Thursday, February 5, 2009

Where Would The World Financial Crisis Heading To ?

Lately I was watching all sort of news flowing around the financial market and it seems that the current outlook for the next six months should pose a negative element. Whether we like it or not we must face the consequences.

For these few trading days, there isn't anything interesting to write about. The world major financial market are hovering or moving in a consolidation move. Most analyst are analysing the global financial impact for the next three to six months. They are examines what would the biggest impact or disaster that might not yet arise from this Mother of Tsunami in Global Financial Crisis.

Chart A : 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

Well today I would like to share my point of analysis on where is the next course for the KL Composite Index heading to ?

I don't know whether my analysis might be useful as an information to guide us for our preparation for the next battle with the Bear's but I can assure that from the past analysis and based on the charts, it did help me to overcome some of the obstacles that I facing during my trade in the share market.

Based on the calculation, the Malaysia share market will slowly move downwards sometimes in between the month of February and March. The market will eventually move towards the south pole without making any significant huge gains and will drag along for sometimes for about 2 to 3 months before any attempt to move up. Everything will depend on the reaction of the global financial market and crisis.

Chart B : 2008 World Financial Crisis.

From the chart it's self. I have identified certain high and low created during 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Based on that calculation, the last financial crisis (Chart A) took about 18 months to end.

If we take a look on the Chart B : the market had already enter 13 months of downtrend from the previous high recorded January 2008 (1) and now we are moving into a consolidation move since the beginning of January 2009 (5).

Look closely on the mark that I have point out. Point 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. See also the point that I have set for A, B, C, D and E. If we take a look and compare both of the charts, it shows that there are similarities on the way the charts move. We are now entering the consolidation move. Form Chart A, it took nearly 3 months for it to finish its technical uptrend and forming its consolidation move before it move down and create new low.

If we take a look and compare point 1 to 5 and A to D in Chart A and Chart B , they look almost the same. So we can assume or make a prediction that the current KL Composite Index might follow on what really happen in Chart A.

No doubt the two events; 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2008 World Financial Crisis are a different crisis, still we must not look down on the current charts shows. Because both of them are showing some similarity.

One more things, if we want to take these clues or these predictions and compare with each other, it would means that what really going to happen to the KL Composite Index, it would also means that it would happen to the world financial market. ( i.e Dow Jones, Financial Times, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Singapore Straits Times and etc ... etc ....)

Be well prepare for the SECOND ROUND for being slaughter by the BEAR'S. This times we might not even believe the way the world financial market being slaughter. It will be huge and the most deadliest slaughter.

Basically I would like to be positive towards the equity markets but if we check the latest news from any financial data release recently around the global, it is just like you won't know what would really happen in the next morning after you have waken up ...... or may be you might not wake up at all ..................

1 comment:

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