Friday, December 12, 2008

One More Sharp Downturn For KL Composite Index Before Trend Reversal ?

Yesterday night I was doing my research on KL Composite Index past history. I trace the chart back to 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and compare with the current 2008 World Financial Crisis.

I don't know how true the movement will be but if we want to compare the time frame of the down turn created in 1997, it appear that the movement almost the same with current 2008 chart.

We can use it as a guidance for us to trace where the bottom would be perform but we cannot use it as a guide to determine that the bottom has already been perform.

We must make use of these charts as a guide to trade but not as a guide to determine where would be the next course of the KL Composite Index. Based on the charts, use your judgement to determine where KL Composite Index is heading to ?

As we can see right at the moment everyone is watching what would really happen in U.S. economics. Every financial market in the world still takes Dow Jones Industrial Average as a guide to determine their next course of their financial market. Any huge movement in their index would cause the financial market to react.

To cut it short I would rather say that if the U.S. economics or if something really happen in the U.S., it can bring down the whole world financial market tumbling again if there are great news occurs (e.g. bad news, financial collapse, maybe terrorist attack in U.S or assassination of a president in U.S). Who knows ? Anything can happen in overnight.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for your efforts in identifying the pattern.

I do agree that we must not use historical trends as each epoch in history is different. Only to be used as a yardstick.

1997 was a "localised" event ie affecting mostly SEA countries. This round of trouble is attributable mainly from foreign troubles. Till their troubles are solved, our market will not perform.

What do you think?

lantern said...

well,the asian economy is expected to weather this stormy typhoon virtually unscathed or minimally impacted by the crisis brewing in the west if reports by the IMF and world economic agencies is correct-at least north east asia EX JAPAN ie hk taiwan china and korea will chart respectable gdp growth next year!!!
as for our mini sized local bourse it will continue be lacklustre and drift aimlessly failing to follow the general trend of wall street od hang seng