Thursday, March 26, 2009

Wave B Upwards Have Started? Start Your Engine ...?

Malaysia share market is doing very well. I was wondering why I have missed this special bandwagon which is moving up quite strongly. Now the questions are, should we start to build a new position right now? Were the world equity markets have make a trend reversal? For a few reasons I don't want to get involve in the share market right now because of on going UMNO general assembly.

I'm examine the share market right now whether the Malaysia share market move up in tandem with the surge in the world equities market or because of our Finance Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak recently announced that the Government will award RM 3.202 billion worth of projects this week or maybe because of the on going UMNO general assembly or maybe the time has arrived for our share market to move up.

If we check the world market movement, indeed the trends have change. What will happen to Dow Jones Industrial Average right now? According to few analysts the DJIA have take a turn from worst to better.

Current rally will not last long as correction will set in. After this correction the DJIA will try to climb even higher.


Cimb Analysis.

Wave “A” down leg since Oct 07 has already ended? The DJIA’s rebound towards the 7,500 level on Wednesday, above the 7,392 point 50% Fibonacci retracement (FR) of wave iii, is telling us that our current preferred wave count is probably wrong. The wave 5 down leg may have already ended in early March, completing the major wave A downtrend since Oct 07.

Major wave “B” may have started early this month. This should be followed by the major wave “B” rebound, which is expected to take 5-8 months to complete and will peak anytime between July and Oct. The 38.2-50% FR of Wave A targets a rebound to 9,400-10,300 points while a more bullish 61.8% FR targets 11,245 points for the DJIA.

Minor wave i just started, wait for correction to accumulate. The first leg of the wave “B” kicked in a fortnight back but is in its final leg. We expect Asian markets to pull back, probably towards the 50-61.8% FR once the rebound ends to complete wave ii. This should offer investors an opportunity to accumulate stocks.

1 comment:

azhar said...

good information & analysis..