we cannot take it as it will happen. This is just a pre-caution measure only.

Cautious Ahead For FBM-KLCI ?

Yesterday for the whole day I was watching how the share market performs. In the morning the share market was moving quite well but all the sudden in the evening the speculation counters reacted badly although the FBM-KLCI perform quite nice.

If we really look at most of the speculation counters, they seem to be some selling and event they break their recently low. No doubt the FBM-KLCI closing at new high but we must be very careful on the reaction perform by the speculation counters.

Yesterday I came a cross an article stated that the Malaysian Share Market Overvalued. I was wondering whether our share markets are really overvalued? We can say that the sentiment right now is quite bullish for the blue chips counter but not so good for those speculation counters.

It is not easy for the FBM-KLCI to come down as the share market sentiment still strong. Maybe it would take some time for them to adjust its movement. But we still need to respect the Dow Jones Industrial Average because they might make the share market turn around.

REMEMBER - RM10 billion being raised for the Amanah Saham 1Malaysia, which goes on sale on Aug 5, there might be an influx of funds into the market to absorb any potential profit taking.

Article : Malaysian Stocks Overvalued : OSK

Malaysian stocks, trading near a one-year high, face the risk of an “Edwardian Summer” that may end with a “crash” as shares are overvalued amid shrinking earnings, according to OSK Research Sdn Bhd.

“As with any Edwardian Summer, the longer it lasts, the more out of touch it gets with its fundamentals, and the greater the crash at the end,” OSK said in a report today. “The market is definitely overvalued.”

Investors should sell “into strength” and buy selected shares such as property developer Malaysian Resources Corp and Top Glove Corp, the world’s largest rubber glove maker, OSK said. It removed Public Bank Bhd from its top five picks.

Top Glove, the world’s biggest rubber-glove maker, gained 4.8 per cent to RM7.23 at midday, set for the largest increase since July 7.

The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index rose 9.3 per cent last month, the steepest increase since April. The measure has risen 34 per cent this year, as the government’ stimulus plans and a RM10 billion fund set up to invest in publicly traded companies helped buoy the market.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, who took office on April 3, has announced stimulus plans valued at RM67 billion to revive economic growth.

OSK likened the market’s outlook to the “Edwardian Summer” in the UK during the reign of King Edward VII from 1901 to 1910. The Edwardian era was regarded as a romantic golden age of long summer afternoons, garden parties and big hats immediately prior to the First World War.

The stock index is trading above 17 times 2009 earnings, higher than the average of 15 times since 2000, OSK said. Companies in the index were trading at 15.5 times in 2006 and 2007 when earnings growth was averaging 30 per cent growth, it said.

With earnings set to shrink in 2009 and grow at only 12 per cent in 2010, the current price to earnings multiple is “excessive,” it said. -- Bloomberg

FBM-KLCI Still Have More Rooms To Move On ?

Yesterday the share market performance was not good at all. Maybe it is because of the new implementation of a new system introduced into the share market. Basically total overall market performance can be consider quite nice although we are seeing some profit taking emerged during the morning session. Most of the world equities market performances still perform quite nice.

Consider the world equities market performances, FBM-KLCI still have the capability to move even higher. How high the FBM-KLCI will go? From my point of view the FBM-KLCI is targeting about 1,190 points to 1,200 points. This is based on the chart that the next target should be there. There is a gap to be fill that was created last June 2008.

Today we can see the FBM-KLCI has move up about 100 over points but not many speculation counters are moving. It is quite hard to trade this few days. It is not an easy market to trade. If we don't have enough patients we might be a loser when the share market has ended its trend. This is to show that in order for us to win this battle, we must be able to pick up whatever shares we purchase if we feel that particular counter can move. Contra is not an option right now.

When this article was posted, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at new high. DJIA was up about +85 point at 9,257.00 points.

Need To Press ALARM Button for FBM-KLCI ?

Yesterday the Bursa Malaysia equities take a pause after having a small run recently but yet the profit margin created was too small. Not every counter is moving higher and some of them not even move at all. Yesterday also we were experiencing some panic selling during the afternoon session. All because of some panic selling occur around the Asian equities market.

Do we really need to worry about the share market condition right now ? Was it the end of the current trend after the FBM-KLCI has move so strongly for past two weeks ? Basically I won't say the end of the market because current market sentiment was bullish especially for the blue chip counters.

The thing that would worry us is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). For the past few days the DJIA seems to be fighting very hard with the Bear's in order to stay above the 9,000 points level. Frankly if the DJIA break the 9,000 points, we cannot straight press the panic button yet as we can see from the chart that the DJIA might be retrace a bit in order for it to go higher if the supporting level of 8,600 point didn't break at all.

As a player in the market, I choose not to see the DJIA break the 9,000 point but to see that the DJIA can go higher this few days. They have already tried to maintain at this level for few days already. We cannot be totally bullish on the world equities market right now as they are adjusting their trade after having some good runs.

The Malaysian equities market especially the blue chips have already moved higher and it is normal for them to have some profit taking activities. We can monitor and see how our share market going to move these few days. What we can do right now is be a trend follower but not a trend predictor.