KL COMPOSITE INDEX. SELL AT STRENGTH. MARKET REBOUNDED

My article posted on Saturday, October 25, 2008 BLACK FRIDAY. SHOCKING FINANCIAL MARKET COLLAPSE, I did mention that I make a call to BUY for this week share market movement. Although the share market fall sharply on Friday last week and it continue to do so on Oct 28, Tuesday; I still maintain and continue to buy the shares and indeed yesterday I'm being able to made some profit and today I sold off most of my share that I have purchased during the last 3 tradings days. Still left some for tomorrow markets.

Tonight Dow Jones Industrial Average might be going up in tandem with the interest rate cut and with most of the Asia Financial market close higher. I would rather make a call to sell at strength for tomorrow share market movement.

When I started to buy, many of my friends don't dare to move in. Usually when this kind of scenario exists this would a sign of an opportunity to buy some shares with the condition that the share market is in a panic situation.

Today the share market went up sharply with the KL Composite Index gains +24.15 points to close at 853.56 points. No doubt the KL Composite Index still have a lot of rooms to move up, I would prefer to stay out and look through the whole situation in our world financial market. As we all can see today market performance is solely a technical rebound.

Tomorrow IOI shares prices movement will determine the way the market will move unless there is a new leader to lead the market and tomorrow I didn't expect the share market to perform better when the market close in the evening. No doubt some of the counters still look very attractive but what is going on in our world financial market will be our top priority to monitor.

IOI Corporation Berhad. Foreign Exchange Losses Not Much

The market rebounded. In the morning session the KL Composite Index gains +18.41 points to close at 847.82 points. This was also follow by a strong rebound in the Asia financial market today. How would it fare in the next few days ? Actually I don't have any answer for that question.

If from my point of view the market should be consolidate after this run up. At the moment the market went up so strongly because of IOI Corporation Berhad. IOI Corporation Berhad lead the market and rebounded strongly during the morning session. The counter gain RM +0.38 to close at RM 2.63 per share in the morning session.

Before IOI Corporation Berhad share prices went down or tumbled, the rumours circulating around stated that IOI foreign exchange losses might be as high as RM 2 billion. Now it appear that IOI Corporation has issued an announcement regarding about the foreign exchange losses and it appear that the losses is not as high as the rumours stated.

Here are the announcement:

Announcement on alleged foreign exchange trading losses suffered by IOI Corporation Berhad. Due to the continuing concerns expressed by various quarters and the conflicting media reports on the alleged foreign exchange trading losses suffered by the Group despite the Company’s earlier announcement dated 24 October 2008, the Company wishes to furnish the following information to further clarify the matter.

As at 30 September 2008, the Group has the following outstanding forward foreign currency contracts: please refer the chart on the right.

The realised foreign exchange loss for the 1st quarter of FY2009 is approximately RM100 million. (Full year FY 2008 – realised foreign exchange gain was RM 7 million).

As stated in our earlier announcement, the nature of the Group’s downstream business is such that a lot of our sales to established customers are for the forward months, sometimes up to two years forward. These sales are secured against forward raw material purchases which are often denominated in different currencies, mainly Malaysian Ringgit and US Dollars.

Accordingly, the Group has been utilising various methods of forward currency coverage and hedging to match the respective income streams and raw material purchase costs to minimise its exposure to the foreign currency risk and hence, protecting its operating margin. Finally, the Company wishes to further assure its shareholders that the financial position of the Group remains strong and it has no problem in meeting the cash flow requirements of its business operations.

The FOURTH FLOOR : Malaysiakini

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad yesterday attacked private equity and venture capitalist company Ethos Capital, warning Datuk Seri Najib Razak against taking advice from those with links to Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's advisers known as the "Fourth Floor".

Writing in his popular chedet.com blog yesterday, Malaysia's former PM accused Ethos Capital of being a "hedge fund" and suggested the firm was eyeing RM300 billion from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF).

"Look at the role of ECM Libra. Will Ethos, who are also linked to the Fourth Floor, become another ECM Libra? "They (Ethos) are interested in getting a portion of the EPF worth some RM300 billion, to manage its investments, apparently with returns of up to 40 per cent."

Dr Mahathir said Najib should remember what happened to Orange County in the United States as it went bankrupt a number of years ago due to investments in hedge funds. He urged Najib to distance himself from Abdullah's advisors from "The Fourth Floor".

"I was informed that Najib has his own influential and young advisors. They have a close relationship with Abdullah's son-in-law and the fourth floor, in fact they are from the same group," said Dr Mahathir in his latest blog posting. Early this month, a political blog had reported that Najib has appointed advisors linked to the Fourth Floor to work in his office.

"With Abdullah's resignation in March 2009, his deputy Datuk Seri Najib will take over as the Prime Minister. Will Najib be free from the Fourth Floor advisors?" he asked. He accused Abdullah's advisors of abusing their position for financial gains and for causing the Barisan Nasional coalition to perform badly during the last General Election.

"Oxford and Cambridge graduates are special, but there are just too many of them and it does not guarantee special ability. And these youngsters are inexperienced in administration, politics and the economy," said the former prime minister.

"Advise made by the young advisors, which were highly regarded by Tun Musa Hitam, brought disaster to Abdullah. Najib must be careful not to allow this to happen again," said Dr Mahathir.

Since taking over the premiership in late 2003, Abdullah has constantly been accused of leaving most of the decision making process to his son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin and his advisors, although none of the allegations have been substantiated.

Dow Jones At Its Bottom? Will It Climb After The US Presidential Elections?

Next week according to the latest polls shows that Senator Barack Obama for sure will be the next U.S President. Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) able to climb up when the Senator Barack Obama win the U.S presidential election on Nov 2, 2008 ?

According to charts shown, DJIA might already found its bottom. This is just my projection but I also not sure whether DJIA already found its bottom ?

The recently low of 7,882.51 points created on 10.10.2008 shows that the lows has not yet been broken after 11 days of trading.

If we take a look on the TOP 12 Dow's Biggest Losses, there were 7 biggest losses recorded during the month of September and October alone. With 3 times recorded in the month of September and 4 times recorded in the month of October 2008.

The month of Satan (October) for DJIA is nearly over with 4 more days for DJIA to trade. I have a hunch that the DJIA might rebound anytime from now with the condition that recently new low created must not be broken.

Today the KL Composite Index also suffers its worst in the morning session. The index closes down in the morning session with a loss of -51.16 points to close at 807.95 points. Still able to maintain at above 800 points level.

At this level I would still consider it dangerous but in the morning session I still keep on buying some of shares as their prices are too attractive and I expecting the rebound will happen soon.

Losses at the moment will be consider at the minimum if we dare to buy any of shares today but there will be a condition to follow. Buy to hold but not for contra. As I use to say this is just my opinion and it cannot be consider as an indicator to buy or to sell any shares. I just felt that the market is highly overdone.

Charts Are Unusable. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis Already Proves That.

Lately there was a few blogger in their blog that I face, was still using a chart as a guide to determine where the market headed to. No doubt, chart is very useful in term of guidance for us to trade and to trace the way it move but in this financial meltdown or crisis, any suggestion about how the market move, where is the supporting line, what would be the next target is totally unusable and unacceptable.

I have posted several projection about where the market might found its support or where might be the bottom is but to no prevail, all this projections have falls into the drain.

Charts are only useful when the market is stabilize without any disaster happen. Several of my friends had call me and ask me why lately there was no charts shows on my web ?

The answer that I gave to them were, it is better for us to know more inputs on the information about the financial crisis that we need to monitor at. How bad is our current financial crisis in our world. Would it be as bad as 1997 Asian Financial Crisis or would it be the worst that we can't even imagine of.

Many of my friend who previously trade in the share market, a few of them still survive and many of them have already vanished, bankrupt and some even cannot recover what ever losses that had been made during 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

Now it is not about the chart that will tell us when we can buy or to sell at this kind of financial crisis. But outside there are still many chartist using it to determine the market movement. I was wondering why ? I'm chartist but not as good as they are if I want to compare with those who have the experience one but I know how to trade in share market.

I have survived several crisis until now and I know as a chartist I need to discipline my self. During this financial crisis, charts are useful for us as to guide us how to trade but not to determine when would be right timing for us to buy or to sell.

As I mention earlier, charts are only useful with their indicators and reading when the share market is in a stability position. So let's face it to the fact. In this most disastrous situation more input about financial crisis and news would be the top priority because it affect everyone.

Who know during the financial crisis started back in Thailand on July 2, 1997 because the collapse of the Thai Bath, we never knew that it would spread through out the neighbour country and even jeopardize so many country including South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. Hong Kong was also being attack but they were lucky because they having a strong reserves and a strong support from China. A few times their currency being attacked but they managed to overcome it.

Take a look on the charts what really has happen during 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. No one will know where the bottom is ? I don't. It took nearly one year from the day of the financial crisis strike and share market started to recover after former Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad pegged the ringgit against the US Dollars. The effect towards the Malaysia's financial instruments took nearly three years to recover. Still remember the whole history event ?

During 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, various task force agencies were formed. The Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee dealt with corporate loans. Danaharta discounted and bought bad loans from banks to facilitate orderly asset realization. Danamodal recapitalized banks.

Happy Deepavali

BLACK FRIDAY. SHOCKING FINANCIAL MARKET COLLAPSE.

Yesterday I would give the share market panic selling situation (-32.21 points to close at 859.11 points) a call to BUY for next week movement. The market was in a PANIC situation yesterday. I never saw this kind of panic situation. Whether the share that I brought can make profit or not, it would be consider another issue. The share market is beyond volatile. It is chaotic.

It is just that the market appears to in a free falls since last week until now. How far it will go down at this stage ? I can't really find the answer for that but I can sense that the market selling activity is highly overdone. Not only in Malaysia but around the global.

I jump in and brought the IOI Corporation Berhad (2.49), Gamuda Berhad (1.39), IJM Corporation Berhad (3.00) and WCT Engineering Berhad (1.28). It appears that the bank and the fund are selling it willingly. All they want is CASH in hand. During this panic situation I would rather jump in and bet on the fundamental of the company.

Yesterday I would also rated it as a truly THE BLACK FRIDAY for the world financial market around the global. I still can remember when I made a call on October 7, 2008 that we will facing One of The Deadliest Disasters of all time. Greater Than The Mother of Tsunami and Earth Quake and it really happens yesterday.

First I thought October 10, 2008 would be The BLACK FRIDAY for the whole world financial market but yesterday I just can't really believe it that it happens again. In my 20 years involvement in the share market, I never see this kind of DISASTERS in my life. For the next few weeks to come we might heard someone might be jumping off from the buildings and take their own life. Who knows ?

Malaysiakini : Anwar Ibrahim Don t Have The Numbers.

During the month of August and September, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim can be considering the main actor in Malaysia political scene. Today if we take a look on the month of October, Anwar has been quiet until now. Less political news appear in Malaysiakini and people now are talking about global financial crisis.

What really happen to our ambitious Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim ? I still can remember that every word that come out from Anwar lips can create chaos among the bloggers.

When every of his words start to come out, a lot of the bloggers will start to write a lot about his statement, his article and eventually will praised him just like a god.

It happens to me once before and it happen to other also. Last two days in his latest statement he mention that after all his hype over a takeover plan, he is ‘not in a terrible hurry’ to topple the government - but insists he is still working on the plan.

From this statement alone suggested that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim doesn't have enough seats for him to topple the governments and go straight ahead to Putrajaya. Why he created all the trouble in the first place ? Please refer to this article posted on Wednesday, October 1, 2008 Malaysiakini : DO ANWAR HAVE THE NUMBERS ?

For sure he is trying to divert the attention of all the Malaysian towards his sodomy cases. If we think about it for a while and recall back what has happen during Permatang Pauh by-election, why he went for a by-election in a hurry way ? Why ?

After he being accused of sodomy and his wining in Permatang Pauh, he went straight away to Parliament and organizing some rally across the state to announce his take over plan. For what purposes ? To gain more popularity ?

But from now on, no one is really wanted to cares about his matter anymore. It would be historic news and a past and present issue. At least now we can concentrate and monitor what really going to happen in our country financial sentiments.

WHY Share Prices of IOI Corporation Berhad Tumble ?

PRESS RELEASE- RUMOUR ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING LOSSES SUFFERED BY IOI CORPORATION BERHAD

IOI Corporation Berhad (“The Company”) wishes to make the following clarifications in connection with certain news reports quoting rumours that the Company had suffered foreign exchange trading losses.

The Company, being involved in substantial downstream businesses selling palm oil and related value-added products to many other countries, derives a substantial part of its revenue in several foreign currencies. For example, in FY 2007/2008, about USD3 billion of its annual revenue are denominated in foreign currencies, mainly Euro and US Dollars.

At the same time, the nature of the Company’s downstream businesses is such that a lot of our sales to established customers are for the forward months, sometimes up to two years forward. These sales are secured against forward raw material purchases which are often denominated in different currencies, mainly Malaysian Ringgit and US Dollars.

As a result, the Company and its subsidiaries have been utilizing various methods of forward currency coverage and hedging to match the respective income streams and raw material purchase costs.

The nature and details of these foreign currency coverage contracts, particularly the currency swaps and options, have been adequately disclosed according to the accounting rules in the Company’s quarterly results announcements and annual reports during the last several financial years.

We wish to state that making losses or gains on these forward currency contracts is a normal course of events for the Company’s downstream businesses. Due to the disclosure requirements, the losses or gains on some of these forward contracts, even though unrealised, will have to be disclosed first whereas the corresponding forex gains or losses on the sale of physical products can be taken up only at the time of actual sale.

The losses or gains from these “timing differences” have always been occurring in the past but have been made more significant recently due to the volatile foreign exchange markets. What is more important to note at the end of the day is that the Company’s downstream businesses derive their profits from the ‘locked-in’ contribution margins and not from the fluctuations in exchange rates.

Finally, the Company wishes to emphasise that it is not our policy to take speculative positions on foreign currency movements. Our forward foreign currency coverage and hedging contracts are intended to protect ourselves from the fluctuating foreign currency movements and ensure that the intrinsic value-add margins in our downstream businesses are intact. The Company has always practised prudent operational and financial management which have been a hallmark of our success for so many years.

Financial Market Might Collapse Anytime From Now ?

Lately we can see how our world financial turmoil can really bring huge damages to the whole nations. Not only in America but also in Europe. England has announced that their country were entering into recession with America already confirmed it.

Several nations are still struggle to balance up their financial positions. Recently many countries have made an injection of an undisclosed amount to their financial system, a few hundred billion or maybe trillion in order to help out their country banking system.

Even leaders from around the world were working together to help the world financial turmoil. It is not about one nation but it is about the whole world. Now we can see how strong this financial turmoil can bring until all the nations in the world have to work together.

If all the nations cannot find a solution pertaining to this disaster, the whole world will suffer. Many financial markets in every country might collapse and maybe the national government banks cannot guarantee the saving that we kept inside the bank any more.

Iceland has been at the forefront of the global credit crisis. Recently what was essentially a banking crisis has turned into a national crisis as Iceland’s banks appear too big for the government to rescue.

Leaders from Asia and Europe will gather in Beijing Friday for two days of talks in which French President Nicolas Sarkozy will seek Asian backing for his bid to rebuild the world's financial system. The global economic woes are set to dominate the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM), a summit of 43 nations held every two years, with the forum offering the first opportunity for Asian countries to discuss the financial crisis as a group.

Sarkozy, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, has made it clear he will use the event to press Asian nations for support in a dramatic restructuring of the global financial system . Sarkozy said on Tuesday his objective for the forum was "to convince the Asian powers to take part in this (financial) rebuilding."

The French president is particularly looking to China and India, who he wants to join a series of global summits beginning in the United States next month that are likely to see his bolder plans meet resistance from Washington.

India has said it will participate in the summits, and China is expected to announce its decision shortly after giving repeated assurances it wants to contribute to helping the world out of its economic mess. Sarkozy has called for an overhaul of the Bretton Woods system that has governed international finance since the end of World War II, and launch a new system.

Baltic Dry Index - Indicators for Bear Market ?

You want to see what a real bear market looks like? Take a peek at the Baltic Dry Index.

The BDI, which measures the rates shipping companies charge to move bulk commodities by sea, has fallen 89% since May as the air rushed out of the speculative commodity bubble.

The index, which today hit its lowest level since September 2002, is a key indicator of demand — and prices — for such basic commodities as iron ore, coal, grains and soybeans.

So a falling BDI would seem like good news. We’d all like cheaper steel in our cars and less expensive cereal in our bowls every morning. The rub is that the Baltic Index’s free fall is an indicator of dramatically slowing demand for commodities around the globe, particularly in China, where steel output is dropping fast.

In a recent report cited by Dow Jones, Barclays Capital blamed the index’s tumble on a “darkening” global economic outlook, noting that “the collapse of the BDI is undoubtedly significant and reflects a slowing in commodity demand.”

In other words, in future things might be cheaper, but the economy may crumble around us — especially since a falloff in overseas economies could further weaken demand for U.S. exports, which had been one of the few bright spots for U.S. businesses until they hit a slowdown last month.

The decline in commodity demand has also been a major pain for investors in global bulk shipping companies. At the moments we can't feel the heat yet because what we can see now is just the beginning but what would happen in the next six months to one year from now on ? The picture will be a different story............

GENTING INTERNATIONAL P.L.C

I just come back from Singapore after having my holiday for 4 days 3 nights. During my trip there I have a chance to visit Sentosa Island.

To my surprised the constructions works were running very well. I was impressed. When I saw the project, I was thinking of buying Genting International shares.

I have been informed by my sister who was staying there. She was having a Permanent Resident in Singapore. She told me that she brought the Genting International P.L.C at SGD 0.60 per share.

Resorts World at Sentosa (RWS) is an integrated resort being built by Genting International and Star Cruises on Singapore’s beautiful Sentosa Island. The resort will include a large Las Vegas style casino, six distinct hotels offering a total of 1,800 rooms hotels, a Universal Studios theme park, and many other attractions.

With six themed zones, including The Lost World™, Hollywood Boulevard and Egypt, Universal Studios Singapore® is an adrenaline-charged excursion that will fill an entire day, or more.

The Marine Life Park is set to be the world’s largest oceanarium, with 700,000 fishes in 20 million gallons of water. Resorts World at Sentosa has made research and education cornerstones of this attraction, which aims to inspire, educate and enrich the understanding and protection of the oceans.

The Maritime Xperiential Museum is an innovative, multi-sensory interpretation of one of the most glorious periods in Asian history. With shipwrecks, treasures and deep ocean life, the museum at Resorts World at Sentosa will make history accessible and be a hit with both adults and kids

Equarius Water Park promises to be one of the world’s most exciting water theme parks. This Resorts World at Sentosa attraction will nestle under the lush canopy of a tropical rainforest, with its water rides, slides and pools framed by towering trees and jungle ferns.

Due to the recent financial meltdown, shares prices of Genting International went down to a price that can be considered worth of buying. At a price of about SGD 0.40, it is worth to invest as a medium to long term investments.

With the current crude oil prices standing at their lows this year and with the constructions material prices are falling due to financial turmoil in the world, it would be a great advantage and a great timing for the Genting International P.L.C to build RWS and complete it on time.

Please visit this video website for the latest update on their site (http://www.rwsentosa.com/video/webcast08_sep.html). It schedule to open in the year of 2010. Believe me if you want to invest in this share, now would be the right time. If not because of financial turmoil, I don't think we can get at this price today.

Anwar Files Defamation Suit. Wee Ka Siong To Defend - Malaysiakini

In the month of April 2008 PKR adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has filed a RM 10mil defamation suit against Deputy Education Minister Dr Wee Ka Siong for allegedly uttering defamatory words during over the latter’s alleged defamatory words during a ceramah preceding the Machap by-election last year.

Anwar, a former deputy prime minister, claimed that the defamatory words by Dr Wee were intentional and done in bad faith. The suit was filed by Anwar through his lawyer’s firm, S.N. Nair & Partners, at the High Court Registry, at the Jalan Duta Courts Complex.

On Oct 16, 2008. Datuk Dr Wee Ka Siong who recently being elected as National MCA Youth Chairman issued a statement that he will defend against Datuk Seri Anwar defamation suit of RM 10 million. It will be a good fight if these cases being put to the court hearing.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE BIGGEST LOSSES.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tracks the country's 30 biggest companies fares the worst performance in their historic selloff.

Usually in the month of September and October every year Dow Jones Industrial Average always perform badly, either moving side way or tumble across the board. But this time the DJIA Bear's is much bigger than the previous one.

If we take a look on the chart - The Dow's biggest losses: In September 2008 and October 2008 it recorded six times sharp falls if we want to compare their historic data.

This can be considering the worst performance so far if we want to compare during the dot-com bubble burst in 2001.

Latest Development : Buffett says he's buying U.S. stocks.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is buying U.S. stocks, he wrote in an opinion column in the New York Times. "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett wrote in the paper.

Buffett acknowledged the economic news was bad, with the financial world in a mess, unemployment rising and business activity faltering. "What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up," he said. "So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

Buffett, who made his money by building his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc into a $199 billion conglomerate, wrote that investors were right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions.

"But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," he said. Buffett said major companies would suffer earnings hiccups, but added they "will be setting new profit records five, 10 and 20 years from now."

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Whether this statement issue by Warren Buffect wil help the DJIA to stablize, the damages have already been done. Everything will depend whether the U.S financial bailout plan will help to ease some tension in the Wall Streets.

Malaysia KL Composite Index To Break 900 Points Next Week ?

Today KL Composite Index went down -14.79 points to close at 905.23 points. It was another sad day for Bursa Malaysia. It seems that the banks have activated their force selling activities in order to recover their margins. A few counters with good fundamental also come under heavy selling pressure lately. Yesterday KNM was the main actor but today another counter also face the same problem like KNM.

Today Gamuda Berhad share price was under heavy selling pressure. Not only Gamuda share was under heavy selling pressure, WCT Berhad (-0.15 sen to close at RM 1.65) was also under heavy selling pressure this past few days.

From as high as RM 2.62 per share recorded on 30.09.2008, today WCT prices drop again to close at RM 1.64 per share. A drop of RM -0.16 sen. This counter only need two week for it to drop nearly RM 0.98 sen.

Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up so much yesterday(+401.35 points), it didn't help much on our KL Composite Index. Maybank (-0.35 sen to close at RM 5.10), AMMB (-0.17 sen to close RM 2.23) and Genting (-0.14 sen to close at RM 4.52) also face the same problem which were under heavy selling.

People seem to have loss their confident towards Bursa Malaysia. People now are more worry that the recession might strike anytime from now on. Our neighbour Singapore and the U.S market have confirmed that they were already entering the recession based on their latest data.

Stay out from the market will be the right technique to apply at this moment. As I have mention before that we are facing One of The Deadliest Disasters of all time. Greater than the mother of Tsunami and Earth Quake - THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MELTDOWN.

My previously article posted on Tuesday, October 7, 2008, I did mention that "I can't find the bottom and also I can't find when is the right time... ? It is too dangerous out there.... it is a global financial market EXPLOSION ....."

"We will get hurt easily... Now the market condition is just like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. I saw it before during that time (1997 Asian Financial Crisis) ..... many analyst had made a called and issued buying signal when the share prices hit their target and went to a price that is really cheap but what happen when time past by. Cut loss, incurs more losses, prices are getting cheaper and cheaper. It just likes no sign of recovery."

This is The Worst Financial Crisis compare to 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

KL Composite Index Still In Dangerous Zone ?

To my surprised the KL Composite Index easily breaks the recently new lows created two days ago. Even with my experience in monitoring the movement of the KL Composite Index, still I had to admit that what ever calculation that I had made, still the KL Composite Index went down beyond my expectation.

Yesterday shares market closing prices can be consider very bad. It is something that we cannot found in months or years to come. It seems that the share market is getting from bad to worst.

New lows were created everyday. No significant rebound or solid rebound occur. With the on going slaughter by Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), it is impossible for the KL Composite Index to recover accordingly.

Yesterday for the first 45 min, KNM bring a shocking surprised when it went straight to limit down at RM 0.39 sen before close at RM 0.685 sen in the evening. During that straight falls I brought KNM at RM 0.395 and sell it off at RM 0.43 for quick profits but still I cannot cover the losses that I make yesterday.

The way the market move shows that there is no limitation for it to go down further. Blue Chips had been sold off heavily yesterday with many of them still cannot recover until the market close. My advice to all my readers is to stay out from the share market until a significant move to confirm that the KL Composite Index will start to show some stability. That also includes the global share market stability.

EPF. Major ShareHolders Exit KNM. Why ?

KNM Group Bhd was the most actively traded counter today (15.10.2008) with 154.19 million shares of the company’s equity changing hands. The process equipment manufacturuer’s shares slipped RM -0.215 sen to RM 0.69 sen at the close of trade. KNM slipped into penny stock category last Friday.

Announcements to Bursa Malaysia indicate that the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) disposed of about eight million shares in the company on Oct 8, trimming its shareholding to 272.8 million shares or 6.9% of the share capital.

EPF had come into KNM with a 5.3% shareholding in mid-June last year and had been trading the company’s shares heavily but had never disposed of such a big block.

An analyst from a local broking house said that the major sell-down could also be due to KNM’s foreign shareholders dumping their shares in the open market. “They are getting out of emerging markets and pulling back funds to their original country in a bid to support their own economy.”

The analyst was referring to Boston-based FMR LLC and Bermuda-incorporated FIL Ltd (Fidelity). The funds started divesting their equity in August this year after turning bearish on the Malaysian market.

A few months ago, portfolio manager at Fidelity’s US$886 million (RM3.1 billion) Asean fund, Gillian Kwek had said the fund was underweight in Malaysia, “given the political uncertainty and lower business confidence.”

At present FMR and Fidelity control about 9.7% equity or 385.2 million shares in KNM. As at mid-August this year the two funds controlled about 10.5% or 415.8 million shares in KNM. FMR and Fidelity had emerged as substantial shareholders in July last year with a 5.2% take.

KNM has been aggressive with its acquisitions and has businesses in Brazil, Germany, Italy, the US, Canada and Australia, among others. For the six months to June this year, KNM posted a net profit of RM 150.4 million on the back of RM 930.6 million revenue, an incraese of 99% and 77%, respectively from a year earlier.

KNM. What Happen To This Counter ?

What really happen to KNM ? I was so surprised when this counter went down so much today. On Monday I brought 10,000 shares of KNM at RM 0.98 and today I have to cut loss at RM 0.875. My Tuesday profit wipes out more than half. As I had mention in my previously article that not ever counter that you brought on Monday can make contra profit. You would be lucky if you can make some of it.

Today the share market sentiments were being dragged by KNM. In the afternoon session the KL Composite Index drop -16.13 points to close at 949.93 points and KNM counter drop RM -0.145 to close at RM 0.76 (-16.02 %).

Kinsteel and Perwaja were breaking new lows, a new low that couldn't be trace. It keeps on falling and falling to a level I can hardly believe.

Usually when a counter face some panic selling, I would consider an opportunity arrive but how far KNM will go down ? I'm still monitoring it. I got a bit scared this morning by KNM selling. From the charts reading the counter are now entering to highly oversold position.

If we take a look at the trendlines, the trendlines still supporting very well at this moment (that was the afternoon market closing). But I would prefer it to break the trendline and then I would consider the next step. I have to wait and watch until the closing price for today then I will make some judgement on this counter.

Zaid : Chinese Malaysians Have Made Great Sacrifices

Article from MY SinChew.com http://www.mysinchew.com/node/16969

Former minister in the prime minister's department Datuk Zaid Ibrahim said true Malays need not be afraid, or feel lack of a sense of security. "Take myself as an example. I'm a pure Malay, but I have a sense of security. I feel proud of my own race and culture."

However he said, the problem is that many people do not understand or respect history. Indians, Chinese and Malays have been participating in the nation-building process since a few centuries ago.

The Indians used to work in the estates, while the Chinese and Indonesians have all made valuable contributions and sacrifices for the nation too. But we have all forgotten this.

Zaid Ibrahim quit his Cabinet post because he did not agree to the government's decision of detaining civilians under the Internal Security Act (ISA). He said during an exclusive interview with Sin Chew Daily that the Chinese used to work here as miners, and they made great sacrifices during the confrontation with the communists, adding that we must understand history and what they have done for the nation.

"The rights of every individual must be respected and taken care of by everyone else." "We are only talking about Malaysia as the 19th largest export country in the world, and that we have the twin towers and are a developed country...

Do you think we have done all this ourselves ? You're wrong. This achievement has been made after so many people from different ethnic groups have sacrificed for the nation.

"We are not talking about the positive things, but instead discussing how we should get worried because the Chinese have opened how many more new stores here. "As a matter of fact, the first feeling we should have is not about worry. We should work harder to keep up with them instead.

"I've never been worried about the Chinese. In my legal firm, my partner is a Chinese, and we trust each other. Do you think I have built up my success all on my own ?

"I'm not scared that the Chinese are smart, for I'm also very smart. I'm not scared that the Chinese are hard working, for I'm also very hard working. We have bad guys in every ethnic group, and you're cheated simply because you're not smart enough. We must educate young Malaysians to look at things from a positive perspective."

Zaid said certain people have kept on mentioning May 13 to blackmail the people. However he felt that given our current situation, this thing would never happen again. "I am thinking, for a better future, all Malaysians should stand up and speak out bravely.

The Chinese must defend the rights of the Malays, and the Malays must also defend the rights of the Chinese. Everyone must be properly taken care of here."

He felt that we should not rely on a single political party to take care of a particular community. It should be that the rights of every individual must be respected and taken care of by everyone else. (By HOU YALUN/Translated by DOMINIC LOH/Sin Chew Daily)

Anwar. Why He Change His Mind So Fast ? - Malaysiakini

I was so surprised to find out that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim yesterday indicated that he was not going to move for a motion of no-confidence against the prime minister.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim yesterday also called upon newly Finance Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak to table a new budget in the wake of the on going global financial crisis.

Why all the sudden Datuk Seri Anwar change his mind ? Four days before the parliament session started on Monday, he was attending in a large crowd rally at Padang Perdana last Thursday (09.10.08)

At the rally he mention it will happen before the end of the year 2008. In his speech; “It is not like something I will allow to linger for one or two years. The momentum will continue when the Parliament goes into session on Monday.”

Why he mention the momentum will continue when the Parliament goes in session on Monday and when the time arrive he was talking about global financial crisis and want to table a new budget ? I was wondering why he change his mind so fast in just four days period ? Maybe he got a new agenda for his new tactical strategies to become the next Malaysia Prime Minister.

Dow Jones Market Rebounded, So What Will Happen Next ?

Wall Street stormed back after its worst week ever and staged the biggest single-day stock rally since the Great Depression on Monday, catapulting the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to a +936.42 point gain, its largest point gain ever, largest percent gain since 1933 and finally offering relief from eight consecutive days of stock market carnage. The S&P 500 also posted its largest percent gain in 69-years on Monday, snapping an eight session losing streak in the process.

I didn't expect the DJIA to gain so much. I just expecting it to rebound only. Yesterday during the morning and afternoon session I did brought some shares worth nearly RM 100,000 and this morning I sold off most of the shares but still left some. I sold about 80 % of my yesterday holdings.

It is not easy to make money unless you buy the right counter. Not every counter can make contra money unless you hold it for another few days.

My expectation towards this market at this moment; the index will gradually moving up slowly. If we take a look on my last article about share market posted on Saturday, October 11, 2008 (KL COMPOSITE INDEX WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK ?) the KL Composite Index will likely to stay in between 925 points to 1,020 points.

I'm also expecting the world market to stabilize at the moment. Still we need to be careful all the time because the global financial meltdown has just started to show their jaws.

Whether the US 700 billion will help the US financial turmoil and whether the injection of funds by the governments in Europe will help their banking system from being collapse, it is still in the earlier stage. The real story about the damages suffer by their financial institutional are still been cover up by their governments.

Still I would prefer to stay out and do nothing about it. Just watch where the next level of the KL Composite Index is and the DJIA is heading to.

History Shows It May Take 10 - 30 Years For The Market To Revive

An article from Yahoo Finance.

If 1987 was like being in a bad accident, this market is like running into a bully who beats you up and takes your lunch every day, day after day. In that regard, the current market upheaval is "more insidious" than the 1987 crash, says John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder.

Whether 1987 or 1929, the now year-long slump already ranks among the worst in U.S. market history. Both the Dow and S&P are now down more than 40% from their 2007 peaks, the worst bear market since 1973-'74, when the Dow fell 45% in two years.

Given the historical nature of the current decline, it's useful (and wise) to recall how the market fared in prior periods of prolonged distress, as Roque recently did in a report entitled "Don't Know Much About History."

• From 1909 to 1919, the Dow was essentially flat for 13 years.
• After peaking in 1929, the Dow didn't make a new all-time high until 1957, nearly 30 years later.
• From 1965 to 1982, the Dow was essentially flat for 16 years.

In other words "it takes time" to recover from the kind of drops occurring now, Roque says. Expectations for a rapid recovery a like expecting a basketball player who's suffered a serious knee injury to start playing at full speed right away.

If there's any solace in this grim tale is that's the Dow and S&P are now back to 1998 levels, meaning we're 10 years into the latest period of prolonged market malaise.

ANWAR. Should We Give Him Another Chance ?

Should Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim been given another chance to trust his words again. He has set that by year end things will be different. He did mention it during a large crowd rally at Padang Perdana last Thursday.

He says it will happen before the end of the year 2008. “It is not like something I will allow to linger for one or two years. The momentum will continue when the Parliament goes into session on Monday.”

He claims that despite the delay in his plans, the 31 lawmakers have given him their support and they have not reneged on their support. An official from Anwar's PKR party said they are planning some strategies, one of the strategies include seeking an audience with Malaysia's king, Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin, to claim a mandate to rule.

We will have to wait for today Parliament session, whether there would be anything special about it. Although he clarified that he has not given any new specific date for the takeover of federal government but for sure Datuk Seri Najib won't give it up easily.

KL COMPOSITE INDEX WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK ?

BLACK FIRDAY will be remembering as the darkest day of the world global financial history. Now is this the right time to catch the deadliest FALLING KNIFE ? Yesterday while I was sitting and studying the KL Composite Index movement couple with the global market movements, I would suggest that next week market will be an entry points.

In my previous article posted on Thursday, October 9, 2008 KL Composite Index To Rebound or Just Move Sideway ? I did mention "Whenever there is a sharp drop in KL Composite Index during that time (refer Point B,1) the index will recover for few days before went down again.

After a period about two weeks when the index reach the bottom (refer Point B,2) it will start to climb back again but now, where is the bottom ?

The index might either go down a little bit more (refer Point C,2) or stay sideway before the index start to climb up again. Don't be surprised if the index might touch 1,000 points again." SO WHERE IS THE BOTTOM ? That is a very good question to ask but no one will know.

Based on my calculation and reading towards the charts, if the KL Composite Index still move down and create new lows on Mondays, I can says that will be the bottom but if the Monday market open up or didn't make any new lows, Friday lowest points 931.79 will be consider as the bottom.

As I mention before if I want to make an entry to the share market I will prefer a significant move like what we use to call a "Collapse" or "Tumble" or "Panic Selling" or "Tsunami Selling" like it happen once before (after the 12th General Election - KL Composite drop 10 percent). Friday market seems to be panic.

Certain factors that argues very well towards my suggestion.

1) The world market has down drastically within 7 days and some of it only posted slightly rebound (highly oversold)

2) Dow Jones Industrial Average from as high as 11,218.48 points recorded on 30.09.2008 and drop to lowest points recorded on Friday (10.10.2008) at 7,882.51 points, a drop of -3,335.97 points before the market close at 8,451.19 points (-128.00 Friday closing) still a drop of -2,767.29 points without any gains been recorded for the past 8 trading days.

3) Based on the charts given whenever our KL Composite Index enter to an oversold position, it start to make a comeback. Charts already proved that each time whenever the indicator oversold it will rebound.

4) Counter look very attractive with the recently new low prices.

5) G7 Group announced a five-point plan to counter the world's financial turmoil after a hastily-arranged meeting in Washington.

• Take decisive action and use all available tools to prevent "important" institutions from failing.
• Take steps to unfreeze credit and money markets and ensure that banks and other institutions have broad access to liquidity and funding.
• Ensure that banks and other major financial intermediaries can raise enough capital from public and private sources to re-establish confidence and kick start lending to individuals and businesses.
• Ensure that each country's deposit insurance programs are strong and consistent to assure depositors their money is safe.
• Take action to restart the secondary markets for mortgages and other securitized assets

6) U.S. government was working on a plan to buy stock in financial institutions by using part of the USD 700 billion authorized by Congress to stabilize the financial system.

7) When there is over fears and no one dare to buy any shares, loss of confident and some even cut their losses, that would be the exact time to make an entry (with right timing)

8) Malaysia banking systems still standing well despite global financial meltdown.

This is just my own points of views and cannot be consider accurate. Still we need to be careful because recently in Japan, Yamato Life Insurance Co. has filed for bankruptcy. I just worried that whether the bankruptcy of Yamato Life Insurance Co. has already start to trigger a DOMINO EFFECT on our Asian Financial System ............

BLACK FRIDAY. THE WORST OF ALL TIME IN WORLD FINANCIAL HISTORY - Malaysiakini

Yesterday World Stock Market crash again. This time was the worst in this century. Please refer this article also for your references : Malaysiakini : BANK GUARANTEE RM 60000 If Financial Problem Strike ?

Thailand's share prices plummeted 9.6 per cent Friday, prompting regulators to close the market for 30 minutes after midday trading when share values had dropped more than 10 per cent. Singapore stock exchange lost more than six percent and falls into recession after two quarters of falling gross domestic product (GDP) shows that the Singaporean economy is now technically in a recession.

In Indonesia, the stock exchange president said trading would remain suspended "to prevent deeper panic" since Wednesday. The Australian All Ordinaries index closed more than eight percent lower.

In Asia Japan's Nikkei Exchange closed down 9.6 percent, its biggest one-day percentage loss since the stock market crash of October 1987, to close out its worst week in history despite the Bank of Japan injecting 4.5 trillion yen (USD 45 billion) into financial markets. Yamato Life Insurance Co. filed for bankruptcy on Friday. At one time the Nikkei diving 11 percent at one point as fears grew that the financial crisis is spiralling out of control.

London's FTSE, the CAC in Paris and the XETRA DAX in Frankfurt, Germany all closed down between six and eight percent. Vienna Stock Exchange has suspended trading until midday after stocks tumbled 10 percent at the opening bell.

Russian government financial officials again indefinitely suspended trading on its stock exchanges - a move they have taken several times this week to avoid share price plunges and surges.

Oil prices plunged to a 13-month low Friday, following steep stock market declines, as investors worried that the weakening global economy was driving down demand for fuel worldwide.

U.S. crude for November delivery sank as much as USD 9.50 to a low of USD 77.09 a barrel during Friday trading, its lowest level since Sept. 11, 2007, when crude hit an intraday low of USD 77.00.

Prices later recovered slightly to settle down USD 8.89 to USD 77.70 a barrel in New York, oil's lowest close since Sept. 10, 2007, when crude ended the day at USD 77.49.

In Europe, governments have moved to protect nervous bank depositors. Germany pledged to guarantee all private bank savings and CDs in the country, and Iceland and Denmark followed suit. Ireland went even further by also guaranteeing Irish banks' debts.

The United States will temporarily boost deposit insurance from $100,000 to $250,000 in cases where its banks or savings and loans fail.

Today many analyst mentions that THE GREAT DESPRESSION might be on track. Form today onwards I will stay cautious and monitor on what would really happen in our country financial system and economy growth. As I use to said, ANYTHING can happen during overnight.

Malaysiakini : ANWAR THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER OF MALAYSIA ?

IN my article on Thursday, October 9, 2008 Malaysiakini : ANWAR TO TAKE OVER. NOT NAJIB ? argue very well what would happen in 5 months to come. Today in THE STAR newspaper appears an updated date for Pakatan Rakyat to wrest control of the Federal government.

ANWAR SETS ANOTHER TAKEOVER DATE.

Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has set yet another deadline for Pakatan Rakyat to wrest control of the Federal government.

Now, he says it will happen before the end of the year. “It is not like something I will allow to linger for one or two years. The momentum will continue when the Parliament goes into session on Monday,” he told a large crowd during a rally at Padang Perdana here on Thursday night.

He repeated his assertion that he had the numbers to form the new government. Anwar said the “takeover” approach would be peaceful because Malaysia could not afford the Thai or Filipino mob style.

Although his speech fired the crowd into wanting more, Anwar stopped short of detailing his “takeover” modus operandi, saying it would remain a secret until the time was right. Anwar said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s decision to step down by March and hand over to his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak would not halt the takeover plan.

Speaking in English for a foreign media in attendance, Anwar said he was addressing the crowd at a critical time in the country’s history with the global economic crisis happening and Najib’s ascension as prime minister.

Anwar also predicted that the global economic crises would be worse than the Asian financial crises of 1998/1999, saying economists believe it would be similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

PKR strategic planning director Saifuddin Nasution Ismail later said Anwar had mailed to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong a copy of the letter sent to Abdullah on Sept 16.

Please refer the below article as well because it did mention about global economics crisis on whether Anwar will be able to face the global financial crisis if he becomes our prime minister. Friday, October 10, 2008 Malaysiakini : CAN NAJIB or ANWAR BE A GOOD FINANCE MINISTER ?

Malaysiakini : CAN NAJIB or ANWAR BE A GOOD FINANCE MINISTER ?

Can our current new finance minister weather the current global financial meltdown. It would be very though for Datuk Seri Najib for months to come if he becomes our new Prime Minister. Either this would be a Great Depression or something else, it is hard to predict right at this moment.

I don't know how good or how clever Datuk Seri Najib but for sure Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad is the better than him but this was a history.

Datuk Seri Najib is very good in calculating the budget and expenses for the defence ministry, can he weather or face the on going One of The Deadliest Disasters of all time. Greater than the mother of Tsunami and Earth Quake - GLOBAL FINANCIAL MELTDOWN.

This morning Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posted their third biggest losses in their historical index value and posted the second biggest decline in term of percentage . The DJIA drop -678.91 points or -7.33 % to close at 8,579.19 points.

In Datuk Seri Anwar manage to take over the new government and becomes our finance minister in five months to come, he would still face the same problem in our global financial meltdown. No matter who is going to be our 6th Prime Minister, I would say this would be the toughest job ever for the up coming Malaysia new Prime Minister next year.

Malaysiakini : BANK GUARANTEE RM 60000 If Financial Problem Strike ?

To my surprised my blog appear on CNN.com/asia, I was so shock to find out how my blog can reach at CNN.com/asia. I can't believe it. It just like a dream. My main intention in that article (Malaysiakini: DISASTER to COME in FINANCIAL MARKET Not POLITICs) was to alert the Malaysian people about what has really happen in our global financial system.

Everyone was talking about politics in Malaysia, change of new governments, Prime Minister to step down, Anwar to take over, Najib to fight back and etc......

But we must remember that if we don't pay a careful attention on this global financial problem, when time arrive we will be crying all the way and suffer the most.

We might be facing a bankruptcy in our National Bank. Who know ? This is One of The Deadliest Disasters of all time. Greater than the mother of Tsunami and Earth Quake.

Today we might live happily, enjoy the moment we have and talk about politics all the time but we wouldn't know whether this global financial problem will strike us just like a deadliest Cobra bite.

Lately European Union finance ministers swore to raise minimum bank deposit guarantees to 50,000 Euros (£38,000) as they battled to form a united front to deal with the global economic crisis.

In England, Prime Minister Gordon Brown has confirmed that the government plans to raise the guarantees for bank savings to £50,000 from £35,000 in a new banking law.

Protection of bank deposits has become a key public concern after the British government was forced to nationalise two mortgage lenders this year, Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley.

In a consultation document released in July, the Treasury proposed increasing the compensation limit to £50,000, on a per person per bank basis.

Do you know the guarantees figure or the compensation limits for bank savings in Malaysia ? I bet a lot of Malaysian people don't know that figure. RM 60,000.00 (sixty thousand ringgit) per person per bank basis if I'm not wrong. If the Malaysia financial systems collapse, what ever you kept in your savings will be eligible to maximum compensation of RM 60,000.00 only on a per person per bank basis !

KL Composite Index To Rebound or Just Move Sideway ?

Based on the charts, the KL Composite Index still managed to hold on the supporting level of 963.29 points when the index close yesterday at 970.19 points eventhough the index created new low at 959.49 points.

If we take a look on the charts and based on my drawing, it seems to be the Index is near to the bottom and might start to rebound.

Take a look at Point A, Point B and Point C. Please watch number 1 and 2. Any similarity ? Whenever there is a sharp drop in KL Composite Index during that time(refer Point B,1) the index will recover for few days before went down again.

After a period about two weeks when the index reach the bottom (refer Point B,2) it will start to climb back again but now, where is the bottom ? The index might either go down a little bit more (refer Point C,2) or stay sideway before the index start to climb up again. Don't be surprised if the index might touch 1,000 points again.

As I use to mention, this is just my own points of views. It cannot be consider accurate. It was based on my charts reading method. But lately the market react so negatively until what ever tools you use on the charts to find any rebound, the answer still the same - the market still heading south until we lost our confident towards the market.

Further because of global financial crisis, anything can happen in the overnight like what happen in Iceland country. Their country might be the first national country to declare bankruptcy if they cannot obtain any loan from Russia.